Daily Papers

Citation count of a paper is a commonly used proxy for evaluating the significance of a paper in the scientific community. Yet citation measures are widely criticized for failing to accurately reflect the true impact of a paper. Thus, we propose CausalCite, a new way to measure the significance of a paper by assessing the causal impact of the paper on its follow-up papers. CausalCite is based on a novel causal inference method, TextMatch, which adapts the traditional matching framework to high-dimensional text embeddings. TextMatch encodes each paper using text embeddings from large language models (LLMs), extracts similar samples by cosine similarity, and synthesizes a counterfactual sample as the weighted average of similar papers according to their similarity values. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CausalCite on various criteria, such as high correlation with paper impact as reported by scientific experts on a previous dataset of 1K papers, (test-of-time) awards for past papers, and its stability across various subfields of AI. We also provide a set of findings that can serve as suggested ways for future researchers to use our metric for a better understanding of the quality of a paper. Our code is available at https://github.com/causalNLP/causal-cite.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Image generation models have achieved widespread applications. As an instance, the TarFlow model combines the transformer architecture with Normalizing Flow models, achieving state-of-the-art results on multiple benchmarks. However, due to the causal form of attention requiring sequential computation, TarFlow's sampling process is extremely slow. In this paper, we demonstrate that through a series of optimization strategies, TarFlow sampling can be greatly accelerated by using the Gauss-Seidel-Jacobi (abbreviated as GS-Jacobi) iteration method. Specifically, we find that blocks in the TarFlow model have varying importance: a small number of blocks play a major role in image generation tasks, while other blocks contribute relatively little; some blocks are sensitive to initial values and prone to numerical overflow, while others are relatively robust. Based on these two characteristics, we propose the Convergence Ranking Metric (CRM) and the Initial Guessing Metric (IGM): CRM is used to identify whether a TarFlow block is "simple" (converges in few iterations) or "tough" (requires more iterations); IGM is used to evaluate whether the initial value of the iteration is good. Experiments on four TarFlow models demonstrate that GS-Jacobi sampling can significantly enhance sampling efficiency while maintaining the quality of generated images (measured by FID), achieving speed-ups of 4.53x in Img128cond, 5.32x in AFHQ, 2.96x in Img64uncond, and 2.51x in Img64cond without degrading FID scores or sample quality. Code and checkpoints are accessible on https://github.com/encoreus/GS-Jacobi_for_TarFlow

Vision transformers have significantly advanced the field of computer vision, offering robust modeling capabilities and global receptive field. However, their high computational demands limit their applicability in processing long sequences. To tackle this issue, State Space Models (SSMs) have gained prominence in vision tasks as they offer linear computational complexity. Recently, State Space Duality (SSD), an improved variant of SSMs, was introduced in Mamba2 to enhance model performance and efficiency. However, the inherent causal nature of SSD/SSMs restricts their applications in non-causal vision tasks. To address this limitation, we introduce Visual State Space Duality (VSSD) model, which has a non-causal format of SSD. Specifically, we propose to discard the magnitude of interactions between the hidden state and tokens while preserving their relative weights, which relieves the dependencies of token contribution on previous tokens. Together with the involvement of multi-scan strategies, we show that the scanning results can be integrated to achieve non-causality, which not only improves the performance of SSD in vision tasks but also enhances its efficiency. We conduct extensive experiments on various benchmarks including image classification, detection, and segmentation, where VSSD surpasses existing state-of-the-art SSM-based models. Code and weights are available at https://github.com/YuHengsss/VSSD.

Can classical game-theoretic frameworks be extended to capture the bounded rationality and causal reasoning of AI agents? We investigate this question by extending Causal Normal Form Games (CNFGs) to sequential settings, introducing Sequential Causal Multi-Agent Systems (S-CMAS) that incorporate Pearl's Causal Hierarchy across leader-follower interactions. While theoretically elegant -- we prove PSPACE-completeness, develop equilibrium refinements, and establish connections to signaling theory -- our comprehensive empirical investigation reveals a critical limitation: S-CNE provides zero welfare improvement over classical Stackelberg equilibrium across all tested scenarios. Through 50+ Monte Carlo simulations and hand-crafted synthetic examples, we demonstrate that backward induction with rational best-response eliminates any strategic advantage from causal layer distinctions. We construct a theoretical example illustrating conditions where benefits could emerge (ε-rational satisficing followers), though implementation confirms that even relaxed rationality assumptions prove insufficient when good instincts align with optimal play. This negative result provides valuable insight: classical game-theoretic extensions grounded in rational choice are fundamentally incompatible with causal reasoning advantages, motivating new theoretical frameworks beyond standard Nash equilibrium for agentic AI.

Despite recent advances in video understanding, the capabilities of Large Video Language Models (LVLMs) to perform video-based causal reasoning remains underexplored, largely due to the absence of relevant and dedicated benchmarks for evaluating causal reasoning in visually grounded and goal-driven settings. To fill this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark named Video-based long-form Causal Reasoning (VCRBench). We create VCRBench using procedural videos of simple everyday activities, where the steps are deliberately shuffled with each clip capturing a key causal event, to test whether LVLMs can identify, reason about, and correctly sequence the events needed to accomplish a specific goal. Moreover, the benchmark is carefully designed to prevent LVLMs from exploiting linguistic shortcuts, as seen in multiple-choice or binary QA formats, while also avoiding the challenges associated with evaluating open-ended QA. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art LVLMs on VCRBench suggests that these models struggle with video-based long-form causal reasoning, primarily due to their difficulty in modeling long-range causal dependencies directly from visual observations. As a simple step toward enabling such capabilities, we propose Recognition-Reasoning Decomposition (RRD), a modular approach that breaks video-based causal reasoning into two sub-tasks of video recognition and causal reasoning. Our experiments on VCRBench show that RRD significantly boosts accuracy on VCRBench, with gains of up to 25.2%. Finally, our thorough analysis reveals interesting insights, for instance, that LVLMs primarily rely on language knowledge for complex video-based long-form causal reasoning tasks.

Speech understanding as an element of the more generic video understanding using audio-visual large language models (av-LLMs) is a crucial yet understudied aspect. This paper proposes video-SALMONN, a single end-to-end av-LLM for video processing, which can understand not only visual frame sequences, audio events and music, but speech as well. To obtain fine-grained temporal information required by speech understanding, while keeping efficient for other video elements, this paper proposes a novel multi-resolution causal Q-Former (MRC Q-Former) structure to connect pre-trained audio-visual encoders and the backbone large language model. Moreover, dedicated training approaches including the diversity loss and the unpaired audio-visual mixed training scheme are proposed to avoid frames or modality dominance. On the introduced speech-audio-visual evaluation benchmark, video-SALMONN achieves more than 25\% absolute accuracy improvements on the video-QA task and over 30\% absolute accuracy improvements on audio-visual QA tasks with human speech. In addition, video-SALMONN demonstrates remarkable video comprehension and reasoning abilities on tasks that are unprecedented by other av-LLMs. Our training code and model checkpoints are available at \url{https://github.com/bytedance/SALMONN/}.

Audio-visual large language models (LLM) have drawn significant attention, yet the fine-grained combination of both input streams is rather under-explored, which is challenging but necessary for LLMs to understand general video inputs. To this end, a fine-grained audio-visual joint representation (FAVOR) learning framework for multimodal LLMs is proposed in this paper, which extends a text-based LLM to simultaneously perceive speech and audio events in the audio input stream and images or videos in the visual input stream, at the frame level. To fuse the audio and visual feature streams into joint representations and to align the joint space with the LLM input embedding space, we propose a causal Q-Former structure with a causal attention module to enhance the capture of causal relations of the audio-visual frames across time. An audio-visual evaluation benchmark (AVEB) is also proposed which comprises six representative single-modal tasks with five cross-modal tasks reflecting audio-visual co-reasoning abilities. While achieving competitive single-modal performance on audio, speech and image tasks in AVEB, FAVOR achieved over 20% accuracy improvements on the video question-answering task when fine-grained information or temporal causal reasoning is required. FAVOR, in addition, demonstrated remarkable video comprehension and reasoning abilities on tasks that are unprecedented by other multimodal LLMs. An interactive demo of FAVOR is available at https://github.com/BriansIDP/AudioVisualLLM.git, and the training code and model checkpoints will be released soon.

