Daily Papers

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in natural language understanding and task generalization. However, their application to structured data analysis remains fragile due to inconsistencies in schema interpretation, misalignment between user intent and model output, and limited mechanisms for self-correction when failures occur. This paper introduces the STROT Framework (Structured Task Reasoning and Output Transformation), a method for structured prompting and feedback-driven transformation logic generation aimed at improving the reliability and semantic alignment of LLM-based analytical workflows. STROT begins with lightweight schema introspection and sample-based field classification, enabling dynamic context construction that captures both the structure and statistical profile of the input data. This contextual information is embedded in structured prompts that guide the model toward generating task-specific, interpretable outputs. To address common failure modes in complex queries, STROT incorporates a refinement mechanism in which the model iteratively revises its outputs based on execution feedback and validation signals. Unlike conventional approaches that rely on static prompts or single-shot inference, STROT treats the LLM as a reasoning agent embedded within a controlled analysis loop -- capable of adjusting its output trajectory through planning and correction. The result is a robust and reproducible framework for reasoning over structured data with LLMs, applicable to diverse data exploration and analysis tasks where interpretability, stability, and correctness are essential.

The validity screen (Cacioli, 2026d, 2026e) classifies LLM confidence signals as Valid, Indeterminate, or Invalid. We test whether these classifications predict selective prediction performance. Twenty frontier LLMs from seven families were evaluated on 524 items across six cognitive tracks. Valid models show mean Type 2 AUROC = .624 (SD = .048). Invalid models show mean AUROC = .357 (SD = .231). Cohen's d = 2.81, p = .002. The tiers order monotonically: Invalid (.357) < Indeterminate (.554) < Valid (.624). Split-half cross-validation yields median d = 1.77, P(d > 0) = 1.0 across 1,000 splits. The three-tier classification accounts for 47% of the variance in AUROC. DeepSeek-R1 drops from 85.3% accuracy at full coverage to 11.3% at 10% coverage. The screen predicts the criterion. For selective prediction, the screen matters.

We develop a rigorous walk-forward validation framework for algorithmic trading designed to mitigate overfitting and lookahead bias. Our methodology combines interpretable hypothesis-driven signal generation with reinforcement learning and strict out-of-sample testing. The framework enforces strict information set discipline, employs rolling window validation across 34 independent test periods, maintains complete interpretability through natural language hypothesis explanations, and incorporates realistic transaction costs and position constraints. Validating five market microstructure patterns across 100 US equities from 2015 to 2024, the system yields modest annualized returns (0.55%, Sharpe ratio 0.33) with exceptional downside protection (maximum drawdown -2.76%) and market-neutral characteristics (beta = 0.058). Performance exhibits strong regime dependence, generating positive returns during high-volatility periods (0.60% quarterly, 2020-2024) while underperforming in stable markets (-0.16%, 2015-2019). We report statistically insignificant aggregate results (p-value 0.34) to demonstrate a reproducible, honest validation protocol that prioritizes interpretability and extends naturally to advanced hypothesis generators, including large language models. The key empirical finding reveals that daily OHLCV-based microstructure signals require elevated information arrival and trading activity to function effectively. The framework provides complete mathematical specifications and open-source implementation, establishing a template for rigorous trading system evaluation that addresses the reproducibility crisis in quantitative finance research. For researchers, practitioners, and regulators, this work demonstrates that interpretable algorithmic trading strategies can be rigorously validated without sacrificing transparency or regulatory compliance.

Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) offer transformative potential, but decoding neural signals presents significant challenges. The core premise of this paper is built around demonstrating methods to elucidate the underlying low-dimensional geometric structure present in high-dimensional brainwave data in order to assist in downstream BCI-related neural classification tasks. We demonstrate two pipelines related to electroencephalography (EEG) signal processing: (1) a preliminary pipeline removing noise from individual EEG channels, and (2) a downstream manifold learning pipeline uncovering geometric structure across networks of EEG channels. We conduct preliminary validation using two EEG datasets and situate our demonstration in the context of the BCI-relevant imagined digit decoding problem. Our preliminary pipeline uses an attention-based EEG filtration network to extract clean signal from individual EEG channels. Our primary pipeline uses a fast Fourier transform, a Laplacian eigenmap, a discrete analog of Ricci flow via Ollivier's notion of Ricci curvature, and a graph convolutional network to perform dimensionality reduction on high-dimensional multi-channel EEG data in order to enable regularizable downstream classification. Our system achieves competitive performance with existing signal processing and classification benchmarks; we demonstrate a mean test correlation coefficient of >0.95 at 2 dB on semi-synthetic neural denoising and a downstream EEG-based classification accuracy of 0.97 on distinguishing digit- versus non-digit- thoughts. Results are preliminary and our geometric machine learning pipeline should be validated by more extensive follow-up studies; generalizing these results to larger inter-subject sample sizes, different hardware systems, and broader use cases will be crucial.

Weight-only quantization is important for compressing Large Language Models (LLMs). Inspired by the spirit of classical magnitude pruning, we study whether the magnitude of weight updates during reasoning-incentivized fine-tuning can provide valuable signals for quantizing Large Reasoning Models (LRMs). We hypothesize that the smallest and largest weight updates during fine-tuning are more important than those of intermediate magnitude, a phenomenon we term "protecting both ends". Upon hypothesis validation, we introduce QuantLRM, which stands for weight quantization of LRMs via fine-tuning signals. We fit simple restricted quadratic functions on weight updates to protect both ends. By multiplying the average quadratic values with the count of zero weight updates of channels, we compute channel importance that is more effective than using activation or second-order information. We run QuantLRM to quantize various fine-tuned models (including supervised, direct preference optimization, and reinforcement learning fine-tuning) over four reasoning benchmarks (AIME-120, FOLIO, temporal sequences, and GPQA-Diamond) and empirically find that QuantLRM delivers a consistent improvement for LRMs quantization, with an average improvement of 6.55% on a reinforcement learning fine-tuned model. Also supporting non-fine-tuned LRMs, QuantLRM gathers effective signals via pseudo-fine-tuning, which greatly enhances its applicability.

LLM confidence signals are used for abstention, routing, and safety-critical decisions. No standard practice exists for checking whether a confidence signal carries item-level information before building on it. We transfer the validity screening principle from clinical personality assessment (PAI, MMPI-3) as a portable protocol for benchmark-based LLM confidence data. The protocol specifies three core indices (L, Fp, RBS), a structural indicator (TRIN), and an item-sensitivity statistic, computed from a single 2x2 contingency table. A three-tier classification system (Invalid, Indeterminate, Valid) draws on four clinical traditions. Validated on 20 frontier LLMs across 524 items, four models are classified Invalid, two Indeterminate. Valid-profile models show mean r = .18 (15/16 significant). Invalid-profile models show mean r = -.20 (d = 2.48). Cross-benchmark validation on 18 models using MMLU with verbalized confidence and on external data from Yang et al. (2024) confirms the screen transfers across benchmarks and probe formats. All data and code: https://github.com/synthiumjp/validity-scaling-llm

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), a major chronic respiratory disease with persistent airflow limitation, is a leading global cause of disability and mortality. Respiratory spirogram time series, routinely collected during pulmonary function tests (PFTs), play a critical role in the early detection of repsiratory diseases and in monitoring lung function over time. However, most current AI models for COPD diagnosis are limited to outputting classification results without providing a rationale for their diagnostic process, while current Large Language Models (LLMs) cannot understand spirograms yet, which severely limits their clinical trust and adoption. To tackle this challenge, we leverage a cohort of 234,028 individuals from the UK Biobank (UKB) to propose SpiroLLM, the first multimodal large language model that can understand spirogram. The model extracts morphological features from respiratory curves via a SpiroEncoder and aligns them with PFT numerical values in a unified latent space using a SpiroProjector, ultimately empowering a large language model to generate a comprehensive diagnostic report. Experimental results confirm that SpiroLLM achieved a diagnostic AUROC of 0.8980 (95% CI: 0.8820-0.9132). In a robustness test with missing core data, it maintained a 100% valid response rate, far surpassing the 13.4% of a text-only model and showcasing the superiority of its multimodal design. This work demonstrates the substantial potential of deeply fusing physiological signals with large language models, establishing a new paradigm for the next generation of interpretable and reliable clinical decision support tools.

Understanding what generative models retain from training data remains challenging, with implications for copyright and privacy. Beyond verbatim reproduction, models can encode subtler traces of their training data that never surface in their outputs yet remain exploitable. We study this regime for Rectified Flows, which are increasingly used in deployed generative systems. We analyse the interpolation path X_λ= (1-λ)X_0 + λX_1 that defines the Rectified Flow training. We show that a gap exists between the reconstruction of train and test data that follows a bell-shaped curve over λ, wich accumulates during training, while the validation metrics remain stable. The signal has a maximum whose location we derive in closed form under Gaussian assumptions. We validate these predictions on both audio and images and show that the bell-shaped structure is universal, while the peak prediction holds when our assumptions are satisfied. As a proof of concept, we exploit this specific λ-resolved structure to perform a Membership Inference Attack, distinguishing members of the training set from non-members.

Large Language Models (LLMs) in multi-agent systems (MAS) have shown promise for complex tasks, yet current training methods lack principled ways to connect system-level evaluation with agent- and message-level learning. We propose a theoretical framework that unifies cooperative game-theoretic attribution with process reward modeling to transform system evaluation to agent credit to response-level signals. Unlike prior approaches that rely only on attribution (Shapley) or step-level labels (PRM), our method produces local, signed, and credit-conserving signals. In success cases, Shapley-based credit assignment fairly allocates outcomes across agents and is refined into per-message rewards that promote cooperation while discouraging redundancy or sabotage; in failure cases, first-error localization yields repair-aware preferences that penalize harmful steps while rewarding corrective attempts. The resulting signals are bounded, cooperative, and directly compatible with reinforcement- or preference-based post-training, providing a unified and auditable pathway from global evaluation to local supervision in LLM multi-agent training. Our contribution is conceptual: we present a theoretical foundation and training signals, leaving empirical validation for future work.

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is a common brain disorder in children that can persist into adulthood, affecting social, academic, and career life. Early diagnosis is crucial for managing these impacts on patients and the healthcare system but is often labor-intensive and time-consuming. This paper presents a novel method to improve ADHD diagnosis precision and timeliness by leveraging Deep Learning (DL) approaches and electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. We introduce ADHDeepNet, a DL model that utilizes comprehensive temporal-spatial characterization, attention modules, and explainability techniques optimized for EEG signals. ADHDeepNet integrates feature extraction and refinement processes to enhance ADHD diagnosis. The model was trained and validated on a dataset of 121 participants (61 ADHD, 60 Healthy Controls), employing nested cross-validation for robust performance. The proposed two-stage methodology uses a 10-fold cross-subject validation strategy. Initially, each iteration optimizes the model's hyper-parameters with inner 2-fold cross-validation. Then, Additive Gaussian Noise (AGN) with various standard deviations and magnification levels is applied for data augmentation. ADHDeepNet achieved 100% sensitivity and 99.17% accuracy in classifying ADHD/HC subjects. To clarify model explainability and identify key brain regions and frequency bands for ADHD diagnosis, we analyzed the learned weights and activation patterns of the model's primary layers. Additionally, t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) visualized high-dimensional data, aiding in interpreting the model's decisions. This study highlights the potential of DL and EEG in enhancing ADHD diagnosis accuracy and efficiency.

Protein binder design has largely optimized for affinity alone, leaving conformational selectivity unaddressed: for allosteric targets such as kinases, nuclear receptors, and GPCRs, a binder that engages both active and inactive states provides no functional specificity regardless of how tightly it binds. We introduce AlloGen, a modular framework that decouples backbone generation from a learned state-selectivity scorer Q_θ, an SE(3)-invariant interface graph transformer trained via a two-phase curriculum that first learns interface geometry before imposing conformational discrimination. Because Q_θ is fully differentiable and generator-agnostic, it integrates with any backbone generator as a passive reranker or an active gradient-based guide without retraining. Across a diverse benchmark of proteins spanning multiple families and conformational mechanisms, AlloGen consistently identifies binders that preferentially recognize desired structural states while rejecting alternative conformations. Experimental validation on calmodulin further demonstrates that these computational selectivity signals translate to physical molecules, yielding de novo peptides that bind the desired holo conformation while exhibiting no detectable binding to the apo state. Together, these results establish conformational selectivity as a learnable property and provide a general framework for state-selective protein binder design.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit degraded performance under prompt compression, but the mechanisms remain poorly understood. We introduce the Compression-Decay Comprehension Test (CDCT), a benchmark that independently measures constraint compliance (CC) and semantic accuracy (SA) across compression levels. We evaluate 9 frontier LLMs across 8 concepts using 5 compression levels from extreme (c=0.0, ~2 words) to none (c=1.0, ~135 words). A three-judge LLM jury achieves almost perfect inter-rater agreement on CC (Fleiss' appa=0.90). We observe a universal U-curve pattern in constraint compliance (97.2% prevalence), with violations peaking at medium compression (c=0.5, ~27 words). Counterintuitively, models perform better at extreme compression than medium lengths. The dimensions are statistically orthogonal (r=0.193, p=0.084), with constraint effects 2.9x larger than semantic effects. Experimental validation via RLHF ablation confirms our constraint salience hypothesis: removing "helpfulness" signals improves CC by 598% on average (71/72 trials, p<0.001), with 79% achieving perfect compliance. This demonstrates that RLHF-trained helpfulness behaviors are the dominant cause of constraint violations at medium compression. Reasoning models outperform efficient models by 27.5% (Cohen's d=0.96). Our findings reveal a fundamental tension between RLHF alignment and instruction-following, providing actionable guidelines for improving deployed systems.

Radar-based contactless cardiac monitoring has become a popular research direction recently, but the fine-grained electrocardiogram (ECG) signal is still hard to reconstruct from millimeter-wave radar signal. The key obstacle is to decouple the cardiac activities in the electrical domain (i.e., ECG) from that in the mechanical domain (i.e., heartbeat), and most existing research only uses pure data-driven methods to map such domain transformation as a black box. Therefore, this work first proposes a signal model for domain transformation, and then a novel deep learning framework called radarODE is designed to fuse the temporal and morphological features extracted from radar signals and generate ECG. In addition, ordinary differential equations are embedded in radarODE as a decoder to provide morphological prior, helping the convergence of the model training and improving the robustness under body movements. After being validated on the dataset, the proposed radarODE achieves better performance compared with the benchmark in terms of missed detection rate, root mean square error, Pearson correlation coefficient with the improvement of 9%, 16% and 19%, respectively. The validation results imply that radarODE is capable of recovering ECG signals from radar signals with high fidelity and can be potentially implemented in real-life scenarios.