Autoregressive video generation has emerged as a powerful paradigm for World Action Models (WAMs). However, existing approaches suffer from slow training convergence and limited converged accuracy, particularly at high frame rates, as the training supervision is confined to the current chunk without explicit signals about future dynamics; they also suffer from slow inference due to iterative video denoising. In this paper, we present Next Forcing, a multi-chunk prediction (MCP) framework for causal world modeling that enables faster training, higher accuracy, and accelerated inference. Inspired by multi-token prediction in large language models, Next Forcing introduces an MCP training objective that augments the main model with lightweight auxiliary MCP modules to simultaneously denoise video chunks at multiple future temporal horizons (next^1, next^2, next^3 chunks). These MCP modules form a causal chain across prediction depths, where intermediate features fused from multiple layers of the main model are leveraged to predict future dynamics, allowing near-future predictions to inform farther-future ones and providing dense multi-scale temporal supervision back to the main model. During training, the MCP modules significantly accelerate convergence and improve converged accuracy, especially at high frame rates: at 50 fps, Next Forcing achieves a 93.1% relative improvement over LingBot-VA at 5k training steps and 2.3x faster convergence, and establishes new state-of-the-art results on the RoboTwin benchmark (94.1/93.5% on Clean/Random). At inference, the MCP modules can be retained to predict the next video chunk in parallel with the current one, achieving 2x inference acceleration. Next Forcing also demonstrates significant improvements on PhyWorld, a benchmark evaluating adherence to physical laws in video generation, and over 50% FVD reduction on general video pretraining.

The origins of the colors of Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) represent a crucial unresolved question, central to understanding the history of our Solar System. Recent observational surveys have revealed correlations between the eccentricity and inclination of TNOs and their colors. This has rekindled the long-standing debate on whether these colors reflect the conditions of TNO formation or their subsequent collisional evolution. In this study, we address this question with 98.7% certainty, using a model-agnostic, data-driven approach based on causal graphs. First, as a sanity check, we demonstrate how our model can replicate the currently accepted paradigms of TNOs' dynamical history, blindly and without any orbital modeling or physics-based assumptions. In fact, our causal model (with no knowledge of the existence of Neptune) predicts the existence of an unknown perturbing body, i.e., Neptune. We then show how this model predicts, with high certainty, that the color of TNOs is the root cause of their inclination distribution, rather than the other way around. This strongly suggests that the colors of TNOs reflect an underlying dynamical property, most likely their formation location. Moreover, our causal model excludes formation scenarios that invoke substantial color modification by subsequent irradiation. We therefore conclude that the colors of TNOs are predominantly primordial.

Many benchmarks for automated causal inference evaluate a system's performance based on a single numerical output, such as an Average Treatment Effect (ATE). This approach conflates two distinct steps in causal analysis: identification-formulating a valid research design under stated assumptions-and estimation-implementing that design numerically on finite data. We introduce CausalReasoningBenchmark, a benchmark of 173 queries across 138 real-world datasets, curated from 85 peer-reviewed research papers and four widely-used causal-inference textbooks. For each query a system must produce (i) a structured identification specification that names the strategy, the treatment, outcome, and control variables, and all design-specific elements, and (ii) a point estimate with a standard error. By scoring these two components separately, our benchmark enables granular diagnosis: it distinguishes failures in causal reasoning from errors in numerical execution. Baseline results with a state-of-the-art LLM show that, while the model correctly identifies the high-level strategy in 84 % of cases, full identification-specification correctness drops to only 30 %, revealing that the bottleneck lies in the nuanced details of research design rather than in computation. CausalReasoningBenchmark is publicly available on Hugging Face and is designed to foster the development of more robust automated causal-inference systems.

As large language models (LLMs) scale up, accuracy improves, but the autoregressive (AR) nature of decoding increases latency since each token requires a serial forward pass. Speculative decoding addresses this by employing a fast drafter to propose multi-token drafts, which are then verified in parallel by the target model. However, many deployments still rely on AR drafters, where sequential passes limit wall-clock gains. We revisit the drafting stage and present DiffuSpec, a training-free drop-in framework that uses a pretrained diffusion language model (DLM) to produce multi-token drafts in a single forward pass, while remaining compatible with standard AR verifiers. Because DLM drafts are generated under bidirectional conditioning, parallel per-position candidates form a token lattice in which the locally highest-probability token at each position need not form a causal left-to-right path. Moreover, DLM drafting requires pre-specifying a draft length, inducing a speed-quality trade-off. To address these challenges, we introduce two practical components: (i) a causal-consistency path search (CPS) over this lattice that extracts a left-to-right path aligned with AR verification; and (ii) an adaptive draft-length (ADL) controller that adjusts next proposal size based on recent acceptance feedback and realized generated length. Across benchmarks, DiffuSpec yields up to 3x wall-clock speedup, establishing diffusion-based drafting as a robust alternative to autoregressive drafters for speculative decoding.

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it correlates with accuracy. Confidence is measured (i) qualitatively in terms of persistence in keeping their answer when prompted to reconsider, and (ii) quantitatively in terms of self-reported confidence score. We investigate the performance of three LLMs -- GPT4o, GPT4-turbo and Mistral -- on two benchmark sets of questions on causal judgement and formal fallacies and a set of probability and statistical puzzles and paradoxes. Although the LLMs show significantly better performance than random guessing, there is a wide variability in their tendency to change their initial answers. There is a positive correlation between qualitative confidence and accuracy, but the overall accuracy for the second answer is often worse than for the first answer. There is a strong tendency to overstate the self-reported confidence score. Confidence is only partially explained by the underlying token-level probability. The material effects of prompting on qualitative confidence and the strong tendency for overconfidence indicate that current LLMs do not have any internally coherent sense of confidence.

LLM-as-judge evaluation has become the de facto standard for scaling model assessment, but the practice is statistically unsound: uncalibrated scores can invert preferences, naive confidence intervals on uncalibrated scores achieve near-0% coverage, and importance-weighted estimators collapse under limited overlap despite high effective sample size (ESS). We introduce Causal Judge Evaluation (CJE), a framework that fixes all three failures. On n=4,961 Chatbot Arena prompts (after filtering from 5k), CJE achieves 99% pairwise ranking accuracy at full sample size (94% averaged across configurations), matching oracle quality, at 14x lower cost (for ranking 5 policies) by calibrating a 16x cheaper judge on just 5% oracle labels (~250 labels). CJE combines three components: (i) AutoCal-R, reward calibration via mean-preserving isotonic regression; (ii) SIMCal-W, weight stabilization via stacking of S-monotone candidates; and (iii) Oracle-Uncertainty Aware (OUA) inference that propagates calibration uncertainty into confidence intervals. We formalize the Coverage-Limited Efficiency (CLE) diagnostic, which explains why IPS-style estimators fail even when ESS exceeds 90%: the logger rarely visits regions where target policies concentrate. Key findings: SNIPS inverts rankings even with reward calibration (38% pairwise, negative Kendall's tau) due to weight instability; calibrated IPS remains near-random (47%) despite weight stabilization, consistent with CLE; OUA improves coverage from near-0% to ~86% (Direct) and ~96% (stacked-DR), where naive intervals severely under-cover.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown state-of-the-art performance in a variety of tasks, including arithmetic and reasoning; however, to gauge the intellectual capabilities of LLMs, causal reasoning has become a reliable proxy for validating a general understanding of the mechanics and intricacies of the world similar to humans. Previous works in natural language processing (NLP) have either focused on open-ended causal reasoning via causal commonsense reasoning (CCR) or framed a symbolic representation-based question answering for theoretically backed-up analysis via a causal inference engine. The former adds an advantage of real-world grounding but lacks theoretically backed-up analysis/validation, whereas the latter is far from real-world grounding. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing the COLD (Causal reasOning in cLosed Daily activities) framework, which is built upon human understanding of daily real-world activities to reason about the causal nature of events. We show that the proposed framework facilitates the creation of enormous causal queries (~ 9 million) and comes close to the mini-turing test, simulating causal reasoning to evaluate the understanding of a daily real-world task. We evaluate multiple LLMs on the created causal queries and find that causal reasoning is challenging even for activities trivial to humans. We further explore (the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs) using the backdoor criterion to determine the causal strength between events.

In Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO), an agent intervenes on an unknown structural causal model to maximize a downstream reward variable. In this paper, we consider the generalization where other agents or external events also intervene on the system, which is key for enabling adaptiveness to non-stationarities such as weather changes, market forces, or adversaries. We formalize this generalization of CBO as Adversarial Causal Bayesian Optimization (ACBO) and introduce the first algorithm for ACBO with bounded regret: Causal Bayesian Optimization with Multiplicative Weights (CBO-MW). Our approach combines a classical online learning strategy with causal modeling of the rewards. To achieve this, it computes optimistic counterfactual reward estimates by propagating uncertainty through the causal graph. We derive regret bounds for CBO-MW that naturally depend on graph-related quantities. We further propose a scalable implementation for the case of combinatorial interventions and submodular rewards. Empirically, CBO-MW outperforms non-causal and non-adversarial Bayesian optimization methods on synthetic environments and environments based on real-word data. Our experiments include a realistic demonstration of how CBO-MW can be used to learn users' demand patterns in a shared mobility system and reposition vehicles in strategic areas.