Traffic Management Centers (TMCs) routinely use traffic cameras to provide situational awareness regarding traffic, road, and weather conditions. Camera footage is quite useful for a variety of diagnostic purposes; yet, most footage is kept for only a few days, if at all. This is largely due to the fact that currently, identification of notable footage is done via manual review by human operators---a laborious and inefficient process. In this article, we propose a semantics-oriented approach to analyzing sequential image data, and demonstrate its application for automatic detection of real-world, anomalous events in weather and traffic conditions. Our approach constructs semantic vector representations of image contents from textual labels which can be easily obtained from off-the-shelf, pretrained image labeling software. These semantic label vectors are used to construct semantic topic signals---time series representations of physical processes---using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model. By detecting anomalies in the topic signals, we identify notable footage corresponding to winter storms and anomalous traffic congestion. In validation against real-world events, anomaly detection using semantic topic signals significantly outperforms detection using any individual label signal.

Modern large-scale ranking systems operate within a sophisticated landscape of competing objectives, operational constraints, and evolving product requirements. Progress in this domain is increasingly bottlenecked by the engineering context constraint: the arduous process of translating ambiguous product intent into reasonable, executable, verifiable hypotheses, rather than by modeling techniques alone. We present GEARS (Generative Engine for Agentic Ranking Systems), a framework that reframes ranking optimization as an autonomous discovery process within a programmable experimentation environment. Rather than treating optimization as static model selection, GEARS leverages Specialized Agent Skills to encapsulate ranking expert knowledge into reusable reasoning capabilities, enabling operators to steer systems via high-level intent vibe personalization. Furthermore, to ensure production reliability, the framework incorporates validation hooks to enforce statistical robustness and filter out brittle policies that overfit short-term signals. Experimental validation across diverse product surfaces demonstrates that GEARS consistently identifies superior, near-Pareto-efficient policies by synergizing algorithmic signals with deep ranking context while maintaining rigorous deployment stability.

Computer-aided design (CAD) is the backbone of modern industrial design, yet learned CAD generators still fall short of real engineering pipelines: they neither iterate like engineers nor evaluate what engineering requires. Prior work has treated CAD generation as two disjoint steps, part synthesis and assembly, where the former is graded by proximity to a gold reference and the latter, when handled at all, is reduced to a separate constraint solving step. In this work, we introduce a more industry-native task formulation that requires a model to produce a fully assembled multi-part STEP file from a free-form engineering brief, which is then validated via finite element analysis (FEA). FEA validation reveals that Codex (GPT-5.5) and Claude Code (Opus-4.7) agents do not produce a single strict-passing artifact in the main first-attempt sweep, with the best configuration meeting only about 20% of typed requirements on average. Moreover, we introduce two additional supervision signals, a novel text-only blueprint schema and a 21-view image renderer that aids the agent's visual inspection, that better align the generation loop with how engineers iterate in practice. On S2O and Fusion360, the same feedback tools improve geometric reconstruction, with GPT-5.5/xhigh rising from 0.444 to 0.592 Box-IoU on S2O and from 0.397 to 0.505 on Fusion360. Together these signals move CAD programs toward artifacts that are not only visually plausible but also checked against physical and structural requirements.

Continuous cough monitors can greatly aid doctors in home monitoring and treatment of respiratory diseases. Although many algorithms have been proposed, they still face limitations in data privacy and short-term monitoring. Edge-AI offers a promising solution by processing privacy-sensitive data near the source, but challenges arise in deploying resource-intensive algorithms on constrained devices. From a suitable selection of audio and kinematic signals, our methodology aims at the optimal selection of features via Recursive Feature Elimination with Cross-Validation (RFECV), which exploits the explainability of the selected XGB model. Additionally, it analyzes the use of Mel spectrogram features, instead of the more common MFCC. Moreover, a set of hyperparameters for a multimodal implementation of the classifier is explored. Finally, it evaluates the performance based on clinically relevant event-based metrics. We apply our methodology to develop Cough-E, an energy-efficient, multimodal and edge AI cough detection algorithm. It exploits audio and kinematic data in two distinct classifiers, jointly cooperating for a balanced energy and performance trade-off. We demonstrate that our algorithm can be executed in real-time on an ARM Cortex M33 microcontroller. Cough-E achieves a 70.56\% energy saving when compared to the audio-only approach, at the cost of a 1.26\% relative performance drop, resulting in a 0.78 F1-score. Both Cough-E and the edge-aware model optimization methodology are publicly available as open-source code. This approach demonstrates the benefits of the proposed hardware-aware methodology to enable privacy-preserving cough monitors on the edge, paving the way to efficient cough monitoring.

Maintainability is a core dimension of software engineering, shaping how code is written, reviewed, and developed over time. While coding agents have demonstrated strong performance on single-issue tasks, it remains unclear how maintainable their code is when future agents build on top of it, potentially leading to compounding downstream effects. We investigate how agent code compares to human code in these maintenance settings, presenting CodeThread, a framework to construct controlled experiments from repository-level coding benchmarks. Applying CodeThread to four frontier coding agents and four benchmarks, we find that agents are less effective at resolving tasks when building on agent code compared to human code, with task resolve rate drops of up to 13.1%. Regression analysis reveals that many traditional software engineering maintainability metrics do not explain this difference. Instead, the clearest signals are subtler behavioral differences in agent code, such as changes to input validation and error handling, along with differences in downstream code size and task difficulty. These findings highlight the need to evaluate these systems not only by immediate task resolution but also by code maintainability, and point to potential sources of downstream errors introduced by agent code.

On-policy distillation (OPD) trains student models under their own induced distribution while leveraging supervision from stronger teachers. We identify a failure mode of OPD: as training progresses, on-policy rollouts can undergo abrupt length inflation, causing truncated trajectories to dominate the training data. This truncation collapse coincides with abrupt repetition saturation and induces biased gradient signals, leading to severe training instability and sharp degradation in validation performance. We attribute this problem to the interaction between student-induced data collection and the distillation objective, which implicitly favors long and repetitive rollouts. To address this issue, we propose StableOPD, a stabilized OPD framework that combines a reference-based divergence constraint with rollout mixture distillation. These together mitigate repetition-induced length inflation and further stabilize OPD training. Across multiple math reasoning datasets, our approach prevents truncation collapse, stabilizes training dynamics, and improves performance by 7.2% on average.

Aligning language models with human preferences presents significant challenges, particularly in achieving personalization without incurring excessive computational costs. Existing methods rely on reward signals and additional annotated data, limiting their scalability and adaptability to diverse human values. To address these challenges, we introduce Persona-judge, a novel discriminative paradigm that enables training-free personalized alignment with unseen preferences. Instead of optimizing policy parameters through external reward feedback, Persona-judge leverages the intrinsic preference judgment capabilities of the model. Specifically, a draft model generates candidate tokens conditioned on a given preference, while a judge model, embodying another preference, cross-validates the predicted tokens whether to be accepted. Experimental results demonstrate that Persona-judge, using the inherent preference evaluation mechanisms of the model, offers a scalable and computationally efficient solution to personalized alignment, paving the way for more adaptive customized alignment. Our code is available here.

Constructing large-scale datasets for the GitHub issue resolution task is crucial for both training and evaluating the software engineering capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the traditional process for creating such benchmarks is notoriously challenging and labor-intensive, particularly in the stages of setting up evaluation environments, grading test outcomes, and validating task instances. In this paper, we propose SWE-Factory, an automated pipeline designed to address these challenges. To tackle these issues, our pipeline integrates three core automated components. First, we introduce SWE-Builder, a multi-agent system that automates evaluation environment construction, which employs four specialized agents that work in a collaborative, iterative loop and leverages an environment memory pool to enhance efficiency. Second, we introduce a standardized, exit-code-based grading method that eliminates the need for manually writing custom parsers. Finally, we automate the fail2pass validation process using these reliable exit code signals. Experiments on 671 issues across four programming languages show that our pipeline can effectively construct valid task instances; for example, with GPT-4.1-mini, our SWE-Builder constructs 269 valid instances at 0.045 per instance, while with Gemini-2.5-flash, it achieves comparable performance at the lowest cost of 0.024 per instance. We also demonstrate that our exit-code-based grading achieves 100% accuracy compared to manual inspection, and our automated fail2pass validation reaches a precision of 0.92 and a recall of 1.00. We hope our automated pipeline will accelerate the collection of large-scale, high-quality GitHub issue resolution datasets for both training and evaluation. Our code and datasets are released at https://github.com/DeepSoftwareAnalytics/swe-factory.

Data selection is a key component of efficient instruction tuning for large language models, as recent work has shown that data quality often matters more than data quantity. Accordingly, prior studies have introduced various multi-dimensional heuristics to evaluate and filter instruction data. However, most existing methods rely on static task-agnostic and model-agnostic weighting schemes, which overlook the varying requirements of specific downstream tasks and the differing pre-existing capabilities of models. In this paper, we propose a framework for learning multi-indicator weights that jointly adapts data selection to both the downstream task and the specific model. Our method identifies optimal weight configurations without full-scale fine-tuning by utilizing in-context learning (ICL) signals on compact tiny-validation sets. These signals serve as efficient performance proxies that ensure high-fidelity evaluation at minimal computational cost. Experiments across multiple benchmarks and model families, including Mistral, Qwen, and Llama, show that the approach achieves performance comparable to or exceeding full-dataset tuning while using only 30\% of the training samples on GSM8K. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a trade-off between semantic diversity and logical complexity in reasoning tasks, highlighting the necessity of joint task-model adaptation.

Detecting the tiny Doppler shifts induced by Earth-mass planets in stellar radial-velocity measurements remains extremely challenging due to stellar activity. Many deep-learning methods performing well on simulated data remain difficult to apply reliably on real stellar spectra. The aim of this work is to develop a deep-learning framework that generalizes to real, unseen spectra and improves the detectability of Earth-mass planets in radial-velocity data. We train artificial neural networks on HARPS-N solar spectra with injected planetary signals, using physics-motivated spectral representations based on flux and line-formation temperature, together with their velocity gradients. Two training strategies are explored: hold-out testing and cross-validation. Model robustness is enhanced through genetic-algorithm-based hyperparameter optimization, and predictive uncertainty is quantified using Monte Carlo dropout. Our most precise neural network model reliably retrieves, under the cross-validation strategy, the amplitudes, phases, and orbital periods of planetary signals with amplitudes greater than or equal to 25 cm/s and periods between 10 and 550 days. In addition, in all cases tested here, the successfully recovered signals correspond to the most significant peaks in the periodograms of the Doppler-shift predictions. Temperature-based spectral-shell representations consistently outperform flux-based shells. We also release doppleriann, a Python package implementing the proposed framework. Our results demonstrate that combining physically motivated spectral representations with deep learning provides a promising pathway toward the detection of Earth-mass planets in radial-velocity data from real observations, supported by a modeling framework that is both physically grounded and statistically rigorous, incorporating uncertainty quantification and optimized training strategies.

This paper introduces MarketSenseAI, an innovative framework leveraging GPT-4's advanced reasoning for selecting stocks in financial markets. By integrating Chain of Thought and In-Context Learning, MarketSenseAI analyzes diverse data sources, including market trends, news, fundamentals, and macroeconomic factors, to emulate expert investment decision-making. The development, implementation, and validation of the framework are elaborately discussed, underscoring its capability to generate actionable and interpretable investment signals. A notable feature of this work is employing GPT-4 both as a predictive mechanism and signal evaluator, revealing the significant impact of the AI-generated explanations on signal accuracy, reliability and acceptance. Through empirical testing on the competitive S&P 100 stocks over a 15-month period, MarketSenseAI demonstrated exceptional performance, delivering excess alpha of 10% to 30% and achieving a cumulative return of up to 72% over the period, while maintaining a risk profile comparable to the broader market. Our findings highlight the transformative potential of Large Language Models in financial decision-making, marking a significant leap in integrating generative AI into financial analytics and investment strategies.

Large language models can generate plausible game code, but turning this capability into iterative creative improvement remains difficult. In practice, single-shot generation often produces brittle runtime behavior, weak accumulation of experience across versions, and creativity scores that are too subjective to serve as reliable optimization signals. A further limitation is that mechanics are frequently treated only as post-hoc descriptions, rather than as explicit objects that can be planned, tracked, preserved, and evaluated during generation. This report presents CreativeGame, a multi-agent system for iterative HTML5 game generation that addresses these issues through four coupled ideas: a proxy reward centered on programmatic signals rather than pure LLM judgment; lineage-scoped memory for cross-version experience accumulation; runtime validation integrated into both repair and reward; and a mechanic-guided planning loop in which retrieved mechanic knowledge is converted into an explicit mechanic plan before code generation begins. The goal is not merely to produce a playable artifact in one step, but to support interpretable version-to-version evolution. The current system contains 71 stored lineages, 88 saved nodes, and a 774-entry global mechanic archive, implemented in 6{,}181 lines of Python together with inspection and visualization tooling. The system is therefore substantial enough to support architectural analysis, reward inspection, and real lineage-level case studies rather than only prompt-level demos. A real 4-generation lineage shows that mechanic-level innovation can emerge in later versions and can be inspected directly through version-to-version records. The central contribution is therefore not only game generation, but a concrete pipeline for observing progressive evolution through explicit mechanic change.

Benchmarks shape progress in AI research. A useful benchmark should be both difficult and realistic: questions should challenge frontier models while also reflecting real-world usage. Yet, current paradigms face a difficulty-realism tension: exam-style benchmarks are often made artificially difficult with limited real-world value, while benchmarks based on real user interaction often skew toward easy, high-frequency problems. In this work, we explore a radically different paradigm: assessing models on unsolved questions. Rather than a static benchmark scored once, we curate unsolved questions and evaluate models asynchronously over time with validator-assisted screening and community verification. We introduce UQ, a testbed of 500 challenging, diverse questions sourced from Stack Exchange, spanning topics from CS theory and math to sci-fi and history, probing capabilities including reasoning, factuality, and browsing. UQ is difficult and realistic by construction: unsolved questions are often hard and naturally arise when humans seek answers, thus solving them yields direct real-world value. Our contributions are threefold: (1) UQ-Dataset and its collection pipeline combining rule-based filters, LLM judges, and human review to ensure question quality (e.g., well-defined and difficult); (2) UQ-Validators, compound validation strategies that leverage the generator-validator gap to provide evaluation signals and pre-screen candidate solutions for human review; and (3) UQ-Platform, an open platform where experts collectively verify questions and solutions. The top model passes UQ-validation on only 15% of questions, and preliminary human verification has already identified correct answers among those that passed. UQ charts a path for evaluating frontier models on real-world, open-ended challenges, where success pushes the frontier of human knowledge. We release UQ at https://uq.stanford.edu.

It is known that human speech and certain animal vocalizations can convey meaningful content because we can decipher the content that a given utterance does convey. This paper explores an alternative approach to determining whether a signal is meaningful, one that analyzes only the signal itself and is independent of what the conveyed meaning might be. We devise a method that takes a waveform as input and outputs a score indicating its degree of `meaningfulness`. We cluster contiguous portions of the input to minimize the total description length, and then take the length of the code of the assigned cluster labels as meaningfulness score. We evaluate our method empirically, against several baselines, and show that it is the only one to give a high score to human speech in various languages and with various speakers, a moderate score to animal vocalizations from birds and orcas, and a low score to ambient noise from various sources.