A faithful and interpretable explanation of an AI model's behavior and internal structure is a high-level explanation that is human-intelligible but also consistent with the known, but often opaque low-level causal details of the model. We argue that the theory of causal abstraction provides the mathematical foundations for the desired kinds of model explanations. In causal abstraction analysis, we use interventions on model-internal states to rigorously assess whether an interpretable high-level causal model is a faithful description of an AI model. Our contributions in this area are: (1) We generalize causal abstraction to cyclic causal structures and typed high-level variables. (2) We show how multi-source interchange interventions can be used to conduct causal abstraction analyses. (3) We define a notion of approximate causal abstraction that allows us to assess the degree to which a high-level causal model is a causal abstraction of a lower-level one. (4) We prove constructive causal abstraction can be decomposed into three operations we refer to as marginalization, variable-merge, and value-merge. (5) We formalize the XAI methods of LIME, causal effect estimation, causal mediation analysis, iterated nullspace projection, and circuit-based explanations as special cases of causal abstraction analysis.

In Large Language Model (LLM) training, data mixing plays a pivotal role in determining model performance. Recent methods optimize mixture weights via proxy models, but they rely on the assumption of static data distributions. As a result, when the underlying data pool shifts, these methods require costly retraining from scratch. This limitation restricts their ability to scale seamlessly from small settings to larger data pools and model sizes. In this paper, we propose CausalMix to address this limitation by casting data mixture optimization as a causal inference problem. We formulate the statistical features of the data pool as covariates and the domain mixture as the treatment. After fitting a causal model on 512 runs of Qwen2.5-0.5B to estimate the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE), we extrapolate the optimal mixture for an 800K data pool and apply it to train a 7B model. Furthermore, we successfully generalize the framework to long chain-of-thought data on Qwen3-4B-Base. By leveraging causal modeling to isolate confounding biases, CausalMix dynamically infers state-dependent optimal data mixtures. Extensive experiments show that the mixture guided by CausalMix consistently improves performance across multiple downstream tasks, outperforming RegMix and other baselines. In addition, we use the CATE Interpreter to provide visual analysis of the learned mixing strategy. Overall, CausalMix offers a causal and interpretable framework for optimizing LLM data mixtures.

Current end-to-end autonomous driving systems are fundamentally limited by a mismatch between temporal causal reasoning and global trajectory consistency. Autoregressive (AR) models capture interaction-aware temporal dependencies via causal factorization, but their step-wise decoding leads to error accumulation and suboptimal global structure. In contrast, diffusion models optimize trajectories globally but lack explicit causal constraints, making them unreliable in interactive and safety-critical scenarios. This dichotomy reveals a deeper issue: existing methods treat causal modeling and global optimization as separate paradigms, without a principled way to unify them within a single trajectory distribution. To address this, we propose ChainFlow-VLA, which unifies causal generation and global refinement within a unified probabilistic framework. We formulate planning as a mixture over AR-induced modes and learn Vision-Language Model (VLM)-conditioned residual distributions over these modes. An autoregressive generator (Chain) produces a discrete set of causal trajectory modes, followed by a diffusion-based refiner (Flow) that leverages VLM hidden states as semantic priors to perform mode-conditioned correction in residual space while preserving causal structure. This straightforward conditioning seamlessly injects high-level scene understanding into fine-grained trajectory adjustments. Experiments demonstrate that ChainFlow-VLA achieves robust planning in ambiguous and long-tail scenarios, achieving a state-of-the-art score of 94.85 on the NAVSIM v1 leaderboard, matching human-level performance (94.8). Code will be available at https://github.com/AFARI-Research/ChainFlow-VLA.

The origins of the colours of Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) represent a crucial unresolved question, central to understanding the history of our Solar System. Recent observational surveys revealed correlations between the eccentricity and inclination of TNOs, and their colours. This rekindled the long-standing debate on whether these colours reflect the conditions of TNO formation or their subsequent evolution. We address this question using a model-agnostic, data-driven approach that unanimously converges to a common causal graph from the analysis of two different datasets, each from two different conditional independence test methods. For evaluation, we demonstrate how our model is consistent with the currently-accepted paradigms of TNOs' dynamical histories, without involving any orbital modelling or physics-based assumptions. Our causal model (with no knowledge of the existence of Neptune) predicts the need for an unknown confounding variable, consistent with Neptune's effects. The model predicts that the colour of TNOs is the root cause of their inclination distribution, rather than the other way around. This strongly suggests that the colours of TNOs reflect an underlying dynamical property, most likely their formation location. Our model excludes formation scenarios that invoke substantial colour modification by subsequent evolution. We conclude that the colours of TNOs are predominantly primordial.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) based on large language models often falters on narrative documents with inherent temporal structures. Standard unstructured RAG methods rely solely on embedding-similarity matching and lack any general mechanism to encode or exploit chronological information, while knowledge graph RAG (KG-RAG) frameworks collapse every mention of an entity into a single node, erasing the evolving context that drives many queries. To formalize this challenge and draw the community's attention, we construct ChronoQA, a robust and discriminative QA benchmark that measures temporal, causal, and character consistency understanding in narrative documents (e.g., novels) under the RAG setting. We then introduce Entity-Event RAG (E^2RAG), a dual-graph framework that keeps separate entity and event subgraphs linked by a bipartite mapping, thereby preserving the temporal and causal facets needed for fine-grained reasoning. Across ChronoQA, our approach outperforms state-of-the-art unstructured and KG-based RAG baselines, with notable gains on causal and character consistency queries. E^2RAG therefore offers a practical path to more context-aware retrieval for tasks that require precise answers grounded in chronological information.

While interpretability research has shed light on some internal algorithms utilized by transformer-based LLMs, reasoning in natural language, with its deep contextuality and ambiguity, defies easy categorization. As a result, formulating clear and motivating questions for circuit analysis that rely on well-defined in-domain and out-of-domain examples required for causal interventions is challenging. Although significant work has investigated circuits for specific tasks, such as indirect object identification (IOI), deciphering natural language reasoning through circuits remains difficult due to its inherent complexity. In this work, we take initial steps to characterize causal reasoning in LLMs by analyzing clear-cut cause-and-effect sentences like "I opened an umbrella because it started raining," where causal interventions may be possible through carefully crafted scenarios using GPT-2 small. Our findings indicate that causal syntax is localized within the first 2-3 layers, while certain heads in later layers exhibit heightened sensitivity to nonsensical variations of causal sentences. This suggests that models may infer reasoning by (1) detecting syntactic cues and (2) isolating distinct heads in the final layers that focus on semantic relationships.

This work proposes a frame-wise online/streaming end-to-end neural diarization (EEND) method, which detects speaker activities in a frame-in-frame-out fashion. The proposed model mainly consists of a causal embedding encoder and an online attractor decoder. Speakers are modeled in the self-attention-based decoder along both the time and speaker dimensions, and frame-wise speaker attractors are automatically generated and updated for new speakers and existing speakers, respectively. Retention mechanism is employed and especially adapted for long-form diarization with a linear temporal complexity. A multi-step progressive training strategy is proposed for gradually learning from easy tasks to hard tasks in terms of the number of speakers and audio length. Finally, the proposed model (referred to as long-form streaming EEND, LS-EEND) is able to perform streaming diarization for a high (up to 8) and flexible number speakers and very long (say one hour) audio recordings. Experiments on various simulated and real-world datasets show that: 1) when not using oracle speech activity information, the proposed model achieves new state-of-the-art online diarization error rate on all datasets, including CALLHOME (12.11%), DIHARD II (27.58%), DIHARD III (19.61%), and AMI (20.76%); 2) Due to the frame-in-frame-out processing fashion and the linear temporal complexity, the proposed model achieves several times lower real-time-factor than comparison online diarization models.

Causal discovery with latent confounders is an important but challenging task in many scientific areas. Despite the success of some overcomplete independent component analysis (OICA) based methods in certain domains, they are computationally expensive and can easily get stuck into local optima. We notice that interestingly, by making use of higher-order cumulants, there exists a closed-form solution to OICA in specific cases, e.g., when the mixing procedure follows the One-Latent-Component structure. In light of the power of the closed-form solution to OICA corresponding to the One-Latent-Component structure, we formulate a way to estimate the mixing matrix using the higher-order cumulants, and further propose the testable One-Latent-Component condition to identify the latent variables and determine causal orders. By iteratively removing the share identified latent components, we successfully extend the results on the One-Latent-Component structure to the Multi-Latent-Component structure and finally provide a practical and asymptotically correct algorithm to learn the causal structure with latent variables. Experimental results illustrate the asymptotic correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Human understanding of video dynamics is typically grounded in a structured mental representation of entities, actions, and temporal relations, rather than relying solely on immediate deductive reasoning. In contrast, existing Video-LLMs largely depend on unstructured video reasoning, where critical visual evidence is embedded in verbose textual descriptions and temporal causality is often weakly modeled. This leads to inefficient processes and fragile causal inference. To bridge this cognitive gap, we propose constructing a compact representation of salient events and their causal relationships, which we name Structured Event Facts, prior to the reasoning stage. This structured prior serves as an explicit constraint to promote concise and causally grounded reasoning, while also making intermediate evidence easier to verify. To effectively train models on such structured facts, we introduce CausalFact-60K and a four-stage training pipeline comprising facts alignment, format warm-start, thinking warm-start, and reinforcement learning-based post-training. During RL stage, we find that this framework introduces competing objectives, as structural completeness and causal fidelity must be balanced against reasoning length, making it difficult to optimize. We address this challenge by formulating the optimization as a Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning (MORL) problem and explicitly optimizing toward the Pareto-Frontier to balance these trade-offs. As a result, we introduce Factum-4B, which yields more reliable reasoning and delivers stronger performance on challenging video understanding tasks requiring fine-grained temporal inference.

Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise in biomedicine but lack true causal understanding, relying instead on correlations. This paper envisions causal LLM agents that integrate multimodal data (text, images, genomics, etc.) and perform intervention-based reasoning to infer cause-and-effect. Addressing this requires overcoming key challenges: designing safe, controllable agentic frameworks; developing rigorous benchmarks for causal evaluation; integrating heterogeneous data sources; and synergistically combining LLMs with structured knowledge (KGs) and formal causal inference tools. Such agents could unlock transformative opportunities, including accelerating drug discovery through automated hypothesis generation and simulation, enabling personalized medicine through patient-specific causal models. This research agenda aims to foster interdisciplinary efforts, bridging causal concepts and foundation models to develop reliable AI partners for biomedical progress.

We formalize constraint-based structure learning of the "true" causal graph from observed data when unobserved variables are also existent. We provide conditions for a "natural" family of constraint-based structure-learning algorithms that output graphs that are Markov equivalent to the causal graph. Under the faithfulness assumption, this natural family contains all exact structure-learning algorithms. We also provide a set of assumptions, under which any natural structure-learning algorithm outputs Markov equivalent graphs to the causal graph. These assumptions can be thought of as a relaxation of faithfulness, and most of them can be directly tested from (the underlying distribution) of the data, particularly when one focuses on structural causal models. We specialize the definitions and results for structural causal models.

Bytes form the basis of the digital world and thus are a promising building block for multimodal foundation models. Recently, Byte Language Models (BLMs) have emerged to overcome tokenization, yet the excessive length of bytestreams requires new architectural paradigms. Therefore, we present the Multiscale Byte Language Model (MBLM), a model-agnostic hierarchical decoder stack that allows training with context windows of 5M bytes on single GPU in full model precision. We thoroughly examine MBLM's performance with Transformer and Mamba blocks on both unimodal and multimodal tasks. Our experiments demonstrate that hybrid architectures are efficient in handling extremely long byte sequences during training while achieving near-linear generational efficiency. To the best of our knowledge, we present the first evaluation of BLMs on visual Q\&A tasks and find that, despite serializing images and the absence of an encoder, a MBLM with pure next token prediction can match custom CNN-LSTM architectures with designated classification heads. We show that MBLMs exhibit strong adaptability in integrating diverse data representations, including pixel and image filestream bytes, underlining their potential toward omnimodal foundation models. Source code is publicly available at: https://github.com/ai4sd/multiscale-byte-lm

Estimating the causal effects of interventions is crucial to policy and decision-making, yet outcome data are often missing or subject to non-standard measurement error. While ground-truth outcomes can sometimes be obtained through costly data annotation or follow-up, budget constraints typically allow only a fraction of the dataset to be labeled. We address this challenge by optimizing which data points should be sampled for outcome information in order to improve efficiency in average treatment effect estimation with missing outcomes. We derive a closed-form solution for the optimal batch sampling probability by minimizing the asymptotic variance of a doubly robust estimator for causal inference with missing outcomes. Motivated by our street outreach partners, we extend the framework to costly annotations of unstructured data, such as text or images in healthcare and social services. Across simulated and real-world datasets, including one of outreach interventions in homelessness services, our approach achieves substantially lower mean-squared error and recovers the AIPW estimate with fewer labels than existing baselines. In practice, we show that our method can match confidence intervals obtained with 361 random samples using only 90 optimized samples - saving 75% of the labeling budget.

World models require robust relational understanding to support prediction, reasoning, and control. While object-centric representations provide a useful abstraction, they are not sufficient to capture interaction-dependent dynamics. We therefore propose C-JEPA, a simple and flexible object-centric world model that extends masked joint embedding prediction from image patches to object-centric representations. By applying object-level masking that requires an object's state to be inferred from other objects, C-JEPA induces latent interventions with counterfactual-like effects and prevents shortcut solutions, making interaction reasoning essential. Empirically, C-JEPA leads to consistent gains in visual question answering, with an absolute improvement of about 20\% in counterfactual reasoning compared to the same architecture without object-level masking. On agent control tasks, C-JEPA enables substantially more efficient planning by using only 1\% of the total latent input features required by patch-based world models, while achieving comparable performance. Finally, we provide a formal analysis demonstrating that object-level masking induces a causal inductive bias via latent interventions. Our code is available at https://github.com/galilai-group/cjepa.

Temporal causal representation learning methods assume that causal mechanisms switch instantaneously between discrete domains, yet real-world systems often exhibit continuous mechanism transitions. For example, a vehicle's dynamics evolve gradually through a turning maneuver, and human gait shifts smoothly from walking to running. We formalize this setting by modeling transitional mechanisms as convex combinations of finitely many atomic mechanisms, governed by time-varying mixing coefficients. Our theoretical contributions establish that both the latent causal variables and the continuous mixing trajectory are jointly identifiable. We further propose TRACE, a Mixture-of-Experts framework where each expert learns one atomic mechanism during training, enabling recovery of mechanism trajectories at test time. This formulation generalizes to intermediate mechanism states never observed during training. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that TRACE recovers mixing trajectories with up to 0.99 correlation, substantially outperforming discrete-switching baselines.

In this paper, we introduce a framework for contextual distributionally robust optimization (DRO) that considers the causal and continuous structure of the underlying distribution by developing interpretable and tractable decision rules that prescribe decisions using covariates. We first introduce the causal Sinkhorn discrepancy (CSD), an entropy-regularized causal Wasserstein distance that encourages continuous transport plans while preserving the causal consistency. We then formulate a contextual DRO model with a CSD-based ambiguity set, termed Causal Sinkhorn DRO (Causal-SDRO), and derive its strong dual reformulation where the worst-case distribution is characterized as a mixture of Gibbs distributions. To solve the corresponding infinite-dimensional policy optimization, we propose the Soft Regression Forest (SRF) decision rule, which approximates optimal policies within arbitrary measurable function spaces. The SRF preserves the interpretability of classical decision trees while being fully parametric, differentiable, and Lipschitz smooth, enabling intrinsic interpretation from both global and local perspectives. To solve the Causal-SDRO with parametric decision rules, we develop an efficient stochastic compositional gradient algorithm that converges to an varepsilon-stationary point at a rate of O(varepsilon^{-4}), matching the convergence rate of standard stochastic gradient descent. Finally, we validate our method through numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating its superior performance and interpretability.

Understanding and reasoning about the physical world is the foundation of intelligent behavior, yet state-of-the-art vision-language models (VLMs) still fail at causal physical reasoning, often producing plausible but incorrect answers. To address this gap, we introduce CausalPhys, a benchmark of over 3,000 carefully curated video- and image-based questions spanning four domains: Perception, Anticipation, Intervention, and Goal Orientation. Each question is paired with an expert-annotated causal graph capturing object-attribute-event dependencies, enabling interpretable and fine-grained evaluation of causal understanding. Building on this, we formulate a causal-graph-grounded metric that quantitatively measures how well a model's chain-of-thought reasoning aligns with the correct causal relations, moving beyond answer-only accuracy and enabling systematic diagnosis of VLMs' causal reasoning failures. Using this metric, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of leading VLMs, revealing systematic gaps in capturing causal dependencies and underscoring the need for causality-aware learning. To address these limitations, we further propose Causal Rationale-informed Fine-Tuning (CRFT), which explicitly aligns VLM reasoning with causal structures. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CRFT substantially enhances both reasoning accuracy and interpretability across multiple model backbones. By unifying dataset curation, causal evaluation, and causality-informed learning, CausalPhys establishes a strong foundation for advancing modern VLMs toward causally grounded physical reasoning.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable ability in various language tasks, especially with their emergent in-context learning capability. Extending LLMs to incorporate visual inputs, large vision-language models (LVLMs) have shown impressive performance in tasks such as recognition and visual question answering (VQA). Despite increasing interest in the utility of LLMs in causal reasoning tasks such as causal discovery and counterfactual reasoning, there has been relatively little work showcasing the abilities of LVLMs on visual causal reasoning tasks. We take this opportunity to formally introduce a comprehensive causal reasoning benchmark for multi-modal in-context learning from LVLMs. Our CausalVLBench encompasses three representative tasks: causal structure inference, intervention target prediction, and counterfactual prediction. We evaluate the ability of state-of-the-art open-source LVLMs on our causal reasoning tasks across three causal representation learning datasets and demonstrate their fundamental strengths and weaknesses. We hope that our benchmark elucidates the drawbacks of existing vision-language models and motivates new directions and paradigms in improving the visual causal reasoning abilities of LVLMs.