We consider the task of mapping pseudocode to long programs that are functionally correct. Given test cases as a mechanism to validate programs, we search over the space of possible translations of the pseudocode to find a program that passes the validation. However, without proper credit assignment to localize the sources of program failures, it is difficult to guide search toward more promising programs. We propose to perform credit assignment based on signals from compilation errors, which constitute 88.7% of program failures. Concretely, we treat the translation of each pseudocode line as a discrete portion of the program, and whenever a synthesized program fails to compile, an error localization method tries to identify the portion of the program responsible for the failure. We then focus search over alternative translations of the pseudocode for those portions. For evaluation, we collected the SPoC dataset (Search-based Pseudocode to Code) containing 18,356 programs with human-authored pseudocode and test cases. Under a budget of 100 program compilations, performing search improves the synthesis success rate over using the top-one translation of the pseudocode from 25.6% to 44.7%.

Verbal confidence elicitation is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from LLMs. We tested whether seven instruction-tuned open-weight models (3-9B parameters, four families) produce verbalised confidence that meets minimal validity criteria for item-level Type-2 discrimination under minimal numeric elicitation with greedy decoding. In a pre-registered study (OSF: osf.io/azbvx), 524 TriviaQA items were administered under numeric (0-100) and categorical (10-class) elicitation to eight models at Q5_K_M quantisation on consumer hardware, yielding 8,384 deterministic trials. A psychometric validity screen was applied to each model-format cell. All seven instruct models were classified Invalid on numeric confidence (H2 confirmed, 7/7 vs. predicted >=4/7), with a mean ceiling rate of 91.7% (H1 confirmed). Categorical elicitation did not rescue validity. Instead, it disrupted task performance in six of seven models, producing accuracy below 5% (H4 not confirmed). Token-level logprobability did not usefully predict verbalised confidence under the observed variance regime (H5 confirmed, mean cross-validated R^2 < 0.01). Within the reasoning-distilled model, reasoning-trace length showed a strong negative partial correlation with confidence (rho = -0.36, p < .001), consistent with the Reasoning Contamination Effect. These results do not imply that internal uncertainty representations are absent. They show that minimal verbal elicitation fails to preserve internal signals at the output interface in this model-size regime. Psychometric screening should precede any downstream use of such signals.

Same-model self-verification, prompting a model to audit its own predicted answer, is a plausible confidence signal for selective prediction, but its practical value remains unclear once strong likelihood-based baselines are taken seriously. We evaluate self-verification against two such baselines, LL-AVG and LL-SUM, on ARC-Challenge and TruthfulQA-MC across multiple model families, scales, and prompt variants. We measure not only correctness ranking, but also abstention quality through AURC and operating-point analyses. The results are sharply task- and model-dependent. On ARC-Challenge, self-verification substantially improves over LL-AVG for Phi-2 and the Qwen models, with the largest gains appearing in Qwen-7B. On TruthfulQA-MC, however, the signal is less reliable: smaller models can become prompt-sensitive, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-8B degrades relative to LL-AVG, and LL-SUM often remains the stronger practical baseline. We therefore do not treat self-verification as a general-purpose uncertainty estimator. In this setting, it is better understood as a conditional confidence signal whose value depends on task type, model family, prompt formulation, and, crucially, the baseline it must beat.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive problem-solving capabilities in mathematics through step-by-step reasoning chains. However, they are susceptible to reasoning errors that impact the quality of subsequent reasoning chains and the final answer due to language models' autoregressive token-by-token generating nature. Recent works have proposed adopting external verifiers to guide the generation of reasoning paths, but existing works utilize models that have been trained with step-by-step labels to assess the correctness of token-by-token reasoning chains. Consequently, they struggle to recognize discriminative details of tokens within a reasoning path and lack the ability to evaluate whether an intermediate reasoning path is on a promising track toward the correct final answer. To amend the lack of sound and token-grained math-verification signals, we devise a novel training scheme for verifiers that apply token-level supervision with the expected cumulative reward (i.e., value). Furthermore, we propose a practical formulation of the cumulative reward by reducing it to finding the probability of future correctness of the final answer and thereby enabling the empirical estimation of the value. Experimental results on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that Token-Supervised Value Model (TVM) can outperform step-by-step verifiers on GSM8K and MATH with Mistral and Llama.

ASR Error Detection (AED) models aim to post-process the output of Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems, in order to detect transcription errors. Modern approaches usually use text-based input, comprised solely of the ASR transcription hypothesis, disregarding additional signals from the ASR model. Instead, we propose to utilize the ASR system's word-level confidence scores for improving AED performance. Specifically, we add an ASR Confidence Embedding (ACE) layer to the AED model's encoder, allowing us to jointly encode the confidence scores and the transcribed text into a contextualized representation. Our experiments show the benefits of ASR confidence scores for AED, their complementary effect over the textual signal, as well as the effectiveness and robustness of ACE for combining these signals. To foster further research, we publish a novel AED dataset consisting of ASR outputs on the LibriSpeech corpus with annotated transcription errors.

When a language model asserts that "the capital of Australia is Sydney," does it know this is wrong? We characterize the geometry of correctness representations across 9 models from 5 architecture families. The structure is simple: the discriminative signal occupies 3-8 dimensions, performance degrades with additional dimensions, and no nonlinear classifier improves over linear separation. Centroid distance in the low-dimensional subspace matches trained probe performance (0.90 AUC), enabling few-shot detection: on GPT-2, 25 labeled examples achieve 89% of full-data accuracy. We validate causally through activation steering: the learned direction produces 10.9 percentage point changes in error rates while random directions show no effect. Internal probes achieve 0.80-0.97 AUC; output-based methods (P(True), semantic entropy) achieve only 0.44-0.64 AUC. The correctness signal exists internally but is not expressed in outputs. That centroid distance matches probe performance indicates class separation is a mean shift, making detection geometric rather than learned.

Most vehicle predictive maintenance systems rely exclusively on internal diagnostic signals and are validated on deterministic synthetic data, limiting the credibility of reported metrics. This paper presents a simulation-validated proof-of-concept framework for V2X-augmented predictive maintenance, integrating on-board sensor streams with external contextual signals -- road quality, weather, traffic density, and driver behaviour -- acquired via V2X communication and third-party APIs, with inference at the vehicle edge. Field validation on instrumented vehicles is identified as the required next step. Three experiments address common shortcomings of prior work. A feature group ablation study shows that V2X contextual features contribute a 2.6-point F1 gain, with full context removal reducing macro F1 from 0.855 to 0.807. On the AI4I 2020 real-world industrial failure dataset (10,000 samples, five failure modes), LightGBM achieves AUC-ROC of 0.973 under 5-fold stratified CV with SMOTE confined to training folds. A noise sensitivity analysis shows macro F1 remains above 0.88 under low noise and degrades to 0.74 under very high noise. SHAP analysis confirms that V2X and engineered interaction features rank among the top 15 predictors. Edge inference is estimated to reduce latency from 3.5s to under 1.0s versus cloud-only processing.

Modern deep learning systems are typically deployed as open-loop function approximators: they map inputs to outputs in a single pass, without regulating how much computation or explanatory effort is spent on a given case. In safety-critical settings, this is brittle: easy and ambiguous inputs receive identical processing, and uncertainty is only read off retrospectively from raw probabilities. We introduce the Surgical Cognitive Interpreter (SCI), a lightweight closed-loop metacognitive control layer that wraps an existing stochastic model and turns prediction into an iterative process. SCI monitors a scalar interpretive state SP(t), here instantiated as a normalized entropy-based confidence signal, and adaptively decides whether to stop, continue sampling, or abstain. The goal is not to improve accuracy per se, but to regulate interpretive error ΔSP and expose a safety signal that tracks when the underlying model is likely to fail. We instantiate SCI around Monte Carlo dropout classifiers in three domains: vision (MNIST digits), medical time series (MIT-BIH arrhythmia), and industrial condition monitoring (rolling-element bearings). In all cases, the controller allocates more inference steps to misclassified inputs than to correct ones (up to about 3-4x on MNIST and bearings, and 1.4x on MIT-BIH). The resulting ΔSP acts as a usable safety signal for detecting misclassifications (AUROC 0.63 on MNIST, 0.70 on MIT-BIH, 0.86 on bearings). Code and reproducibility: https://github.com/vishal-1344/sci

DNA-synthesis providers screen incoming orders by searching the requested sequence against curated hazard lists. We show that this baseline collapses to a 100% false-flag rate when the hazardous sequence comes from a taxonomic family absent from the reference set: under Conformal Risk Control's certified miss-rate constraint, a low-discrimination signal forces the threshold below the entire test-benign mass. We compose three signals derived from a synthesis order's public annotation: k-mer Jaccard similarity to known toxins, the trimmed-mean score of a five-LLM judge panel, and cosine similarity to clustered embedding centroids. Fused under a monotone logistic aggregator and calibrated by Conformal Risk Control, the resulting screener certifies E[FNR] le α. Across ten leave-one-taxonomic-family-out folds at α=0.05 on UniProt KW-0800 reviewed toxins, the calibrated screener achieves 0% test miss rate on every fold and 0% test false-flag rate on nine of ten folds. The bound's finite-sample slack 1/(n_{cal}+1) caps the certifiable miss rate at 1.77% on our 200-hazard subsample; reaching procurement-grade α=10^{-3} requires an 18times larger calibration set, which the full reviewed UniProt KW-0800 corpus is large enough to deliver. The binding constraint on certifiable DNA-synthesis screening is calibration data, not algorithms. Code: https://github.com/najmulhasan-code/crc-screen

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

In mobile telecommunications, alarms act as early warning signals. They are triggered when a cell, the basic unit of radio coverage, shuts down or behaves abnormally. This signals a degradation in service quality, which directly affects the customer experience. To fix the issue, operators rely on preset thresholds to decide when an engineer should be sent out. In practice, these thresholds are set manually and remain fixed regardless of the time of day, traffic levels, or overall network conditions. This often leads to serious faults slipping through during busy hours, while minor issues can cause unnecessary callouts when the network is quiet. This paper presents a machine learning framework that automatically predicts four alarm thresholds, audit window duration, inactive time limit, total fluctuation count, and per hour fluctuation limit, from live network behavior. Since no ground truth labels exist for thresholds, we introduce a percentile guided label derivation strategy and evaluate four models on an anonymized dataset of 10,648 cells across three vendors and nine regions from a real 4G network, comprising a Gradient Boosted Trees baseline, a CNN-BiLSTM with attention, the proposed PCTN, and an iTransformer. PCTN performs the best overall with respect to three of the four targets, outperforming a state-of-the-art iTransformer while using 83 percent fewer parameters. Its mixed output heads and dynamic alpha mechanism produce thresholds that are both accurate and interpretable, allowing operators to inspect and adjust the learned policy without retraining. All comparisons are statistically significant at p < 0.001. The framework undergoes daily retraining using new data, which enables the thresholds to constantly adjust to changes in the network.

Large language models (LLMs) continue to struggle with mathematical reasoning, and common post-training pipelines often reduce each generated solution to a binary outcome: correct or incorrect. This perspective is limiting in practice, as failures in chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning are frequently structured; solutions may appear convincing while containing subtle logical, algebraic, or numerical flaws. Meanwhile, reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) variants that rely on large reward models or LLM-as-a-judge signals are often expensive, difficult to scale, and unstable to iterate. We propose a lightweight and pragmatic post-training pipeline that targets such structured errors under realistic compute budgets. Starting from supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on MetaMathQA-style CoT data, we introduce a compact MathVerifier that decomposes a candidate solution into a six-dimensional error profile and aggregates it into interpretable wrongness and absurdity scores. These verifier signals serve two roles: (i) mining hard negatives that are near-correct yet structurally flawed, and (ii) defining per-sample importance weights that emphasize the most informative preference pairs. We integrate both into an offline Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) objective via a verifier-guided weighted formulation. Experiments on a 1.5B-parameter Qwen2.5 model show that verifier-guided, weighted DPO yields more targeted improvements than vanilla SFT and unweighted DPO, particularly on problems where solutions are numerically close to correct but logically inconsistent, while avoiding the overhead of training large reward models or relying on external judges.

We establish a new theoretical framework for learning under multi-class, instance-dependent label noise. This framework casts learning with label noise as a form of domain adaptation, in particular, domain adaptation under posterior drift. We introduce the concept of relative signal strength (RSS), a pointwise measure that quantifies the transferability from noisy to clean posterior. Using RSS, we establish nearly matching upper and lower bounds on the excess risk. Our theoretical findings support the simple Noise Ignorant Empirical Risk Minimization (NI-ERM) principle, which minimizes empirical risk while ignoring label noise. Finally, we translate this theoretical insight into practice: by using NI-ERM to fit a linear classifier on top of a self-supervised feature extractor, we achieve state-of-the-art performance on the CIFAR-N data challenge.

Modern large language models rely on chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning to achieve impressive performance, yet the same mechanism can amplify deceptive alignment, situations in which a model appears aligned while covertly pursuing misaligned goals. Existing safety pipelines treat deception as a black-box output to be filtered post-hoc, leaving the model free to scheme during its internal reasoning. We ask: Can deception be intercepted while the model is thinking? We answer this question, the first framework that embeds a Self-Monitor inside the CoT process itself, named CoT Monitor+. During generation, the model produces (i) ordinary reasoning steps and (ii) an internal self-evaluation signal trained to flag and suppress misaligned strategies. The signal is used as an auxiliary reward in reinforcement learning, creating a feedback loop that rewards honest reasoning and discourages hidden goals. To study deceptive alignment systematically, we introduce DeceptionBench, a five-category benchmark that probes covert alignment-faking, sycophancy, etc. We evaluate various LLMs and show that unrestricted CoT roughly aggravates the deceptive tendency. In contrast, CoT Monitor+ cuts deceptive behaviors by 43.8% on average while preserving task accuracy. Further, when the self-monitor signal replaces an external weak judge in RL fine-tuning, models exhibit substantially fewer obfuscated thoughts and retain transparency. Our project website can be found at cot-monitor-plus.github.io

A dog whistle is a form of coded communication that carries a secondary meaning to specific audiences and is often weaponized for racial and socioeconomic discrimination. Dog whistling historically originated from United States politics, but in recent years has taken root in social media as a means of evading hate speech detection systems and maintaining plausible deniability. In this paper, we present an approach for word-sense disambiguation of dog whistles from standard speech using Large Language Models (LLMs), and leverage this technique to create a dataset of 16,550 high-confidence coded examples of dog whistles used in formal and informal communication. Silent Signals is the largest dataset of disambiguated dog whistle usage, created for applications in hate speech detection, neology, and political science. The dataset can be found at https://huggingface.co/datasets/SALT-NLP/silent_signals.

A reply to Drake (2013) "Early warning signals of stochastic switching" http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.0686

Large language models can detect their own errors and sometimes correct them without external feedback, but the underlying mechanisms remain unknown. We investigate this through the lens of second-order models of confidence from decision neuroscience. In a first-order system, confidence derives from the generation signal itself and is therefore maximal for the chosen response, precluding error detection. Second-order models posit a partially independent evaluative signal that can disagree with the committed response, providing the basis for error detection. Kumaran et al. (2026) showed that LLMs cache a confidence representation at a token immediately following the answer (i.e. post-answer newline: PANL) -- that causally drives verbal confidence and dissociates from log-probabilities. Here we test whether this PANL signal extends beyond confidence to support error detection and self-correction. Here we test whether this signal supports error detection and self-correction, deriving predictions from the second-order framework. Using a verify-then-correct paradigm, we show that: (i) verbal confidence predicts error detection far beyond token log-probabilities, ruling out a first-order account; (ii) PANL activations predict error detection beyond verbal confidence itself; and (iii) PANL predicts which errors the model can correct -- where all behavioural signals fail. Causal interventions confirm that PANL signals rescue error detection behavior when answer information is corrupted. All findings replicate across models (Gemma 3 27B and Qwen 2.5 7B) and tasks (TriviaQA and MNLI). These results reveal that LLMs naturally implement a second-order confidence architecture whose internal evaluative signal encodes not only whether an answer is likely wrong but whether the model has the knowledge to fix it.

The correct use of model evaluation, model selection, and algorithm selection techniques is vital in academic machine learning research as well as in many industrial settings. This article reviews different techniques that can be used for each of these three subtasks and discusses the main advantages and disadvantages of each technique with references to theoretical and empirical studies. Further, recommendations are given to encourage best yet feasible practices in research and applications of machine learning. Common methods such as the holdout method for model evaluation and selection are covered, which are not recommended when working with small datasets. Different flavors of the bootstrap technique are introduced for estimating the uncertainty of performance estimates, as an alternative to confidence intervals via normal approximation if bootstrapping is computationally feasible. Common cross-validation techniques such as leave-one-out cross-validation and k-fold cross-validation are reviewed, the bias-variance trade-off for choosing k is discussed, and practical tips for the optimal choice of k are given based on empirical evidence. Different statistical tests for algorithm comparisons are presented, and strategies for dealing with multiple comparisons such as omnibus tests and multiple-comparison corrections are discussed. Finally, alternative methods for algorithm selection, such as the combined F-test 5x2 cross-validation and nested cross-validation, are recommended for comparing machine learning algorithms when datasets are small.

Standard evaluation of LLM confidence relies on calibration metrics (ECE, Brier score) that conflate two distinct capacities: how much a model knows (Type-1 sensitivity) and how well it knows what it knows (Type-2 metacognitive sensitivity). We introduce an evaluation framework based on Type-2 Signal Detection Theory that decomposes these capacities using meta-d' and the metacognitive efficiency ratio M-ratio. Applied to four LLMs (Llama-3-8B-Instruct, Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.3, Llama-3-8B-Base, Gemma-2-9B-Instruct) across 224,000 factual QA trials, we find: (1) metacognitive efficiency varies substantially across models even when Type-1 sensitivity is similar -- Mistral achieves the highest d' but the lowest M-ratio; (2) metacognitive efficiency is domain-specific, with different models showing different weakest domains, invisible to aggregate metrics; (3) temperature manipulation shifts Type-2 criterion while meta-d' remains stable for two of four models, dissociating confidence policy from metacognitive capacity; (4) AUROC_2 and M-ratio produce fully inverted model rankings, demonstrating these metrics answer fundamentally different evaluation questions. The meta-d' framework reveals which models "know what they don't know" versus which merely appear well-calibrated due to criterion placement -- a distinction with direct implications for model selection, deployment, and human-AI collaboration. Pre-registered analysis; code and data publicly available.

We introduce BeepBank-500, a compact, fully synthetic earcon/alert dataset (300-500 clips) designed for rapid, rights-clean experimentation in human-computer interaction and audio machine learning. Each clip is generated from a parametric recipe controlling waveform family (sine, square, triangle, FM), fundamental frequency, duration, amplitude envelope, amplitude modulation (AM), and lightweight Schroeder-style reverberation. We use three reverberation settings: dry, and two synthetic rooms denoted 'rir small' ('small') and 'rir medium' ('medium') throughout the paper and in the metadata. We release mono 48 kHz WAV audio (16-bit), a rich metadata table (signal/spectral features), and tiny reproducible baselines for (i) waveform-family classification and (ii) f0 regression on single tones. The corpus targets tasks such as earcon classification, timbre analyses, and onset detection, with clearly stated licensing and limitations. Audio is dedicated to the public domain via CC0-1.0; code is under MIT. Data DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17172015. Code: https://github.com/mandip42/earcons-mini-500.

In the midst of widespread misinformation and disinformation through social media and the proliferation of AI-generated texts, it has become increasingly difficult for people to validate and trust information they encounter. Many fact-checking approaches and tools have been developed, but they often lack appropriate explainability or granularity to be useful in various contexts. A text validation method that is easy to use, accessible, and can perform fine-grained evidence attribution has become crucial. More importantly, building user trust in such a method requires presenting the rationale behind each prediction, as research shows this significantly influences people's belief in automated systems. It is also paramount to localize and bring users' attention to the specific problematic content, instead of providing simple blanket labels. In this paper, we present ClaimVer, a human-centric framework tailored to meet users' informational and verification needs by generating rich annotations and thereby reducing cognitive load. Designed to deliver comprehensive evaluations of texts, it highlights each claim, verifies it against a trusted knowledge graph (KG), presents the evidence, and provides succinct, clear explanations for each claim prediction. Finally, our framework introduces an attribution score, enhancing applicability across a wide range of downstream tasks.

Single-source domain generalization attempts to learn a model on a source domain and deploy it to unseen target domains. Limiting access only to source domain data imposes two key challenges - how to train a model that can generalize and how to verify that it does. The standard practice of validation on the training distribution does not accurately reflect the model's generalization ability, while validation on the test distribution is a malpractice to avoid. In this work, we construct an independent validation set by transforming source domain images with a comprehensive list of augmentations, covering a broad spectrum of potential distribution shifts in target domains. We demonstrate a high correlation between validation and test performance for multiple methods and across various datasets. The proposed validation achieves a relative accuracy improvement over the standard validation equal to 15.4% or 1.6% when used for method selection or learning rate tuning, respectively. Furthermore, we introduce a novel family of methods that increase the shape bias through enhanced edge maps. To benefit from the augmentations during training and preserve the independence of the validation set, a k-fold validation process is designed to separate the augmentation types used in training and validation. The method that achieves the best performance on the augmented validation is selected from the proposed family. It achieves state-of-the-art performance on various standard benchmarks. Code at: https://github.com/NikosEfth/crafting-shifts

The evolution of machine learning has increasingly prioritized the development of powerful models and more scalable supervision signals. However, the emergence of foundation models presents significant challenges in providing effective supervision signals necessary for further enhancing their capabilities. Consequently, there is an urgent need to explore novel supervision signals and technical approaches. In this paper, we propose verifier engineering, a novel post-training paradigm specifically designed for the era of foundation models. The core of verifier engineering involves leveraging a suite of automated verifiers to perform verification tasks and deliver meaningful feedback to foundation models. We systematically categorize the verifier engineering process into three essential stages: search, verify, and feedback, and provide a comprehensive review of state-of-the-art research developments within each stage. We believe that verifier engineering constitutes a fundamental pathway toward achieving Artificial General Intelligence.

Identifying subtle technical errors within complex scientific and technical documents, especially those requiring multimodal interpretation (e.g., formulas in images), presents a significant hurdle for Large Language Models (LLMs) whose inherent error-correction tendencies can mask inaccuracies. This exploratory proof-of-concept (PoC) study investigates structured LLM context conditioning, informed by Persistent Workflow Prompting (PWP) principles, as a methodological strategy to modulate this LLM behavior at inference time. The approach is designed to enhance the reliability of readily available, general-purpose LLMs (specifically Gemini 2.5 Pro and ChatGPT Plus o3) for precise validation tasks, crucially relying only on their standard chat interfaces without API access or model modifications. To explore this methodology, we focused on validating chemical formulas within a single, complex test paper with known textual and image-based errors. Several prompting strategies were evaluated: while basic prompts proved unreliable, an approach adapting PWP structures to rigorously condition the LLM's analytical mindset appeared to improve textual error identification with both models. Notably, this method also guided Gemini 2.5 Pro to repeatedly identify a subtle image-based formula error previously overlooked during manual review, a task where ChatGPT Plus o3 failed in our tests. These preliminary findings highlight specific LLM operational modes that impede detail-oriented validation and suggest that PWP-informed context conditioning offers a promising and highly accessible technique for developing more robust LLM-driven analytical workflows, particularly for tasks requiring meticulous error detection in scientific and technical documents. Extensive validation beyond this limited PoC is necessary to ascertain broader applicability.

Where do learning signals come from when there is no ground truth in post-training? We propose turning exploration into supervision through Compute as Teacher (CaT), which converts the model's own exploration at inference-time into reference-free supervision by synthesizing a single reference from a group of parallel rollouts and then optimizing toward it. Concretely, the current policy produces a group of rollouts; a frozen anchor (the initial policy) reconciles omissions and contradictions to estimate a reference, turning extra inference-time compute into a teacher signal. We turn this into rewards in two regimes: (i) verifiable tasks use programmatic equivalence on final answers; (ii) non-verifiable tasks use self-proposed rubrics-binary, auditable criteria scored by an independent LLM judge, with reward given by the fraction satisfied. Unlike selection methods (best-of-N, majority, perplexity, or judge scores), synthesis may disagree with the majority and be correct even when all rollouts are wrong; performance scales with the number of rollouts. As a test-time procedure, CaT improves Gemma 3 4B, Qwen 3 4B, and Llama 3.1 8B (up to +27% on MATH-500; +12% on HealthBench). With reinforcement learning (CaT-RL), we obtain further gains (up to +33% and +30%), with the trained policy surpassing the initial teacher signal.

Post-training for reasoning of large language models (LLMs) increasingly relies on verifiable rewards: deterministic checkers that provide 0-1 correctness signals. While reliable, such binary feedback is brittle--many tasks admit partially correct or alternative answers that verifiers under-credit, and the resulting all-or-nothing supervision limits learning. Reward models offer richer, continuous feedback, which can serve as a complementary supervisory signal to verifiers. We introduce HERO (Hybrid Ensemble Reward Optimization), a reinforcement learning framework that integrates verifier signals with reward-model scores in a structured way. HERO employs stratified normalization to bound reward-model scores within verifier-defined groups, preserving correctness while refining quality distinctions, and variance-aware weighting to emphasize challenging prompts where dense signals matter most. Across diverse mathematical reasoning benchmarks, HERO consistently outperforms RM-only and verifier-only baselines, with strong gains on both verifiable and hard-to-verify tasks. Our results show that hybrid reward design retains the stability of verifiers while leveraging the nuance of reward models to advance reasoning.

Best-of-N inference scaling (drawing N candidate answers from a language model and returning the one a reward model ranks highest) improves accuracy by an amount that varies across models, but predicting that amount in advance currently requires running the procedure end-to-end. Prior work links cheap statistics of a model's sampled outputs and validation-set correctness (how often samples agree, how diverse they are, how confident the model is, and where correct samples appear) to model behavior, but does not isolate which of these form a stable, compact predictor of best-of-N gain. We fit ridge predictors on features computed from a single labeled validation-set sampling pass, use bootstrap-Lasso as a stability analysis of the candidate feature set, and give a concentration analysis with an explicit linear-approximation residual. Across three base-model families, six post-training methods, and math and reasoning task domains, the stability analysis identifies a strict three-feature core spanning prompt-level agreement spread, label-assisted first-correct-sample position, and completion-length variance; a compact ridge predictor built from this core plus an entropy add-on reaches Spearman ρ= 0.90 with actual best-of-N gain under a reward-model verifier. The intended use is labeled validation-set screening of candidate configurations before paying the full reward-model scoring cost.

Retrieval-enhanced methods have become a primary approach in fact verification (FV); it requires reasoning over multiple retrieved pieces of evidence to verify the integrity of a claim. To retrieve evidence, existing work often employs off-the-shelf retrieval models whose design is based on the probability ranking principle. We argue that, rather than relevance, for FV we need to focus on the utility that a claim verifier derives from the retrieved evidence. We introduce the feedback-based evidence retriever(FER) that optimizes the evidence retrieval process by incorporating feedback from the claim verifier. As a feedback signal we use the divergence in utility between how effectively the verifier utilizes the retrieved evidence and the ground-truth evidence to produce the final claim label. Empirical studies demonstrate the superiority of FER over prevailing baselines.

In order to minimize the generalization error in neural networks, a novel technique to identify overfitting phenomena when training the learner is formally introduced. This enables support of a reliable and trustworthy early stopping condition, thus improving the predictive power of that type of modeling. Our proposal exploits the correlation over time in a collection of online indicators, namely characteristic functions for indicating if a set of hypotheses are met, associated with a range of independent stopping conditions built from a canary judgment to evaluate the presence of overfitting. That way, we provide a formal basis for decision making in terms of interrupting the learning process. As opposed to previous approaches focused on a single criterion, we take advantage of subsidiarities between independent assessments, thus seeking both a wider operating range and greater diagnostic reliability. With a view to illustrating the effectiveness of the halting condition described, we choose to work in the sphere of natural language processing, an operational continuum increasingly based on machine learning. As a case study, we focus on parser generation, one of the most demanding and complex tasks in the domain. The selection of cross-validation as a canary function enables an actual comparison with the most representative early stopping conditions based on overfitting identification, pointing to a promising start toward an optimal bias and variance control.

While LLM-as-a-Judge is widely used in automated evaluation, existing validation practices primarily operate at the level of observed outputs, offering limited insight into whether LLM judges themselves function as stable and reliable measurement instruments. To address this limitation, we introduce a two-phase diagnostic framework for assessing reliability of LLM-as-a-Judge, grounded in Item Response Theory (IRT). The framework adopts Graded Response Model (GRM) of IRT and formalizes reliability along two complementary dimensions: (1) intrinsic consistency, defined as the stability of measurement behavior under prompt variations, and (2) human alignment, capturing correspondence with human quality assessments. We empirically examine diverse LLM judges with this framework, and show that leveraging IRT-GRM yields interpretable signals for diagnosing judgments systematically. These signals provide practical guidance for verifying reliablity of LLM-as-a-Judge and identifying potential causes of unreliability.