Estimating the causal effects of a spatially-varying intervention on a spatially-varying outcome may be subject to non-local confounding (NLC), a phenomenon that can bias estimates when the treatments and outcomes of a given unit are dictated in part by the covariates of other nearby units. In particular, NLC is a challenge for evaluating the effects of environmental policies and climate events on health-related outcomes such as air pollution exposure. This paper first formalizes NLC using the potential outcomes framework, providing a comparison with the related phenomenon of causal interference. Then, it proposes a broadly applicable framework, termed "weather2vec", that uses the theory of balancing scores to learn representations of non-local information into a scalar or vector defined for each observational unit, which is subsequently used to adjust for confounding in conjunction with causal inference methods. The framework is evaluated in a simulation study and two case studies on air pollution where the weather is an (inherently regional) known confounder.

Construction grammar posits that children acquire constructions (form-meaning pairings) from the statistics of their environment. Recent work supports this hypothesis by showing sensitivity to constructions in pretrained language models (PLMs), including one recent study (Rozner et al., 2025) demonstrating that constructions shape the PLM's output distribution. However, models under study have generally been trained on developmentally implausible amounts of data, casting doubt on their relevance to human language learning. Here we use Rozner et al.'s methods to evaluate constructional learning in models from the 2024 BabyLM challenge. Our results show that even when trained on developmentally plausible quantities of data, models represent diverse constructions, even hard cases that are superficially indistinguishable. We further find correlational evidence that constructional performance may be functionally relevant: models that better represent constructions perform better on the BabyLM benchmarks.

Epidemiologists often wish to estimate quantities that are easy to communicate and correspond to the results of realistic public health scenarios. Methods from causal inference can answer these questions. We adopt the language of potential outcomes under Rubin's original Bayesian framework and show that the parametric g-formula is easily amenable to a Bayesian approach. We show that the frequentist properties of the Bayesian g-formula suggest it improves the accuracy of estimates of causal effects in small samples or when data may be sparse. We demonstrate our approach to estimate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke on body mass index z-scores among children aged 4-9 years who were enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort in New York, USA. We give a general algorithm and supply SAS and Stan code that can be adopted to implement our computational approach in both time-fixed and longitudinal data.

Clinical case formulation organizes patient symptoms and psychosocial factors into causal models, often using the 5P framework. However, constructing such graphs from therapy transcripts is time consuming and varies across clinicians. We present InsightFlow, an LLM based approach that automatically generates 5P aligned causal graphs from patient-therapist dialogues. Using 46 psychotherapy intake transcripts annotated by clinical experts, we evaluate LLM generated graphs against human formulations using structural (NetSimile), semantic (embedding similarity), and expert rated clinical criteria. The generated graphs show structural similarity comparable to inter annotator agreement and high semantic alignment with human graphs. Expert evaluations rate the outputs as moderately complete, consistent, and clinically useful. While LLM graphs tend to form more interconnected structures compared to the chain like patterns of human graphs, overall complexity and content coverage are similar. These results suggest that LLMs can produce clinically meaningful case formulation graphs within the natural variability of expert practice. InsightFlow highlights the potential of automated causal modeling to augment clinical workflows, with future work needed to improve temporal reasoning and reduce redundancy.

Correlation does not imply causation, but patterns of statistical association between variables can be exploited to infer a causal structure (even with purely observational data) with the burgeoning field of causal discovery. As a purely observational science, astrophysics has much to gain by exploiting these new methods. The supermassive black hole (SMBH)--galaxy interaction has long been constrained by observed scaling relations, that is low-scatter correlations between variables such as SMBH mass and the central velocity dispersion of stars in a host galaxy's bulge. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and an up-to-date dataset, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and dynamically-measured SMBH masses. We apply a score-based Bayesian framework to compute the exact conditional probabilities of every causal structure that could possibly describe our galaxy sample. With the exact posterior distribution, we determine the most likely causal structures and notice a probable causal reversal when separating galaxies by morphology. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties (built from major mergers) tend to influence SMBH growth, while in spiral galaxies, SMBHs are seen to affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. Our findings support theoretical models of hierarchical assembly of galaxies and active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution. Our study suggests the potentiality for further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations, as well as any other observational science.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have become the state-of-the-art in high-quality image generation. However, DPMs have an arbitrary noisy latent space with no interpretable or controllable semantics. Although there has been significant research effort to improve image sample quality, there is little work on representation-controlled generation using diffusion models. Specifically, causal modeling and controllable counterfactual generation using DPMs is an underexplored area. In this work, we propose CausalDiffAE, a diffusion-based causal representation learning framework to enable counterfactual generation according to a specified causal model. Our key idea is to use an encoder to extract high-level semantically meaningful causal variables from high-dimensional data and model stochastic variation using reverse diffusion. We propose a causal encoding mechanism that maps high-dimensional data to causally related latent factors and parameterize the causal mechanisms among latent factors using neural networks. To enforce the disentanglement of causal variables, we formulate a variational objective and leverage auxiliary label information in a prior to regularize the latent space. We propose a DDIM-based counterfactual generation procedure subject to do-interventions. Finally, to address the limited label supervision scenario, we also study the application of CausalDiffAE when a part of the training data is unlabeled, which also enables granular control over the strength of interventions in generating counterfactuals during inference. We empirically show that CausalDiffAE learns a disentangled latent space and is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual images.

Heterogeneity and comorbidity are two interwoven challenges associated with various healthcare problems that greatly hampered research on developing effective treatment and understanding of the underlying neurobiological mechanism. Very few studies have been conducted to investigate heterogeneous causal effects (HCEs) in graphical contexts due to the lack of statistical methods. To characterize this heterogeneity, we first conceptualize heterogeneous causal graphs (HCGs) by generalizing the causal graphical model with confounder-based interactions and multiple mediators. Such confounders with an interaction with the treatment are known as moderators. This allows us to flexibly produce HCGs given different moderators and explicitly characterize HCEs from the treatment or potential mediators on the outcome. We establish the theoretical forms of HCEs and derive their properties at the individual level in both linear and nonlinear models. An interactive structural learning is developed to estimate the complex HCGs and HCEs with confidence intervals provided. Our method is empirically justified by extensive simulations and its practical usefulness is illustrated by exploring causality among psychiatric disorders for trauma survivors.

This paper proposes a Disentangled gEnerative cAusal Representation (DEAR) learning method under appropriate supervised information. Unlike existing disentanglement methods that enforce independence of the latent variables, we consider the general case where the underlying factors of interests can be causally related. We show that previous methods with independent priors fail to disentangle causally related factors even under supervision. Motivated by this finding, we propose a new disentangled learning method called DEAR that enables causal controllable generation and causal representation learning. The key ingredient of this new formulation is to use a structural causal model (SCM) as the prior distribution for a bidirectional generative model. The prior is then trained jointly with a generator and an encoder using a suitable GAN algorithm incorporated with supervised information on the ground-truth factors and their underlying causal structure. We provide theoretical justification on the identifiability and asymptotic convergence of the proposed method. We conduct extensive experiments on both synthesized and real data sets to demonstrate the effectiveness of DEAR in causal controllable generation, and the benefits of the learned representations for downstream tasks in terms of sample efficiency and distributional robustness.

Modern large language models (LLMs) are typically secured by auditing data, prompts, and refusal policies, while treating the forward pass as an implementation detail. We show that intermediate activations in decoder-only LLMs form a vulnerable attack surface for behavioral control. Building on recent findings on attention sinks and compression valleys, we identify a high-gain region in the residual stream where small, well-aligned perturbations are causally amplified along the autoregressive trajectory--a Causal Amplification Effect (CAE). We exploit this as an attack surface via Sensitivity-Scaled Steering (SSS), a progressive activation-level attack that combines beginning-of-sequence (BOS) anchoring with sensitivity-based reinforcement to focus a limited perturbation budget on the most vulnerable layers and tokens. We show that across multiple open-weight models and four behavioral axes, SSS induces large shifts in evil, hallucination, sycophancy, and sentiment while preserving high coherence and general capabilities, turning activation steering into a concrete security concern for white-box and supply-chain LLM deployments.