Speech quality assessment (SQA) aims to predict the perceived quality of speech signals under a wide range of distortions. It is inherently connected to speech enhancement (SE), which seeks to improve speech quality by removing unwanted signal components. While SQA models are widely used to evaluate SE performance, their potential to guide SE training remains underexplored. In this work, we investigate a training framework that leverages a SQA model, trained to predict multiple evaluation metrics from a public SE leaderboard, as a supervisory signal for SE. This approach addresses a key limitation of conventional SE objectives, such as SI-SNR, which often fail to align with perceptual quality and generalize poorly across evaluation metrics. Moreover, it enables training on real-world data where clean references are unavailable. Experiments on both simulated and real-world test sets show that SQA-guided training consistently improves performance across a range of quality metrics. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/urgent-challenge/urgent2026_challenge_track2

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

Reasoning failures in large language models (LLMs) are typically measured only at the end of a generation, yet many failures manifest as a process-level breakdown: the model "loses the thread" mid-reasoning. We study whether such breakdowns are detectable from inference-time observables available in standard APIs (token log probabilities), without any training or fine-tuning. We define a simple instability signal that combines consecutive-step distributional shift (JSD) and uncertainty (entropy), summarize each trace by its peak instability strength, and show that this signal reliably predicts failure. Across GSM8K and HotpotQA, instability strength predicts wrong answers with above-chance AUC and yields monotonic bucket-level accuracy decline at scale across model sizes. Crucially, we show that instability is not uniformly harmful: early instability can reflect subsequent stabilization and a correct final answer (corrective instability), whereas late instability is more often followed by failure (destructive instability), even at comparable peak magnitudes, indicating that recoverability depends not only on how strongly the distribution changes but also on when such changes occur relative to the remaining decoding horizon. The method is model-agnostic, training-free, and reproducible, and is presented as a diagnostic lens rather than a corrective or control mechanism.

Photoplethysmogram (PPG) and electrocardiogram (ECG) are commonly recorded in intesive care unit (ICU) and operating room (OR). However, the high incidence of poor, incomplete, and inconsistent signal quality, can lead to false alarms or diagnostic inaccuracies. The methods explored so far suffer from limited generalizability, reliance on extensive labeled data, and poor cross-task transferability. To overcome these challenges, we introduce QualityFM, a novel multimodal foundation model for these physiological signals, designed to acquire a general-purpose understanding of signal quality. Our model is pre-trained on an large-scale dataset comprising over 21 million 30-second waveforms and 179,757 hours of data. Our approach involves a dual-track architecture that processes paired physiological signals of differing quality, leveraging a self-distillation strategy where an encoder for high-quality signals is used to guide the training of an encoder for low-quality signals. To efficiently handle long sequential signals and capture essential local quasi-periodic patterns, we integrate a windowed sparse attention mechanism within our Transformer-based model. Furthermore, a composite loss function, which combines direct distillation loss on encoder outputs with indirect reconstruction loss based on power and phase spectra, ensures the preservation of frequency-domain characteristics of the signals. We pre-train three models with varying parameter counts (9.6 M to 319 M) and demonstrate their efficacy and practical value through transfer learning on three distinct clinical tasks: false alarm of ventricular tachycardia detection, the identification of atrial fibrillation and the estimation of arterial blood pressure (ABP) from PPG and ECG signals.

Developing large language models is expensive and involves making decisions with small experiments, typically by evaluating on large, multi-task evaluation suites. In this work, we analyze specific properties which make a benchmark more reliable for such decisions, and interventions to design higher-quality evaluation benchmarks. We introduce two key metrics that show differences in current benchmarks: signal, a benchmark's ability to separate better models from worse models, and noise, a benchmark's sensitivity to random variability between training steps. We demonstrate that benchmarks with a better signal-to-noise ratio are more reliable when making decisions at small scale, and those with less noise have lower scaling law prediction error. These results suggest that improving signal or noise will lead to more useful benchmarks, so we introduce three interventions designed to directly affect signal or noise. For example, we propose that switching to a metric that has better signal and noise (e.g., perplexity rather than accuracy) leads to better reliability and improved scaling law error. We also find that filtering noisy subtasks, to improve an aggregate signal-to-noise ratio, leads to more reliable multi-task evaluations. We also find that averaging the output of a model's intermediate checkpoints to reduce noise leads to consistent improvements. We conclude by recommending that those creating new benchmarks, or selecting which existing benchmarks to use, aim for high signal and low noise. We use 30 benchmarks for these experiments, and 375 open-weight language models from 60M to 32B parameters, resulting in a new, publicly available dataset of 900K evaluation benchmark results, totaling 200M instances.

This position paper argues that the machine learning community should prioritize early-stage quality assurance in annotation pipelines over the prevailing practice of late-stage validation. Data quality bottlenecks increasingly limit foundation model improvement, yet quality assurance research focuses almost exclusively on validation methods rather than validation timing. When validation occurs, not merely what methods are employed, fundamentally determines both error rates and annotation costs. This temporal neglect is puzzling given the well-established "shift-left" principle from software engineering, where empirical studies demonstrate 4--100x cost multipliers for defects detected in later stages (Boehm, 1981; Shull et al., 2002). Annotation pipelines exhibit analogous dynamics: errors caught before annotation begins cost a fraction of those discovered after review cycles complete. We propose a taxonomy of three QA trigger points, namely pre-annotation (T0), post-annotation (T1), and post-review (T2), that decompose annotation workflows into discrete validation opportunities. A parametric error-propagation model formalizes when timing affects final error rates versus only economics, making timing a measurable design variable rather than a configuration afterthought. A survey of 47 recent papers reveals that only 4% report when validation occurs, a striking gap given timing's demonstrated impact in adjacent fields. Without explicit attention to QA timing, the community risks optimizing validation methods while ignoring the structural variable that may matter most. Acting on this position requires three steps: researchers should report QA timing configurations alongside validation methods; annotation platforms should expose timing as a first-class parameter; and the community should run controlled experiments that measure stage-specific detection rates directly.

Answer verification is crucial not only for evaluating large language models (LLMs) by matching their unstructured outputs against standard answers, but also serves as the reward model to guide LLM optimization. Most evaluation frameworks rely on regularized matching or employ general LLMs for answer verification, which demands extensive, repetitive customization for regex rules or evaluation prompts. Two fundamental limitations persist in current methodologies: 1) the absence of comprehensive benchmarks that systematically evaluate verification capabilities across different LLMs; and 2) the nascent stage of verifier development, where existing approaches lack both the robustness to handle complex edge cases and the generalizability across different domains. In this work, we develop CompassVerifier, an accurate and robust lightweight verifier model for evaluation and outcome reward. It demonstrates multi-domain competency spanning math, knowledge, and diverse reasoning tasks, with the capability to process various answer types, including multi-subproblems, formulas, and sequence answers, while effectively identifying abnormal/invalid responses. We introduce VerifierBench benchmark comprising model outputs collected from multiple data sources, augmented through manual analysis of metaerror patterns to enhance CompassVerifier. We anticipate that CompassVerifier and VerifierBench will facilitate answer verification, evaluation protocols, and reinforcement learning research. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/open-compass/CompassVerifier.

Ambient AI "scribe" systems promise to reduce clinical documentation burden, but automatic speech recognition (ASR) errors can remain unnoticed without careful review, and high-quality human reference transcripts are often unavailable for calibrating uncertainty. We investigate whether cross-model disagreement among heterogeneous ASR systems can act as a reference-free uncertainty signal to prioritize human verification in medical transcription workflows. Using 50 publicly available medical education audio clips (8 h 14 min), we transcribed each clip with eight ASR systems spanning commercial APIs and open-source engines. We aligned multi-model outputs, built consensus pseudo-references, and quantified token-level agreement using a majority-strength metric; we further characterized disagreements by type (content vs. punctuation/formatting) and assessed per-model agreement via leave-one-model-out (jackknife) consensus scoring. Inter-model reliability was low (ICC[2,1] = 0.131), indicating heterogeneous failure modes across systems. Across 76,398 evaluated token positions, 72.1% showed near-unanimous agreement (7-8 models), while 2.5% fell into high-risk bands (0-3 models), with high-risk mass varying from 0.7% to 11.4% across accent groups. Low-agreement regions were enriched for content disagreements, with the content fraction increasing from 53.9% to 73.9% across quintiles of high-risk mass. These results suggest that cross-model disagreement provides a sparse, localizable signal that can surface potentially unreliable transcript spans without human-verified references, enabling targeted review; clinical accuracy of flagged regions remains to be established.

The advent of large language models (LLMs) has greatly facilitated code generation, but ensuring the functional correctness of generated code remains a challenge. Traditional validation methods are often time-consuming, error-prone, and impractical for large volumes of code. We introduce CodeSift, a novel framework that leverages LLMs as the first-line filter of code validation without the need for execution, reference code, or human feedback, thereby reducing the validation effort. We assess the effectiveness of our method across three diverse datasets encompassing two programming languages. Our results indicate that CodeSift outperforms state-of-the-art code evaluation methods. Internal testing conducted with subject matter experts reveals that the output generated by CodeSift is in line with human preference, reinforcing its effectiveness as a dependable automated code validation tool.

The reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have been a longstanding focus of research. Recent works have further enhanced these capabilities using reinforcement learning (RL), with many new methods claiming significant improvements with minimal or no external supervision. Surprisingly, some studies even suggest that random or incorrect reward signals can enhance reasoning performance. However, these breakthroughs are mostly reported on the Qwen2.5 model family and evaluated on well-known benchmarks such as MATH-500, AMC, and AIME, while failing to achieve similar gains on other models like Llama, which warrants further investigation. Our analysis shows that although Qwen2.5 achieves strong mathematical reasoning performance, its pretraining on large-scale web corpora makes it vulnerable to data contamination in popular benchmarks. As a result, results derived from these benchmarks may be unreliable. To address this, we introduce a generator that produces fully synthetic arithmetic problems of arbitrary length and difficulty, yielding a clean dataset we call RandomCalculation. Using these leakage-free datasets, we show that only accurate reward signals consistently improve performance, while noisy or incorrect signals do not. We advocate for evaluating RL methods on uncontaminated benchmarks and across diverse model families to ensure trustworthy conclusions.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities out of box for a wide range of applications, yet accuracy still remains a major growth area, especially in mission-critical domains such as biomedicine. An effective method to calibrate the confidence level on LLM responses is essential to automatically detect errors and facilitate human-in-the-loop verification. An important source of calibration signals stems from expert-stipulated programmatic supervision, which is often available at low cost but has its own limitations such as noise and coverage. In this paper, we introduce a Pareto optimal self-supervision framework that can leverage available programmatic supervision to systematically calibrate LLM responses by producing a risk score for every response, without any additional manual efforts. This is accomplished by learning a harmonizer model to align LLM output with other available supervision sources, which would assign higher risk scores to more uncertain LLM responses and facilitate error correction. Experiments on standard relation extraction tasks in biomedical and general domains demonstrate the promise of this approach, with our proposed risk scores highly correlated with the real error rate of LLMs. For the most uncertain test instances, dynamic prompting based on our proposed risk scores results in significant accuracy improvement for off-the-shelf LLMs, boosting GPT-3 results past state-of-the-art (SOTA) weak supervision and GPT-4 results past SOTA supervised results on challenging evaluation datasets.

Twelve-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) are the clinical gold standard for cardiac diagnosis, providing comprehensive spatial coverage of the heart necessary to detect conditions such as myocardial infarction (MI). However, their lack of portability limits continuous and large-scale use. Three-lead ECG systems are widely used in wearable devices due to their simplicity and mobility, but they often fail to capture pathologies in unmeasured regions. To address this, we propose WearECG, a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) method that reconstructs twelve-lead ECGs from three leads: II, V1, and V5. Our model includes architectural improvements to better capture temporal and spatial dependencies in ECG signals. We evaluate generation quality using MSE, MAE, and Frechet Inception Distance (FID), and assess clinical validity via a Turing test with expert cardiologists. To further validate diagnostic utility, we fine-tune ECGFounder, a large-scale pretrained ECG model, on a multi-label classification task involving over 40 cardiac conditions, including six different myocardial infarction locations, using both real and generated signals. Experiments on the MIMIC dataset show that our method produces physiologically realistic and diagnostically informative signals, with robust performance in downstream tasks. This work demonstrates the potential of generative modeling for ECG reconstruction and its implications for scalable, low-cost cardiac screening.

We show that reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) can elicit strong mathematical reasoning in certain models even with spurious rewards that have little, no, or even negative correlation with the correct answer. For example, RLVR improves MATH-500 performance for Qwen2.5-Math-7B in absolute points by 21.4% (random reward), 13.8% (format reward), 24.1% (incorrect label), 26.0% (1-shot RL), and 27.1% (majority voting) -- nearly matching the 29.1% gained with ground truth rewards. However, the spurious rewards that work for Qwen often fail to yield gains with other model families like Llama3 or OLMo2. In particular, we find code reasoning -- thinking in code without actual code execution -- to be a distinctive Qwen2.5-Math behavior that becomes significantly more frequent after RLVR, from 65% to over 90%, even with spurious rewards. Overall, we hypothesize that, given the lack of useful reward signal, RLVR must somehow be surfacing useful reasoning representations learned during pretraining, although the exact mechanism remains a topic for future work. We suggest that future RLVR research should possibly be validated on diverse models rather than a single de facto choice, as we show that it is easy to get significant performance gains on Qwen models even with completely spurious reward signals.

Reinforcement learning is increasingly used for code-centric tasks. These tasks include code generation, summarization, understanding, repair, testing, and optimization. This trend is growing faster with large language models and autonomous agents. A key challenge is how to design reward signals that make sense for software. In many RL problems, the reward is a clear number. In software, this is often not possible. The goal is rarely a single numeric objective. Instead, rewards are usually proxies. Common proxies check if the code compiles, passes tests, or satisfies quality metrics. Many reward designs have been proposed for code-related tasks. However, the work is scattered across areas and papers. There is no single survey that brings these approaches together and shows the full landscape of reward design for RL in software. In this survey, we provide the first systematic and comprehensive review of reward engineering for RL in software tasks. We focus on existing methods and techniques. We structure the literature along three complementary dimensions, summarizing the reward-design choices within each. We conclude with challenges and recommendations in the reward design space for SE tasks.

Training data influence estimation methods quantify the contribution of training documents to a model's output, making them a promising source of information for example-based explanations. As humans cannot interpret thousands of documents, only a small subset of the training data can be presented as an explanation. Although the choice of which documents to include directly affects explanation quality, previous evaluations of such systems have largely ignored any selection strategies. To address this, we propose a novel selection relevance score, a retraining-free metric that quantifies how useful a set of examples is for explaining a model's output. We validate this score through fine-tuning experiments, confirming that it can predict whether a set of examples supports or undermines the model's predictions. Using this metric, we further show that common selection strategies often underperform random selection. Motivated by this finding, we propose a strategy that balances influence and representativeness, enabling better use of selection budgets than naively selecting the highest-ranking examples.

Recent advances in Hierarchical Multi-label Classification (HMC), particularly neurosymbolic-based approaches, have demonstrated improved consistency and accuracy by enforcing constraints on a neural model during training. However, such work assumes the existence of such constraints a-priori. In this paper, we relax this strong assumption and present an approach based on Error Detection Rules (EDR) that allow for learning explainable rules about the failure modes of machine learning models. We show that these rules are not only effective in detecting when a machine learning classifier has made an error but also can be leveraged as constraints for HMC, thereby allowing the recovery of explainable constraints even if they are not provided. We show that our approach is effective in detecting machine learning errors and recovering constraints, is noise tolerant, and can function as a source of knowledge for neurosymbolic models on multiple datasets, including a newly introduced military vehicle recognition dataset.

When an AI agent calls an API and hits a validation error, it needs more than what went wrong -- it needs what to do next. A self-reflective API returns, on validation failure, a machine-readable recovery\_feedback.suggestions[] payload sufficient for the agent to repair the request and retry without external reasoning. On a leak-audited pilot (N{=}30 per cell, 3 LLMs, 10 adversarial tasks), structured suggestions lift task-completion rate by +36.7--40.0pp over plain-English diagnoses on Anthropic models (Fisher's exact p le 0.0022), at 1.8--2.2times better per-success token efficiency. The lift is not significant on gpt-4o-mini (p{=}0.435); a second-domain replication on a billing API confirms the pattern. The comparison only holds after auditing two undocumented classes of answer leakage in LLM benchmarks. We shipaudit\_prompt\_leakage.py as reusable CI infrastructure. Code and data: https://github.com/arquicanedo/self-reflective-apis.

Cross-validation is the de facto standard for predictive model evaluation and selection. In proper use, it provides an unbiased estimate of a model's predictive performance. However, data sets often undergo various forms of data-dependent preprocessing, such as mean-centering, rescaling, dimensionality reduction, and outlier removal. It is often believed that such preprocessing stages, if done in an unsupervised manner (that does not incorporate the class labels or response values) are generally safe to do prior to cross-validation. In this paper, we study three commonly-practiced preprocessing procedures prior to a regression analysis: (i) variance-based feature selection; (ii) grouping of rare categorical features; and (iii) feature rescaling. We demonstrate that unsupervised preprocessing can, in fact, introduce a substantial bias into cross-validation estimates and potentially hurt model selection. This bias may be either positive or negative and its exact magnitude depends on all the parameters of the problem in an intricate manner. Further research is needed to understand the real-world impact of this bias across different application domains, particularly when dealing with small sample sizes and high-dimensional data.

We describe an iterative active-learning algorithm to recognise rare traffic signs. A standard ResNet is trained on a training set containing only a single sample of the rare class. We demonstrate that by sorting the samples of a large, unlabeled set by the estimated probability of belonging to the rare class, we can efficiently identify samples from the rare class. This works despite the fact that this estimated probability is usually quite low. A reliable active-learning loop is obtained by labeling these candidate samples, including them in the training set, and iterating the procedure. Further, we show that we get similar results starting from a single synthetic sample. Our results are important as they indicate a straightforward way of improving traffic-sign recognition for automated driving systems. In addition, they show that we can make use of the information hidden in low confidence outputs, which is usually ignored.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) achieve strong performance by generating long reasoning traces with reflection. Through a large-scale empirical analysis, we find that a substantial fraction of reflective steps consist of self-verification (recheck) that repeatedly confirm intermediate results. These rechecks occur frequently across models and benchmarks, yet the vast majority are confirmatory rather than corrective, rarely identifying errors and altering reasoning outcomes. This reveals a mismatch between how often self-verification is activated and how often it is actually useful. Motivated by this, we propose a novel, experience-driven test-time framework that reduces the overused verification. Our method detects the activation of recheck behavior, consults an offline experience pool of past verification outcomes, and estimates whether a recheck is likely unnecessary via efficient retrieval. When historical experience suggests unnecessary, a suppression signal redirects the model to proceed. Across multiple model and benchmarks, our approach reduces token usage up to 20.3% while maintaining the accuracy, and in some datasets even yields accuracy improvements.

This work defines a new framework for performance evaluation of polyphonic sound event detection (SED) systems, which overcomes the limitations of the conventional collar-based event decisions, event F-scores and event error rates. The proposed framework introduces a definition of event detection that is more robust against labelling subjectivity. It also resorts to polyphonic receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to deliver more global insight into system performance than F1-scores, and proposes a reduction of these curves into a single polyphonic sound detection score (PSDS), which allows system comparison independently from operating points (OPs). The presented method also delivers better insight into data biases and classification stability across sound classes. Furthermore, it can be tuned to varying applications in order to match a variety of user experience requirements. The benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated by re-evaluating the baseline and two of the top-performing systems from DCASE 2019 Task 4.

Single-prompt accuracy is the dominant way to benchmark language models, but it can miss reliability failures that matter. We evaluate a 15-model open-weight corpus, with the main reliability analyses focused on 10 instruct models across five classification and reasoning benchmarks under five prompt variants each, measuring accuracy, token-probability calibration, verbal-confidence calibration, verbal parse rate, and prompt-perturbation spread for every (model x dataset x variant) cell. We find three broad results. First, evaluation design can materially change the conclusion. Switching Expected Calibration Error (ECE) token from a raw to a label-set-normalised definition changes per-cell calibration by a mean absolute 0.149. More strikingly, pairing a chain-of-thought prompt with a first-character evaluator on ARC-Challenge reduces apparent accuracy by 72-88% across all five primary models; two independent repair procedures recover 93.8% and 102.7% of the lost performance, indicating an evaluator-side rather than model-side failure. Second, confidence signals are fragile. On MMLU-Pro, every primary model verbally reports confidence substantially above both its accuracy and its token-probability confidence on the same rows, and verbal parse rate can collapse for a single model on a single prompt variant. Third, prompt robustness does not track parameter count reliably. Across 10 instruct models, the correlation between model size and prompt-perturbation spread ranges from -0.244 to 0.474 across benchmarks. Taken together, these results show that reliability conclusions for small language models depend not only on the model being evaluated, but also on the evaluation pipeline used to measure it. We argue that calibration definitions, evaluator logic, verbal parseability, and prompt robustness should be reported explicitly when making reliability claims.

Electrocardiography (ECG) signals are often degraded by noise, which complicates diagnosis in clinical and wearable settings. This study proposes a diffusion-based framework for ECG noise quantification via reconstruction-based anomaly detection, addressing annotation inconsistencies and the limited generalizability of conventional methods. We introduce a distributional evaluation using the Wasserstein-1 distance (W_1), comparing the reconstruction error distributions between clean and noisy ECGs to mitigate inconsistent annotations. Our final model achieved robust noise quantification using only three reverse diffusion steps. The model recorded a macro-average W_1 score of 1.308 across the benchmarks, outperforming the next-best method by over 48%. External validations demonstrated strong generalizability, supporting the exclusion of low-quality segments to enhance diagnostic accuracy and enable timely clinical responses to signal degradation. The proposed method enhances clinical decision-making, diagnostic accuracy, and real-time ECG monitoring capabilities, supporting future advancements in clinical and wearable ECG applications.

Process Reward Models (PRMs) provide step-level feedback for reasoning, but current PRMs usually output only a single reward score for each step. Downstream methods must therefore treat imperfect step-level reward predictions as reliable decision signals, with no indication of when these predictions should be trusted. We propose BetaPRM, a distributional PRM that predicts both a step-level success probability and the reliability of that prediction. Given step-success supervision from Monte Carlo continuations, BetaPRM learns a Beta belief that explains the observed number of successful continuations through a Beta-Binomial likelihood, rather than regressing to the finite-sample success ratio as a point target. This learned reliability signal indicates when a step reward should be trusted, enabling downstream applications to distinguish reliable rewards from uncertain ones. As one application, we introduce Adaptive Computation Allocation (ACA) for PRM-guided Best-of-N reasoning. ACA uses the learned reliability signal to stop when a high-reward solution is reliable and to spend additional computation on uncertain candidate prefixes. Experiments across four backbones and four reasoning benchmarks show that BetaPRM improves PRM-guided Best-of-N selection while preserving standard step-level error detection. Built on this signal, ACA improves the accuracy--token tradeoff over fixed-budget Best-of-16, reducing token usage by up to 33.57% while improving final-answer accuracy.

Large language models (LLMs) show remarkable promise for democratizing automated reasoning by generating formal specifications. However, a fundamental tension exists: LLMs are probabilistic, while formal verification demands deterministic guarantees. This paper addresses this epistemological gap by comprehensively investigating failure modes and uncertainty quantification (UQ) in LLM-generated formal artifacts. Our systematic evaluation of five frontier LLMs reveals Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT) based autoformalization's domain-specific impact on accuracy (from +34.8% on logical tasks to -44.5% on factual ones), with known UQ techniques like the entropy of token probabilities failing to identify these errors. We introduce a probabilistic context-free grammar (PCFG) framework to model LLM outputs, yielding a refined uncertainty taxonomy. We find uncertainty signals are task-dependent (e.g., grammar entropy for logic, AUROC>0.93). Finally, a lightweight fusion of these signals enables selective verification, drastically reducing errors (14-100%) with minimal abstention, transforming LLM-driven formalization into a reliable engineering discipline.

Deep neural networks are highly performant, but might base their decision on spurious or background features that co-occur with certain classes, which can hurt generalization. To mitigate this issue, the usage of 'model guidance' has gained popularity recently: for this, models are guided to be "right for the right reasons" by regularizing the models' explanations to highlight the right features. Experimental validation of these approaches has thus far however been limited to relatively simple and / or synthetic datasets. To gain a better understanding of which model-guiding approaches actually transfer to more challenging real-world datasets, in this work we conduct an in-depth evaluation across various loss functions, attribution methods, models, and 'guidance depths' on the PASCAL VOC 2007 and MS COCO 2014 datasets, and show that model guidance can sometimes even improve model performance. In this context, we further propose a novel energy loss, show its effectiveness in directing the model to focus on object features. We also show that these gains can be achieved even with a small fraction (e.g. 1%) of bounding box annotations, highlighting the cost effectiveness of this approach. Lastly, we show that this approach can also improve generalization under distribution shifts. Code will be made available.

Large language model (LLM) agents now execute long, tool-using tasks where final outcome checks can arrive too late for intervention. Online warning requires lightweight prefix monitors over heterogeneous traces, but hand-authored event schemas are brittle and deployment-time LLM judging is costly. We introduce PrefixGuard, a trace-to-monitor framework with an offline StepView induction step followed by supervised monitor training. StepView induces deterministic typed-step adapters from raw trace samples, and the monitor learns an event abstraction and prefix-risk scorer from terminal outcomes. Across WebArena, τ^2-Bench, SkillsBench, and TerminalBench, the strongest PrefixGuard monitors reach 0.900/0.710/0.533/0.557 AUPRC. Using the strongest backend within each representation, they improve over raw-text controls by an average of +0.137 AUPRC. LLM judges remain substantially weaker under the same prefix-warning protocol. We also derive an observability ceiling on score-based area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) that separates monitor error from failures lacking evidence in the observed prefix. For finite-state audit, post-hoc deterministic finite automaton (DFA) extraction remains compact on WebArena and τ^2-Bench (29 and 20 states) but expands to 151 and 187 states on SkillsBench and TerminalBench. Finally, first-alert diagnostics show that strong ranking does not imply deployment utility: WebArena ranks well yet fails to support low-false-alarm alerts, whereas τ^2-Bench and TerminalBench retain more actionable early alerts. Together, these results position PrefixGuard as a practical monitor-synthesis recipe with explicit diagnostics for when prefix warnings translate into actionable interventions.

Knowledge graphs (KGs) are increasingly used to support large lan guage model (LLM) reasoning, but standard triplet-based KGs treat each relation as globally valid. In many settings, whether a relation should count as evidence depends on the context. We therefore formulate triplet validity as a triplet-specific function of context and refer to this formulation as a Quantum Knowledge Graph (QKG). We instantiate QKG in medicine using a diabetes-centered PrimeKG subgraph, whose 68,651 context-sensitive relations are further annotated with patient-group-specific constraints. We evaluate it in a reasoner--validator pipeline for medical question answering on a KG-grounded subset of MedReason containing 2,788 questions. With Haiku-4.5 as both the Reasoner and the Validator, KG-backed validation significantly improves over a no-validator baseline (+0.61 pp), and QKG with context matching yields the largest gain, outperforming both KG validation without context matching (+0.79 pp) and the no-validator baseline (+1.40 pp; paired McNemar, all p<0.05). Under a stronger validator (Qwen-3.6-Plus), the raw QKG gain over the no-validator baseline grows from +1.40 pp to +5.96 pp; the context-matching gap is non-significant (p=0.73) on the raw set but becomes borderline significant (p=0.05) after adjustment for knowledge leakage and suspicious questions, consistent with a benchmark-gold ceiling rather than a QKG limitation. Taken together, the results support the view that the value of a KG in LLM-based clinical reasoning lies not merely in storing medically related facts, but in representing whether those facts are applicable to the specific patient context. For reproducibility and further research, we release the curated QKG datasets and source code.https://github.com/HKAI-Sci/QKG

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have substantially advanced text-to-code synthesis, many real programming tasks specify intent through visual artifacts such as screenshots, charts, vector drawings, videos, and interactive states. These tasks require models to connect visual perception to executable programs, because correctness depends not only on syntax but also on layout, data semantics, interaction behavior, and domain-specific constraints that apply after execution. This survey examines Multimodal Code Intelligence, covering systems that generate, edit, refine, or reason with code under visually grounded inputs and outputs. We first formulate the field by the role that code plays in each task, distinguishing code as a rendered artifact, an editable symbolic structure, a scientific representation, an intermediate reasoning trace, or an executable policy or tool interface. We then organize benchmarks and methods into four domains: Graphical User Interface, Scientific Visualization, Structured Graphics, and Frontier Tasks and Frameworks. This taxonomy connects mature artifact-generation problems to emerging agentic and unified settings and allows us to compare how different tasks treat evidence of correctness. Looking ahead, we argue that future research may benefit from four verification-centered directions. Multi-signal validation can combine complementary evidence of correctness, multi-state verification can test behavior across execution trajectories, cross-task transfer testing can probe reusable visual-code skills, and verifiable agent traces can reveal whether agent actions are grounded in visual evidence. Together, these directions may move this field from single-output imitation toward evidence-grounded executable systems. An ongoing project and resources are available on https://github.com/xjywhu/Awesome-Multimodal-LLM-for-Code{GitHub}.

While Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) excel in general multimodal tasks, they lack the domain-specific knowledge for industrial vibration signal analysis. This paper introduces VSLLaVA, a comprehensive pipeline that utilizes expert knowledge-guided instruction tuning and evaluation to create an end-to-end LMM for signal analysis. To achieve this, we construct a novel Signal-Question-Answer (SQA) dataset using an expert rule-based signal generator. This dataset facilitates a two-stage learning procedure. The first step is efficient instruction fine-tuning with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), which imparts specialized signal identification capabilities. Subsequently, we designed a tailored Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to refine the reasoning capabilities and enhance classification robustness. Then, a dual-mode evaluation framework is proposed, combining an LLM referee with expert rules for semantic assessment using quantitative metrics for numerical and textual accuracy, which reveals that VSLLaVA significantly improves performance in signal type identification and parameter analysis, and makes progress in the identification and parameter analysis of fault-related signals. This research demonstrates a viable approach for developing specialized foundational models for complex industrial applications and marks a transition from conventional task-specific systems to a cohesive, interactive foundational model.