Proximal causal learning is a promising framework for identifying the causal effect under the existence of unmeasured confounders. Within this framework, the doubly robust (DR) estimator was derived and has shown its effectiveness in estimation, especially when the model assumption is violated. However, the current form of the DR estimator is restricted to binary treatments, while the treatment can be continuous in many real-world applications. The primary obstacle to continuous treatments resides in the delta function present in the original DR estimator, making it infeasible in causal effect estimation and introducing a heavy computational burden in nuisance function estimation. To address these challenges, we propose a kernel-based DR estimator that can well handle continuous treatments. Equipped with its smoothness, we show that its oracle form is a consistent approximation of the influence function. Further, we propose a new approach to efficiently solve the nuisance functions. We then provide a comprehensive convergence analysis in terms of the mean square error. We demonstrate the utility of our estimator on synthetic datasets and real-world applications.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capability in natural language tasks, yet debate persists on whether they truly comprehend deep structure (i.e., core semantics) or merely rely on surface structure (e.g., presentation format). Prior studies observe that LLMs' performance declines when intervening on surface structure, arguing their success relies on surface structure recognition. However, surface structure sensitivity does not prevent deep structure comprehension. Rigorously evaluating LLMs' capability requires analyzing both, yet deep structure is often overlooked. To this end, we assess LLMs' comprehension ability using causal mediation analysis, aiming to fully discover the capability of using both deep and surface structures. Specifically, we formulate the comprehension of deep structure as direct causal effect (DCE) and that of surface structure as indirect causal effect (ICE), respectively. To address the non-estimability of original DCE and ICE -- stemming from the infeasibility of isolating mutual influences of deep and surface structures, we develop the corresponding quantifiable surrogates, including approximated DCE (ADCE) and approximated ICE (AICE). We further apply the ADCE to evaluate a series of mainstream LLMs, showing that most of them exhibit deep structure comprehension ability, which grows along with the prediction accuracy. Comparing ADCE and AICE demonstrates closed-source LLMs rely more on deep structure, while open-source LLMs are more surface-sensitive, which decreases with model scale. Theoretically, ADCE is a bidirectional evaluation, which measures both the sufficiency and necessity of deep structure changes in causing output variations, thus offering a more comprehensive assessment than accuracy, a common evaluation in LLMs. Our work provides new insights into LLMs' deep structure comprehension and offers novel methods for LLMs evaluation.

Corruption studies, the primary tool for evaluating chain-of-thought (CoT) faithfulness, identify which chain positions are "computationally important" by measuring accuracy when steps are replaced with errors. We identify a systematic confound: for chains with explicit terminal answer statements, the dominant format in standard benchmarks, corruption studies detect where the answer text appears, not where computation occurs. A within-dataset format ablation provides the key evidence: on standard GSM8K chains ending with "the answer is X," removing only the answer statement, preserving all reasoning, collapses suffix sensitivity ~19x at 3B (N=300, p=0.022). Conflicting-answer experiments quantify the causal mechanism: at 7B, CC accuracy drops to near-zero (<=0.02) across five architecture families; the followed-wrong rate spans 0.63-1.00 at 3B-7B and attenuates at larger scales (0.300 at Phi-4-14B, ~0.01 at 32B). A within-stable 7B replication (9.3x attenuation, N=76, p=7.8e-3; Qwen3-8B N=299, p=0.004) provides converging evidence, and the pattern replicates on MATH (DeepSeek-R1-7B: 10.9x suffix-survival recovery). On chains without answer suffixes the same protocol identifies the prefix as load-bearing (Delta=-0.77, p<10^-12). Generation-time probes confirm a dissociation: the answer is not early-determined during generation (early commitment <5%), yet at consumption time model outputs systematically follow the explicit answer text. The format-determination effect persists through 14B (8.5x ratio, p=0.001) and converges toward zero at 32B. We propose a three-prerequisite protocol (question-only control, format characterization, all-position sweep) as a minimum standard for corruption-based faithfulness studies.

Transformers suffer from a high computational cost that grows with sequence length for self-attention, making inference in long streams prohibited by memory consumption. Constant-memory alternatives such as RNNs and SSMs compress history into states with fixed size and thus lose long-tail dependencies, while methods that memorize contexts into parameters, such as Test-Time Training (TTT), are prone to overfitting token-level projection and fail to preserve the causal effect of context in pretrained LLMs. We propose Absorber LLM, which formulates long-context retention as a self-supervised causal synchronization: after absorbing historical contexts into parameters, a contextless model should match the original model with full context on future generations. We optimize this objective by synchronizing internal behaviors of the updated model with the original one, ensuring context absorption and generalization. Experiments on long-context and streaming benchmarks show that Absorber LLM reduces inference memory and improves accuracy over prior parameter-as-memory baselines.

Energy markets exhibit complex causal relationships between weather patterns, generation technologies, and price formation, with regime changes occurring continuously rather than at discrete break points. Current approaches model electricity prices without explicit causal interpretation or counterfactual reasoning capabilities. We introduce Augmented Time Series Causal Models (ATSCM) for energy markets, extending counterfactual reasoning frameworks to multivariate temporal data with learned causal structure. Our approach models energy systems through interpretable factors (weather, generation mix, demand patterns), rich grid dynamics, and observable market variables. We integrate neural causal discovery to learn time-varying causal graphs without requiring ground truth DAGs. Applied to real-world electricity price data, ATSCM enables novel counterfactual queries such as "What would prices be under different renewable generation scenarios?".

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

In-context learning for tabular data sets strong predictive standards in observational settings; it however primarily relies on correlational structure, which becomes unreliable under distribution shift or intervention. While established methods to discover causal structure exist, they are often focused on structure identifiability and decoupled from the predictive architectures that could benefit from them. To bridge these perspectives, we study how to simultaneously infer and enforce causal structure in the form of topological variable orderings into tabular prediction. Unlike standard architectures, our model TabOrder uses causal order-constrained attention, basing predictions only on features that precede a target under a learned causal order. Similar to causal discovery methods, TabOrder learns the optimal variable ordering in an unsupervised manner through a likelihood-based objective. We justify this choice under standard functional model classes and also study how sample missingness, a common challenge in tabular data, interacts with causal direction identification. Empirically, we confirm that TabOrder recovers accurate variable orderings while addressing prediction and imputation tasks, as well as gives insight into real-world biological data under intervention.

Recent attempts to combine large language models (LLMs) with causal discovery ask models to infer pairwise directions, propose graph structures, or inject language-model outputs as priors and constraints. These approaches promise faster analysis, but they also obscure whether a causal evidence is supported by data and assumptions or by textual associations, prompt artifacts and hallucinated mechanisms. We argue for a different role for agents in causal discovery. Agents should inspect data, retrieve context, explain method assumptions and clarify graph outputs, but they should not supply edges, orientations, priors, constraints or causal conclusions. We propose the principle that agents assist the workflow, while causal claims remain grounded in data, explicit assumptions, formal algorithms, diagnostics and user or domain-expert decisions. We instantiate this principle in causal-learn+, an online platform that coordinates data analysis, preprocessing, method recommendation, expert-knowledge incorporation, formal discovery and interpretation around the algorithmic ecosystem of causal-learn. A case study on Big Five personality data illustrates agent-assisted pipeline of causal discovery without turning language-model unreliability into causal evidence. The platform is available at causallearn.com.

Unsupervised semantic segmentation aims to achieve high-quality semantic grouping without human-labeled annotations. With the advent of self-supervised pre-training, various frameworks utilize the pre-trained features to train prediction heads for unsupervised dense prediction. However, a significant challenge in this unsupervised setup is determining the appropriate level of clustering required for segmenting concepts. To address it, we propose a novel framework, CAusal Unsupervised Semantic sEgmentation (CAUSE), which leverages insights from causal inference. Specifically, we bridge intervention-oriented approach (i.e., frontdoor adjustment) to define suitable two-step tasks for unsupervised prediction. The first step involves constructing a concept clusterbook as a mediator, which represents possible concept prototypes at different levels of granularity in a discretized form. Then, the mediator establishes an explicit link to the subsequent concept-wise self-supervised learning for pixel-level grouping. Through extensive experiments and analyses on various datasets, we corroborate the effectiveness of CAUSE and achieve state-of-the-art performance in unsupervised semantic segmentation.

Causal discovery, the process of recovering underlying causal structures from observational data, is a fundamental pursuit across scientific disciplines. Over the past decades, numerous algorithms have been developed to tackle this challenge through workflows tailored to the specific causal mechanisms underlying each type of dataset, demonstrating effectiveness across a wide range of applications. However, as the volume and heterogeneity of real-world data continue to grow, this dataset-specific approach inevitably leads to a fragmented, test-driven paradigm that struggles to scale to the demands of modern scientific discovery. To address this, we formulate the Causal Discovery Foundation Model (CDFM) as a unified, general-purpose framework for zero-shot structural inference. To ensure reliable generalization across unknown domains, we first investigate the theoretical boundaries of causal identifiability, revealing the indispensable role of causal prior mechanisms in this process. Building on these insights, we formulate a principled variational framework that treats unknown causal mechanisms as latent variables and mathematically decomposes the intractable marginal likelihood into distinct, tractable learning modules. The variational decomposition provides a conceptual design principle for the architecture design of CDFM, while comprehensive causal knowledge guides the large-scale synthesis of our pretraining data. By pretraining on a massive, highly diverse space of synthetic structural causal models, CDFM successfully internalizes complex statistical asymmetries. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CDFM consistently outperforms traditional algorithms, driving a paradigm shift toward a general-purpose causal discovery foundation model.