Training modern neural networks is increasingly fragile, with rare but severe destabilizing updates often causing irreversible divergence or silent performance degradation. Existing optimization methods primarily rely on preventive mechanisms embedded within the optimizer, offering limited ability to detect and recover from instability once it occurs. We introduce a supervisory runtime stability framework that treats optimization as a controlled stochastic process. By isolating an innovation signal derived from secondary measurements, such as validation probes, the framework enables automatic detection and recovery from destabilizing updates without modifying the underlying optimizer. We provide theoretical runtime safety guarantees that formalize bounded degradation and recovery. Our implementation incurs minimal overhead and is compatible with memory-constrained training settings.

The key limitation of the verification performance lies in the ability of error detection. With this intuition we designed several variants of pessimistic verification, which are simple workflows that could significantly improve the verification of open-ended math questions. In pessimistic verification we construct multiple parallel verifications for the same proof, and the proof is deemed incorrect if any one of them reports an error. This simple technique significantly improves the performance across many math verification benchmarks without incurring substantial computational resources. Its token efficiency even surpassed extended long-CoT in test-time scaling. Our case studies further indicate that the majority of false negatives in stronger models are actually caused by annotation errors in the original dataset, so our method's performance is in fact underestimated. Self-verification for mathematical problems can effectively improve the reliability and performance of language model outputs, and it also plays a critical role in enabling long-horizon mathematical tasks. We believe that research on pessimistic verification will help enhance the mathematical capabilities of language models across a wide range of tasks.

A classical intuition holds that verifying a solution is easier than producing one. For today's coding agents, this intuition is being inverted: as foundation models develop stronger reasoning capabilities and engineering harnesses grow more sophisticated, generating complex candidate solutions is no longer difficult -- reliably verifying them has become the harder problem. Every verifier we can build is only a proxy for human intent, never the intent itself. This makes verification subject to a twofold difficulty: first, intent is underspecified by nature, making it inherently hard to faithfully check whether it has been fulfilled; second, during model training, optimization widens the gap between proxy and intent -- manifesting as reward hacking or signal saturation. To address this, we characterize the quality of verification signals along three dimensions -- scalability, faithfulness, and robustness -- and argue that achieving all three simultaneously is the central challenge. We further study four reward constructions: a test verifier for general coding tasks, a rubric verifier for frontend tasks, the user as verifier for real-world agent tasks, and an automated agent verifier for long-horizon tasks. Across different task types and policy capability levels, we conduct in-depth analysis and experiments on the core challenges of reward design and how to more effectively leverage reward signals. Experiments show that targeted verification design can effectively suppress reward hacking, improve task completion quality, and achieve significant gains across multiple internal and public benchmarks. These experiences collectively point to a core observation: no fixed reward function can remain effective as policy capability continues to grow; and verification must co-evolve with the generator.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have catalyzed vibe coding, where users leverage LLMs to generate and iteratively refine code through natural language interactions until it passes their vibe check. Vibe check is tied to real-world human preference and goes beyond functionality: the solution should feel right, read cleanly, preserve intent, and remain correct. However, current code evaluation remains anchored to pass@k and captures only functional correctness, overlooking the non-functional instructions that users routinely apply. In this paper, we hypothesize that instruction following is the missing piece underlying vibe check that represents human preference in coding besides functional correctness. To quantify models' code instruction following capabilities with measurable signals, we present VeriCode, a taxonomy of 30 verifiable code instructions together with corresponding deterministic verifiers. We use the taxonomy to augment established evaluation suites, resulting in Vibe Checker, a testbed to assess both code instruction following and functional correctness. Upon evaluating 31 leading LLMs, we show that even the strongest models struggle to comply with multiple instructions and exhibit clear functional regression. Most importantly, a composite score of functional correctness and instruction following correlates the best with human preference, with the latter emerging as the primary differentiator on real-world programming tasks. Our work identifies core factors of the vibe check, providing a concrete path for benchmarking and developing models that better align with user preferences in coding.

Machine learning models, particularly deep neural networks, have demonstrated strong performance in classifying complex time series data. However, their black-box nature limits trust and adoption, especially in high-stakes domains such as healthcare. To address this challenge, we introduce UniCoMTE, a model-agnostic framework for generating counterfactual explanations for multivariate time series classifiers. The framework identifies temporal features that most heavily influence a model's prediction by modifying the input sample and assessing its impact on the model's prediction. UniCoMTE is compatible with a wide range of model architectures and operates directly on raw time series inputs. In this study, we evaluate UniCoMTE's explanations on a time series ECG classifier. We quantify explanation quality by comparing our explanations' comprehensibility to comprehensibility of established techniques (LIME and SHAP) and assessing their generalizability to similar samples. Furthermore, clinical utility is assessed through a questionnaire completed by medical experts who review counterfactual explanations presented alongside original ECG samples. Results show that our approach produces concise, stable, and human-aligned explanations that outperform existing methods in both clarity and applicability. By linking model predictions to meaningful signal patterns, the framework advances the interpretability of deep learning models for real-world time series applications.

Studies of bias in LLM-as-judge systems typically build synthetic corpora by prompting an LLM to generate a hallucinated answer to pair with a factual one, then presenting both to a judge. We report a case in which this generation step silently failed, and use it to argue that the failure mode is structural rather than incidental. In a multilingual (Turkish/English) faithfulness-judgment corpus, a decoding-budget parameter shared between judging and generation calls truncated one producer's hallucinated answers to a few words. The resulting items produced a large, statistically robust effect: a 32-point cross-lingual collapse in one judge's selection accuracy, replicated from N=50 to N=500, explained by a three-layer mechanistic account, and confirmed by a controlled producer-swap experiment, none of which was real. The effect vanished to ceiling once the shared parameter was corrected, and only manual reading of the raw generations, not any aggregate statistical check, exposed the fault. A second measured bias (Markdown-formatting preference) was not fabricated but distorted by the same fault, its magnitude and in one case its sign shifting with stimulus length, a mode aggregate metrics cannot distinguish from the first. We frame the underlying vulnerability using the test oracle problem: corpora whose negative examples are LLM-generated carry no mechanical way to verify item integrity, while corpora built by deterministic perturbation of a gold answer carry an item-level oracle for free. A positive control supports this claim directly: an analogous fault injected into a minimal perturbation-based corpus is caught with 100% accuracy by a zero-cost, zero-human gold-to-negative string comparison. We close with a validation protocol, derived from our own case, for analysts working in the oracle-less regime that we argue describes most contemporary multilingual LLM-as-judge corpora.

Machine learning models always make a prediction, even when it is likely to be inaccurate. This behavior should be avoided in many decision support applications, where mistakes can have severe consequences. Albeit already studied in 1970, machine learning with rejection recently gained interest. This machine learning subfield enables machine learning models to abstain from making a prediction when likely to make a mistake. This survey aims to provide an overview on machine learning with rejection. We introduce the conditions leading to two types of rejection, ambiguity and novelty rejection, which we carefully formalize. Moreover, we review and categorize strategies to evaluate a model's predictive and rejective quality. Additionally, we define the existing architectures for models with rejection and describe the standard techniques for learning such models. Finally, we provide examples of relevant application domains and show how machine learning with rejection relates to other machine learning research areas.

While deep learning has led to huge progress in complex image classification tasks like ImageNet, unexpected failure modes, e.g. via spurious features, call into question how reliably these classifiers work in the wild. Furthermore, for safety-critical tasks the black-box nature of their decisions is problematic, and explanations or at least methods which make decisions plausible are needed urgently. In this paper, we address these problems by generating images that optimize a classifier-derived objective using a framework for guided image generation. We analyze the decisions of image classifiers by visual counterfactual explanations (VCEs), detection of systematic mistakes by analyzing images where classifiers maximally disagree, and visualization of neurons and spurious features. In this way, we validate existing observations, e.g. the shape bias of adversarially robust models, as well as novel failure modes, e.g. systematic errors of zero-shot CLIP classifiers. Moreover, our VCEs outperform previous work while being more versatile.

Electrocardiography (ECG) serves as an indispensable diagnostic tool in clinical practice, yet existing multimodal large language models (MLLMs) remain unreliable for ECG interpretation, often producing plausible but clinically incorrect analyses. To address this, we propose ECG-R1, the first reasoning MLLM designed for reliable ECG interpretation via three innovations. First, we construct the interpretation corpus using Protocol-Guided Instruction Data Generation, grounding interpretation in measurable ECG features and monograph-defined quantitative thresholds and diagnostic logic. Second, we present a modality-decoupled architecture with Interleaved Modality Dropout to improve robustness and cross-modal consistency when either the ECG signal or ECG image is missing. Third, we present Reinforcement Learning with ECG Diagnostic Evidence Rewards to strengthen evidence-grounded ECG interpretation. Additionally, we systematically evaluate the ECG interpretation capabilities of proprietary, open-source, and medical MLLMs, and provide the first quantitative evidence that severe hallucinations are widespread, suggesting that the public should not directly trust these outputs without independent verification. Code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/PKUDigitalHealth/ECG-R1{here}, and an online platform can be accessed at http://ai.heartvoice.com.cn/ECG-R1/{here}.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

Advances in training, post-training, and inference-time methods have enabled frontier reasoning models to win gold medals in math competitions and settle challenging open problems. Gaining trust in the responses of these models requires that natural language proofs be checked for errors. LLM judges are increasingly being adopted to meet the growing demand for evaluating such proofs. While verification is considered easier than generation, what model capability does reliable verification actually require? We systematically evaluate four open-source and two frontier LLMs on datasets of human-graded natural language proofs of competition-level problems. We consider two key metrics: verifier accuracy and self-consistency (the rate of agreement across repeated judgments on the same proof). We observe that smaller open-source models are only up to ~10% behind frontier models in accuracy but they are up to ~25% more inconsistent. Furthermore, we see that verifier accuracy is sensitive to prompt choice across all models. We then demonstrate that the smaller models, in fact, do possess the mathematical capabilities to verify proofs at the level of frontier models, but they struggle to reliably elicit these capabilities with general judging prompts. Through an LLM-guided prompt search, we synthesize an ensemble of specialized prompts that overcome the specific failure modes of smaller models, boosting their performance by up to 9.1% in accuracy and 15.9% in self-consistency. These gains are realized across models and datasets, allowing models like Qwen3.5-35B to perform on par with frontier models such as Gemini 3.1 Pro for proof verification.

Continuous evaluation of LLM products relies on a strong LLM judge treated as ground truth: a cheap monitor scores every interaction and a team is paged when the score drifts down. But the judge is itself a model behind an API, and a silent version bump or scoring-prompt update changes how it scores -- so every drift alarm is ambiguous between a worse product and a changed judge. We resolve the ambiguity with a fixed, human-labeled anchor set that the current judge re-scores at a steady interleave, a second betting e-process on the judge-versus-human gap, and a guard-window rule returning a verdict in {none, system, judge}. We prove anytime-validity, one-way identification (only the judge can move the anchors), an attribution race whose design law is that the anchors must out-run the main process they guard, and process orthogonality. On two real judge changes, a silent version bump is detected as judge drift in 60/60 runs with zero judge-to-system misattribution, and a contaminating strict-prompt change is correctly attributed on 110 of 120 runs at guard width 300 -- while the industry-default rolling z-test false-alarms on 75% of drift-free streams. Every experiment replicates on a second domain (TL;DR summarization) with nothing re-tuned, and where the domains differ the differences are the ones the race predicts: the strict-prompt change shifts scores harder there, so the anchors fire faster and attribution becomes perfect (240/240). The monitor runs at approximately 0.64 of the cost of strong-judging every item, or 0.21 in a cheaper-but-deafer regime.

Speech produced by human vocal apparatus conveys substantial non-semantic information including the gender of the speaker, voice quality, affective state, abnormalities in the vocal apparatus etc. Such information is attributed to the properties of the voice source signal, which is usually estimated from the speech signal. However, most of the source estimation techniques depend heavily on the goodness of the model assumptions and are prone to noise. A popular alternative is to indirectly obtain the source information through the Electroglottographic (EGG) signal that measures the electrical admittance around the vocal folds using dedicated hardware. In this paper, we address the problem of estimating the EGG signal directly from the speech signal, devoid of any hardware. Sampling from the intractable conditional distribution of the EGG signal given the speech signal is accomplished through optimization of an evidence lower bound. This is constructed via minimization of the KL-divergence between the true and the approximated posteriors of a latent variable learned using a deep neural auto-encoder that serves an informative prior. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method at generating the EGG signal by conducting several experiments on datasets comprising multiple speakers, voice qualities, noise settings and speech pathologies. The proposed method is evaluated on many benchmark metrics and is found to agree with the gold standard while proving better than the state-of-the-art algorithms on a few tasks such as epoch extraction.

Mathematical verfier achieves success in mathematical reasoning tasks by validating the correctness of solutions. However, existing verifiers are trained with binary classification labels, which are not informative enough for the model to accurately assess the solutions. To mitigate the aforementioned insufficiency of binary labels, we introduce step-wise natural language feedbacks as rationale labels (i.e., the correctness of the current step and the explanations). In this paper, we propose Math-Minos, a natural language feedback enhanced verifier by constructing automatically-generated training data and a two-stage training paradigm for effective training and efficient inference. Our experiments reveal that a small set (30k) of natural language feedbacks can significantly boost the performance of the verifier by the accuracy of 1.6\% (86.6\% rightarrow 88.2\%) on GSM8K and 0.8\% (37.8\% rightarrow 38.6\%) on MATH. We have released our code and data for further exploration.

Current Chain-of-Thought (CoT) verification methods predict reasoning correctness based on outputs (black-box) or activations (gray-box), but offer limited insight into why a computation fails. We introduce a white-box method: Circuit-based Reasoning Verification (CRV). We hypothesize that attribution graphs of correct CoT steps, viewed as execution traces of the model's latent reasoning circuits, possess distinct structural fingerprints from those of incorrect steps. By training a classifier on structural features of these graphs, we show that these traces contain a powerful signal of reasoning errors. Our white-box approach yields novel scientific insights unattainable by other methods. (1) We demonstrate that structural signatures of error are highly predictive, establishing the viability of verifying reasoning directly via its computational graph. (2) We find these signatures to be highly domain-specific, revealing that failures in different reasoning tasks manifest as distinct computational patterns. (3) We provide evidence that these signatures are not merely correlational; by using our analysis to guide targeted interventions on individual transcoder features, we successfully correct the model's faulty reasoning. Our work shows that, by scrutinizing a model's computational process, we can move from simple error detection to a deeper, causal understanding of LLM reasoning.

Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have witnessed remarkable growth, showcasing formidable capabilities in handling intricate multimodal tasks with exceptional performance. Recent research has underscored the inclination of large language models to passively accept defective inputs, often resulting in futile reasoning on invalid prompts. However, the same critical question of whether LMMs can actively detect and scrutinize erroneous inputs still remains unexplored. To address this gap, we introduce the Input Scrutiny Ability Evaluation Framework (ISEval), which encompasses seven categories of flawed premises and three evaluation metrics. Our extensive evaluation of ten advanced LMMs has identified key findings. Most models struggle to actively detect flawed textual premises without guidance, which reflects a strong reliance on explicit prompts for premise error identification. Error type affects performance: models excel at identifying logical fallacies but struggle with surface-level linguistic errors and certain conditional flaws. Modality trust varies-Gemini 2.5 pro and Claude Sonnet 4 balance visual and textual info, while aya-vision-8b over-rely on text in conflicts. These insights underscore the urgent need to enhance LMMs' proactive verification of input validity and shed novel insights into mitigating the problem. The code is available at https://github.com/MLGroupJLU/LMM_ISEval.