Temporal reasoning involves understanding how systems evolve over time through input-driven state transitions. A key aspect is temporal causal reasoning, causally reasoning about what prior inputs were necessary in causing an observed outcome. While large language models (LLMs) perform well at forward simulation, predicting outputs from inputs, they struggle to identify the minimal causal inputs of outcomes. To study this distinction, we define two tasks: trace simulation (SIM), which requires models to simulate system execution, and minimal causal attribution (MIN), which identifies the minimal set of inputs necessary for a given outcome. We introduce TempoBench, the first formally verified benchmark for temporal causal reasoning, built from synthesized Mealy machines with controllable complexity and provably correct causal labels. Across frontier models, we observe that despite achieving up to 96\% accuracy on the SIM task, performance on the causal attribution MIN task drops below 25\%; models fail to reason about causal necessity. Over 94\% of causal errors involve overspecification, where models perform retrieval and list all possible inputs rather than reasoning about the minimal causal subset. Fine-tuning on TempoBench training corpus improves causal reasoning and generalizes better than math, code, or instruction training, with gains across standard reasoning benchmarks.

State-of-the-art whole-body pose estimators often lack robustness, producing anatomically implausible predictions in challenging scenes. We posit this failure stems from spurious correlations learned from visual context, a problem we formalize using a Structural Causal Model (SCM). The SCM identifies visual context as a confounder that creates a non-causal backdoor path, corrupting the model's reasoning. We introduce the Causal Intervention Graph Pose (CIGPose) framework to address this by approximating the true causal effect between visual evidence and pose. The core of CIGPose is a novel Causal Intervention Module: it first identifies confounded keypoint representations via predictive uncertainty and then replaces them with learned, context-invariant canonical embeddings. These deconfounded embeddings are processed by a hierarchical graph neural network that reasons over the human skeleton at both local and global semantic levels to enforce anatomical plausibility. Extensive experiments show CIGPose achieves a new state-of-the-art on COCO-WholeBody. Notably, our CIGPose-x model achieves 67.0\% AP, surpassing prior methods that rely on extra training data. With the additional UBody dataset, CIGPose-x is further boosted to 67.5\% AP, demonstrating superior robustness and data efficiency. The codes and models are publicly available at https://github.com/53mins/CIGPose.

As economics scales, a key bottleneck is representing what papers claim in a comparable, aggregable form. We introduce evidence-annotated claim graphs that map each paper into a directed network of standardized economic concepts (nodes) and stated relationships (edges), with each edge labeled by evidentiary basis, including whether it is supported by causal inference designs or by non-causal evidence. Using a structured multi-stage AI workflow, we construct claim graphs for 44,852 economics papers from 1980-2023. The share of causal edges rises from 7.7% in 1990 to 31.7% in 2020. Measures of causal narrative structure and causal novelty are positively associated with top-five publication and long-run citations, whereas non-causal counterparts are weakly related or negative.

When people reason about cause and effect, they often consider many competing "what if" scenarios before deciding which explanation fits best. Analogously, advanced language models capable of causal inference can consider multiple interventions and counterfactuals to judge the validity of causal claims. Crucially, this type of reasoning is less like a single calculation and more like an internal dialogue between alternative hypotheses. In this paper, we make this dialogue explicit through a dual-agent debate framework where one model provides a structured causal inference, and the other critically examines this reasoning for logical flaws. When disagreements arise, agents attempt to persuade each other, challenging each other's logic and revising their conclusions until they converge on a mutually agreed answer. To take advantage of this deliberative process, we specifically use reasoning language models, whose strengths in both causal inference and adversarial debate remain under-explored relative to standard large language models. We evaluate our approach on the CLadder dataset, a benchmark linking natural language questions to formally defined causal graphs across all three rungs of Pearl's ladder of causation. With Qwen3 and DeepSeek-R1 as debater agents, we demonstrate that multi-agent debate improves DeepSeek-R1's overall accuracy in causal inference from 78.03% to 87.45%, with the counterfactual category specifically improving from 67.94% to 80.04% accuracy. Similarly, Qwen3's overall accuracy improves from 84.16% to 89.41%, and counterfactual questions from 71.53% to 80.35%, showing that strong models can still benefit greatly from debate with weaker agents. Our results highlight the potential of reasoning models as building blocks for multi-agent systems in causal inference, and demonstrate the importance of diverse perspectives in causal problem-solving.

We introduce the concept of the self-referencing causal cycle (abbreviated RECALL) - a mechanism that enables large language models (LLMs) to bypass the limitations of unidirectional causality, which underlies a phenomenon known as the reversal curse. When an LLM is prompted with sequential data, it often fails to recall preceding context. For example, when we ask an LLM to recall the line preceding "O say does that star-spangled banner yet wave" in the U.S. National Anthem, it often fails to correctly return "Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there" - this is due to the reversal curse. It occurs because language models such as ChatGPT and Llama generate text based on preceding tokens, requiring facts to be learned and reproduced in a consistent token order. While the reversal curse is often viewed as a limitation, we offer evidence of an alternative view: it is not always an obstacle in practice. We find that RECALL is driven by what we designate as cycle tokens - sequences that connect different parts of the training data, enabling recall of preceding tokens from succeeding ones. Through rigorous probabilistic formalization and controlled experiments, we demonstrate how the cycles they induce influence a model's ability to reproduce information. To facilitate reproducibility, we provide our code and experimental details at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/remember-B0B8/.

We introduce CaLMFlow (Causal Language Models for Flow Matching), a novel framework that casts flow matching as a Volterra integral equation (VIE), leveraging the power of large language models (LLMs) for continuous data generation. CaLMFlow enables the direct application of LLMs to learn complex flows by formulating flow matching as a sequence modeling task, bridging discrete language modeling and continuous generative modeling. Our method implements tokenization across space and time, thereby solving a VIE over these domains. This approach enables efficient handling of high-dimensional data and outperforms ODE solver-dependent methods like conditional flow matching (CFM). We demonstrate CaLMFlow's effectiveness on synthetic and real-world data, including single-cell perturbation response prediction, showcasing its ability to incorporate textual context and generalize to unseen conditions. Our results highlight LLM-driven flow matching as a promising paradigm in generative modeling, offering improved scalability, flexibility, and context-awareness.

Recent advances in efficient sequence modeling have led to attention-free layers, such as Mamba, RWKV, and various gated RNNs, all featuring sub-quadratic complexity in sequence length and excellent scaling properties, enabling the construction of a new type of foundation models. In this paper, we present a unified view of these models, formulating such layers as implicit causal self-attention layers. The formulation includes most of their sub-components and is not limited to a specific part of the architecture. The framework compares the underlying mechanisms on similar grounds for different layers and provides a direct means for applying explainability methods. Our experiments show that our attention matrices and attribution method outperform an alternative and a more limited formulation that was recently proposed for Mamba. For the other architectures for which our method is the first to provide such a view, our method is effective and competitive in the relevant metrics compared to the results obtained by state-of-the-art transformer explainability methods. Our code is publicly available.

Conventional causal discovery methods rely on centralized data, which is inconsistent with the decentralized nature of data in many real-world situations. This discrepancy has motivated the development of federated causal discovery (FCD) approaches. However, existing FCD methods may be limited by their potentially restrictive assumptions of identifiable functional causal models or homogeneous data distributions, narrowing their applicability in diverse scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel FCD method attempting to accommodate arbitrary causal models and heterogeneous data. We first utilize a surrogate variable corresponding to the client index to account for the data heterogeneity across different clients. We then develop a federated conditional independence test (FCIT) for causal skeleton discovery and establish a federated independent change principle (FICP) to determine causal directions. These approaches involve constructing summary statistics as a proxy of the raw data to protect data privacy. Owing to the nonparametric properties, FCIT and FICP make no assumption about particular functional forms, thereby facilitating the handling of arbitrary causal models. We conduct extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets to show the efficacy of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/lokali/FedCDH.git.