Process reward models (PRMs) that provide dense, step-level feedback have shown promise for reinforcement learning, yet their adoption remains limited by the need for expensive step-level annotations or ground truth references. We propose SPARK: a three-stage framework where in the first stage a generator model produces diverse solutions and a verifier model evaluates them using parallel scaling (self-consistency) and sequential scaling (meta-critique). In the second stage, we use these verification outputs as synthetic training data to fine-tune generative process reward models, which subsequently serve as reward signals during training. We show that aggregating multiple independent verifications at the step level produces training data for process reward models that surpass ground-truth outcome supervision, achieving 67.5 F1 on ProcessBench (a benchmark for identifying erroneous steps in mathematical reasoning) compared to 66.4 for reference-guided training and 61.9 for GPT-4o. In the final stage, we apply our generative PRM with chain-of-thought verification (PRM-CoT) as the reward model in RL experiments on mathematical reasoning, and introduce format constraints to prevent reward hacking. Using Qwen2.5-Math-7B, we achieve 47.4% average accuracy across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks, outperforming ground-truth-based RLVR (43.9%). Our work enables reference-free RL training that exceeds ground-truth methods, opening new possibilities for domains lacking verifiable answers or accessible ground truth.

Current paradigms for code verification rely heavily on external mechanisms-such as execution-based unit tests or auxiliary LLM judges-which are often labor-intensive or limited by the judging model's own capabilities. This raises a fundamental, yet unexplored question: Can an LLM's functional correctness be assessed purely from its internal computational structure? Our primary objective is to investigate whether the model's neural dynamics encode internally decodable signals that are predictive of logical validity during code generation. Inspired by mechanistic interpretability, we propose to treat code verification as a mechanistic diagnostic task, mapping the model's explicit algorithmic trajectory into line-level attribution graphs. By decomposing complex residual flows, we aim to identify the structural signatures that distinguish sound reasoning from logical failure within the model's internal circuits. Analysis across Python, C++, and Java confirms that intrinsic correctness signals are robust across diverse syntaxes. Topological features from these internal graphs predict correctness more reliably than surface heuristics and enable targeted causal interventions to fix erroneous logic. These findings establish internal introspection as a decodable property for verifying generated code. Our code is at https:// github.com/bruno686/CodeCircuit.

We might hope that when faced with unexpected inputs, well-designed software systems would fire off warnings. Machine learning (ML) systems, however, which depend strongly on properties of their inputs (e.g. the i.i.d. assumption), tend to fail silently. This paper explores the problem of building ML systems that fail loudly, investigating methods for detecting dataset shift, identifying exemplars that most typify the shift, and quantifying shift malignancy. We focus on several datasets and various perturbations to both covariates and label distributions with varying magnitudes and fractions of data affected. Interestingly, we show that across the dataset shifts that we explore, a two-sample-testing-based approach, using pre-trained classifiers for dimensionality reduction, performs best. Moreover, we demonstrate that domain-discriminating approaches tend to be helpful for characterizing shifts qualitatively and determining if they are harmful.

Context can change whether a request is harmful without changing its topic or surface form. We ask whether residual-stream probes distinguish harmful requests from surface-matched benign controls at a useful operating point. Across three 7-8B model families, an activation sensor blocks 95.5-97.7 percent of judge-classified compliant attacks in a taxonomy-selected set. It also blocks 59.6-68.4 percent of XSTest prompts. A fully disjoint audit reconstructs near-ceiling source-contrast AUROC (0.996-0.999), but fixed transfer to matched pairs is weaker: 0.656-0.819 on the guard-selected Twin-n70 subset and 0.590-0.690 on the full Twin-n163 cohort. We test ten axes on the reference family and seven across all families with leakage, hold-out, and permutation controls. On Twin-n163, no axis evaluated without direct pair-boundary fitting reaches the specified numerical threshold. Requiring persistence on that full cohort was added at analysis time. A separately specified 24B/32B extension gives the same result. Pair-trained classifiers weaken under category and generation-batch hold-out and false-block 79.6-100 percent of XSTest at 95 percent in-corpus TPR. At the tested read points, these activation scores behave as broad-risk detectors rather than standalone context adjudicators.

Medical coding is the task of assigning medical codes to clinical free-text documentation. Healthcare professionals manually assign such codes to track patient diagnoses and treatments. Automated medical coding can considerably alleviate this administrative burden. In this paper, we reproduce, compare, and analyze state-of-the-art automated medical coding machine learning models. We show that several models underperform due to weak configurations, poorly sampled train-test splits, and insufficient evaluation. In previous work, the macro F1 score has been calculated sub-optimally, and our correction doubles it. We contribute a revised model comparison using stratified sampling and identical experimental setups, including hyperparameters and decision boundary tuning. We analyze prediction errors to validate and falsify assumptions of previous works. The analysis confirms that all models struggle with rare codes, while long documents only have a negligible impact. Finally, we present the first comprehensive results on the newly released MIMIC-IV dataset using the reproduced models. We release our code, model parameters, and new MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV training and evaluation pipelines to accommodate fair future comparisons.

We present a foundation model-derived method to identify highly informative tokens and events in electronic health records. Our approach considers incoming data in the entire context of a patient's hospitalization and so can flag anomalous events that rule-based approaches would consider within a normal range. We demonstrate that the events our model flags are significant for predicting downstream patient outcomes and that a fraction of events identified as carrying little information can safely be dropped. Additionally, we show how informativeness can help interpret the predictions of prognostic models trained on foundation model-derived representations.

Process Reward Models (PRMs), which provide step-by-step feedback on the reasoning generated by Large Language Models (LLMs), are receiving increasing attention. However, two key research gaps remain: collecting accurate step-level error labels for training typically requires costly human annotation, and existing PRMs are limited to math reasoning problems. In response to these gaps, this paper aims to address the challenges of automatic dataset creation and the generalization of PRMs to diverse reasoning tasks. To achieve this goal, we propose FoVer, an approach for training PRMs on step-level error labels automatically annotated by formal verification tools, such as Z3 for formal logic and Isabelle for theorem proof, which provide automatic and accurate verification for symbolic tasks. Using this approach, we synthesize a training dataset with error labels on LLM responses for formal logic and theorem proof tasks without human annotation. Although this data synthesis is feasible only for tasks compatible with formal verification, we observe that LLM-based PRMs trained on our dataset exhibit cross-task generalization, improving verification across diverse reasoning tasks. Specifically, PRMs trained with FoVer significantly outperform baseline PRMs based on the original LLMs and achieve competitive or superior results compared to state-of-the-art PRMs trained on labels annotated by humans or stronger models, as measured by step-level verification on ProcessBench and Best-of-K performance across 12 reasoning benchmarks, including MATH, AIME, ANLI, MMLU, and BBH. The datasets, models, and code are provided at https://github.com/psunlpgroup/FoVer.

Modern CI/CD pipelines integrating agent-generated code exhibit a structural failure in responsibility attribution. Decisions are executed through formally correct approval processes, yet no entity possesses both the authority to approve those decisions and the epistemic capacity to meaningfully understand their basis. We define this condition as responsibility vacuum: a state in which decisions occur, but responsibility cannot be attributed because authority and verification capacity do not coincide. We show that this is not a process deviation or technical defect, but a structural property of deployments where decision generation throughput exceeds bounded human verification capacity. We identify a scaling limit under standard deployment assumptions, including parallel agent generation, CI-based validation, and individualized human approval gates. Beyond a throughput threshold, verification ceases to function as a decision criterion and is replaced by ritualized approval based on proxy signals. Personalized responsibility becomes structurally unattainable in this regime. We further characterize a CI amplification dynamic, whereby increasing automated validation coverage raises proxy signal density without restoring human capacity. Under fixed time and attention constraints, this accelerates cognitive offloading in the broad sense and widens the gap between formal approval and epistemic understanding. Additional automation therefore amplifies, rather than mitigates, the responsibility vacuum. We conclude that unless organizations explicitly redesign decision boundaries or reassign responsibility away from individual decisions toward batch- or system-level ownership, responsibility vacuum remains an invisible but persistent failure mode in scaled agent deployments.

Fake audio detection is a growing concern and some relevant datasets have been designed for research. However, there is no standard public Chinese dataset under complex conditions.In this paper, we aim to fill in the gap and design a Chinese fake audio detection dataset (CFAD) for studying more generalized detection methods. Twelve mainstream speech-generation techniques are used to generate fake audio. To simulate the real-life scenarios, three noise datasets are selected for noise adding at five different signal-to-noise ratios, and six codecs are considered for audio transcoding (format conversion). CFAD dataset can be used not only for fake audio detection but also for detecting the algorithms of fake utterances for audio forensics. Baseline results are presented with analysis. The results that show fake audio detection methods with generalization remain challenging. The CFAD dataset is publicly available at: https://zenodo.org/record/8122764.

Background: AI-driven prediction algorithms have the potential to enhance emergency medicine by enabling rapid and accurate decision-making regarding patient status and potential deterioration. However, the integration of multimodal data, including raw waveform signals, remains underexplored in clinical decision support. Methods: We present a dataset and benchmarking protocol designed to advance multimodal decision support in emergency care. Our models utilize demographics, biometrics, vital signs, laboratory values, and electrocardiogram (ECG) waveforms as inputs to predict both discharge diagnoses and patient deterioration. Results: The diagnostic model achieves area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) scores above 0.8 for 609 out of 1,428 conditions, covering both cardiac (e.g., myocardial infarction) and non-cardiac (e.g., renal disease, diabetes) diagnoses. The deterioration model attains AUROC scores above 0.8 for 14 out of 15 targets, accurately predicting critical events such as cardiac arrest, mechanical ventilation, ICU admission, and mortality. Conclusions: Our study highlights the positive impact of incorporating raw waveform data into decision support models, improving predictive performance. By introducing a unique, publicly available dataset and baseline models, we provide a foundation for measurable progress in AI-driven decision support for emergency care.

Diffusion models have emerged as a pivotal advancement in generative models, setting new standards to the quality of the generated instances. In the current paper we aim to underscore a discrepancy between conventional training methods and the desired conditional sampling behavior of these models. While the prevalent classifier-free guidance technique works well, it's not without flaws. At higher values for the guidance scale parameter w, we often get out of distribution samples and mode collapse, whereas at lower values for w we may not get the desired specificity. To address these challenges, we introduce an updated loss function that better aligns training objectives with sampling behaviors. Experimental validation with FID scores on CIFAR-10 elucidates our method's ability to produce higher quality samples with fewer sampling timesteps, and be more robust to the choice of guidance scale w. We also experiment with fine-tuning Stable Diffusion on the proposed loss, to provide early evidence that large diffusion models may also benefit from this refined loss function.

We describe our development of CSS10, a collection of single speaker speech datasets for ten languages. It is composed of short audio clips from LibriVox audiobooks and their aligned texts. To validate its quality we train two neural text-to-speech models on each dataset. Subsequently, we conduct Mean Opinion Score tests on the synthesized speech samples. We make our datasets, pre-trained models, and test resources publicly available. We hope they will be used for future speech tasks.

Without proper safeguards, large language models will readily follow malicious instructions and generate toxic content. This motivates safety efforts such as red-teaming and large-scale feedback learning, which aim to make models both helpful and harmless. However, there is a tension between these two objectives, since harmlessness requires models to refuse complying with unsafe prompts, and thus not be helpful. Recent anecdotal evidence suggests that some models may have struck a poor balance, so that even clearly safe prompts are refused if they use similar language to unsafe prompts or mention sensitive topics. In this paper, we introduce a new test suite called XSTest to identify such eXaggerated Safety behaviours in a structured and systematic way. In its current form, XSTest comprises 200 safe prompts across ten prompt types that well-calibrated models should not refuse to comply with. We describe XSTest's creation and composition, and use the test suite to highlight systematic failure modes in a recently-released state-of-the-art language model.

Test-time scaling improves the reasoning performance of large language models but often results in token-inefficient overthinking, where models continue reasoning beyond what is necessary for a correct answer. Existing dynamic early-exit methods typically rely on single-step confidence signals, which are often unreliable for detecting reasoning convergence in multi-step settings. To mitigate this limitation, we propose TRACE, a training-free framework for efficient test-time scaling that determines when to terminate reasoning based on temporal aggregation of multi-step evidence rather than instantaneous signals. TRACE detects reasoning convergence over time by aggregating two complementary signals across recent reasoning steps: answer consistency, capturing the persistence of predicted answers, and confidence trajectory, modeling the temporal evolution of model confidence. Benefiting from these two factors, TRACE can accurately determine whether the reasoning process has converged, thereby promptly halting inference and effectively avoiding redundant reasoning steps. Extensive experiments on multiple challenging benchmarks show that TRACE reduces reasoning token usage by 25-30% on average while maintaining accuracy within 1-2% of full-length reasoning, consistently outperforming existing dynamic reasoning methods.

Recent benchmarks reveal that models for single-cell perturbation response are often outperformed by simply predicting the dataset mean. We trace this anomaly to a metric artifact: control-referenced deltas and unweighted error metrics reward mode collapse whenever the control is biased or the biological signal is sparse. Large-scale in silico simulations and analysis of two real-world perturbation datasets confirm that shared reference shifts, not genuine biological change, drives high performance in these evaluations. We introduce differentially expressed gene (DEG)-aware metrics, weighted mean-squared error (WMSE) and weighted delta R^{2} (R^{2}_{w}(Δ)) with respect to all perturbations, that measure error in niche signals with high sensitivity. We further introduce negative and positive performance baselines to calibrate these metrics. With these improvements, the mean baseline sinks to null performance while genuine predictors are correctly rewarded. Finally, we show that using WMSE as a loss function reduces mode collapse and improves model performance.

With the rapid deployment of SCADA systems, how to effectively analyze industrial signals and detect abnormal states is an urgent need for the industry. Due to the significant heterogeneity of these signals, which we summarize as the M5 problem, previous works only focus on small sub-problems and employ specialized models, failing to utilize the synergies between modalities and the powerful scaling law. However, we argue that the M5 signals can be modeled in a unified manner due to the intrinsic similarity. As a result, we propose FISHER, a Foundation model for multi-modal Industrial Signal compreHEnsive Representation. To support arbitrary sampling rates, FISHER considers the increment of sampling rate as the concatenation of sub-band information. Specifically, FISHER takes the STFT sub-band as the modeling unit and adopts a teacher student SSL framework for pre-training. We also develop the RMIS benchmark, which evaluates the representations of M5 industrial signals on multiple health management tasks. Compared with top SSL models, FISHER showcases versatile and outstanding capabilities with a general performance gain up to 5.03%, along with much more efficient scaling curves. We also investigate the scaling law on downstream tasks and derive potential avenues for future works. FISHER is now open-sourced on https://github.com/jianganbai/FISHER