An essential and challenging problem in causal inference is causal effect estimation from observational data. The problem becomes more difficult with the presence of unobserved confounding variables. The front-door adjustment is a practical approach for dealing with unobserved confounding variables. However, the restriction for the standard front-door adjustment is difficult to satisfy in practice. In this paper, we relax some of the restrictions by proposing the concept of conditional front-door (CFD) adjustment and develop the theorem that guarantees the causal effect identifiability of CFD adjustment. Furthermore, as it is often impossible for a CFD variable to be given in practice, it is desirable to learn it from data. By leveraging the ability of deep generative models, we propose CFDiVAE to learn the representation of the CFD adjustment variable directly from data with the identifiable Variational AutoEncoder and formally prove the model identifiability. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of CFDiVAE and its superiority over existing methods. The experiments also show that the performance of CFDiVAE is less sensitive to the causal strength of unobserved confounding variables. We further apply CFDiVAE to a real-world dataset to demonstrate its potential application.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Reasoning requires adaptation to novel problem settings under limited data and distribution shift. This work introduces CausalARC: an experimental testbed for AI reasoning in low-data and out-of-distribution regimes, modeled after the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC). Each CausalARC reasoning task is sampled from a fully specified causal world model, formally expressed as a structural causal model. Principled data augmentations provide observational, interventional, and counterfactual feedback about the world model in the form of few-shot, in-context learning demonstrations. As a proof-of-concept, we illustrate the use of CausalARC for four language model evaluation settings: (1) abstract reasoning with test-time training, (2) counterfactual reasoning with in-context learning, (3) program synthesis, and (4) causal discovery with logical reasoning.

Large language model (LLM) agents frequently fail on multi-step tasks involving reasoning, tool use, and environment interaction. While such failures are typically logged or retried heuristically, they contain structured signals about where execution broke down. We introduce CausalFlow, an interventional framework that converts failed agent traces into minimal counterfactual repairs and reusable supervision. CausalFlow models execution traces as sequential chains of dependent steps and computes Causal Responsibility Scores(CRS) via step-level counterfactual intervention to identify failure-inducing steps. For these steps, we generate minimally edited repairs that flip the final outcome to success, producing validated contrastive pairs of the form (wrong step, corrected step). CausalFlow supports two complementary uses: targeted test-time repair that recovers from failures with minimal behavioral drift, and training-time supervision suitable for offline preference optimization or reward modeling. Across four benchmarks spanning mathematical reasoning, code generation, question answering, and medical browsing, CausalFlow converts failed executions into validated minimal repairs with high minimality and causal-consensus scores, and demonstrates that causal attribution is necessary for reliable improvement across diverse agent tasks, outperforming heuristic refinement in complex retrieval settings while producing more localized repairs throughout. These results demonstrate that interventional analysis over structured execution traces provides a principled and scalable mechanism for transforming agent failures into reliability gains and learning-ready supervision.

We have recently witnessed a number of impressive results on hard mathematical reasoning problems with language models. At the same time, the robustness of these models has also been called into question; recent works have shown that models can rely on shallow patterns in the problem description when generating a solution. Building on the idea of behavioral testing, we propose a novel framework, which pins down the causal effect of various factors in the input, e.g., the surface form of the problem text, the operands, and math operators on the output solution. By grounding the behavioral analysis in a causal graph describing an intuitive reasoning process, we study the behavior of language models in terms of robustness and sensitivity to direct interventions in the input space. We apply our framework on a test bed of math word problems. Our analysis shows that robustness does not appear to continuously improve as a function of size, but the GPT-3 Davinci models (175B) achieve a dramatic improvement in both robustness and sensitivity compared to all other GPT variants.

Reward models (RMs) are fundamental to aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) via human feedback, yet they often suffer from reward hacking. They tend to latch on to superficial or spurious attributes, such as response length or formatting, mistaking these cues learned from correlations in training data for the true causal drivers of quality (e.g., factuality, relevance). This occurs because standard training objectives struggle to disentangle these factors, leading to brittle RMs and misaligned policies. We introduce Crome (Causally Robust Reward Modeling), a novel framework grounded in an explicit causal model designed to mitigate reward hacking. Crome employs the following synthetic targeted augmentations during training: (1) Causal Augmentations, which are pairs that differ along specific causal attributes, to enforce sensitivity along each causal attribute individually, and (2) Neutral Augmentations, which are tie-label pairs varying primarily in spurious attributes, to enforce invariance along spurious attributes. Notably, our augmentations are produced without any knowledge of spurious factors, via answer interventions only along causal rubrics, that are identified by querying an oracle LLM. Empirically, Crome significantly outperforms standard baselines on RewardBench, improving average accuracy by up to 5.4% and achieving gains of up to 13.2% and 7.2% in specific categories. The robustness of Crome is further testified by the consistent gains obtained in a Best-of-N inference setting across increasing N, across various benchmarks, including the popular RewardBench (covering chat, chat-hard, safety, and reasoning tasks), the safety-focused WildGuardTest, and the reasoning-specific GSM8k.

Video Temporal Grounding (VTG) is a crucial capability for video understanding models and plays a vital role in downstream tasks such as video browsing and editing. To effectively handle various tasks simultaneously and enable zero-shot prediction, there is a growing trend in employing video LLMs for VTG tasks. However, current video LLM-based methods rely exclusively on natural language generation, lacking the ability to model the clear structure inherent in videos, which restricts their effectiveness in tackling VTG tasks. To address this issue, this paper first formally introduces causal event modeling framework, which represents videos as sequences of events, and predict the current event using previous events, video inputs, and textural instructions. Each event consists of three components: timestamps, salient scores, and textual captions. We then propose a novel task-interleaved video LLM called TRACE to effectively implement the causal event modeling framework in practice. The TRACE processes visual frames, timestamps, salient scores, and text as distinct tasks, employing various encoders and decoding heads for each. Task tokens are arranged in an interleaved sequence according to the causal event modeling framework's formulation. Extensive experiments on various VTG tasks and datasets demonstrate the superior performance of TRACE compared to state-of-the-art video LLMs. Our model and code are available at https://github.com/gyxxyg/TRACE.

The optimization of long-horizon agents increasingly relies on reflection-based mechanisms, where a large language model (LLM) acts as an optimizer to diagnose agent failures and improve agent policies. However, real execution traces are difficult to use directly for optimization: large trace collections are often redundant and heterogeneous, making optimization inefficient and prone to overfitting to low-value failures; meanwhile, each individual trajectory also contains many irrelevant steps, while naive context reduction methods such as truncation or sliding windows can discard causally important evidence and produce misleading optimization signals. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce STRACE (Structural TRajectory Analysis and Causal Extraction), a framework that constructs high signal-noise optimization contexts for more precise and effective optimization. At the batch level, STRACE mines failure patterns to filter redundant traces and retain representative failures; within each selected trace, it performs causal localization over a textual dependency graph to remove non-causal steps and identify the true root-cause module for optimization. Empirical results demonstrate that STRACE significantly outperforms standard context-filtering baselines. Notably, on a challenging formal verification task (VeruSAGE-Bench), it successfully optimizes human-expert designed agents, delivering 1.4times success-rate improvement (42.5% to 58.5%). The code is available at https://github.com/moomight/STRACE .

Transformers achieve strong language modeling performance by providing direct token-to-token communication paths, but causal self-attention scales quadratically with context length. Recurrent and state-space models reduce this cost, yet compress history into sequentially updated fixed-size states. This paper studies a third primitive: a parallel content-addressed memory over causal successor records. The proposed Parallel Causal Associative Field (PCAF) writes local records from a context window into hash buckets, retrieves a bounded candidate set for the current query, forms a sparse cache distribution over successor tokens, and mixes that cache with a parametric local language model through a learned gate. The resulting model maintains sparse long-context access while avoiding a single fixed recurrent state bottleneck. We evaluate PCAF under full autoregressive pretraining on WikiText-103 and PG-19 using a distributed Google Cloud TPU v4-32 pod. At 303M parameters and context length T = 2048, PCAF-semantic reaches 36.31 perplexity on WikiText-103 and 52.45 perplexity on PG-19, compared with 47.49 and 53.84 for a matched dense Transformer. PCAF-semantic simultaneously processes 0.61-0.62M tokens/s across the TPU pod, versus 0.43M tokens/s for dense and local attention baselines. Supporting 41M-parameter multi-seed sweeps and single-GPU component ablations show that the associative cache, retrieval capacity, and learned gate materially affect the speed-quality trade-off.

Text-based causal inference increasingly employs textual data as proxies for unobserved confounders, yet this approach introduces a previously undertheorized source of bias: treatment leakage. Treatment leakage occurs when text intended to capture confounding information also contains signals predictive of treatment status, thereby inducing post-treatment bias in causal estimates. Critically, this problem can arise even when documents precede treatment assignment, as authors may employ future-referencing language that anticipates subsequent interventions. Despite growing recognition of this issue, no systematic methods exist for identifying and mitigating treatment leakage in text-as-confounder applications. This paper addresses this gap through three contributions. First, we provide formal statistical and set-theoretic definitions of treatment leakage that clarify when and why bias occurs. Second, we propose four text distillation methods -- similarity-based passage removal, distant supervision classification, salient feature removal, and iterative nullspace projection -- designed to eliminate treatment-predictive content while preserving confounder information. Third, we validate these methods through simulations using synthetic text and an empirical application examining International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programs and child mortality. Our findings indicate that moderate distillation optimally balances bias reduction against confounder retention, whereas overly stringent approaches degrade estimate precision.

We introduce Arrow, a foundation model for zero-shot causal discovery on observational tabular data. Arrow factorizes a directed acyclic graph into an undirected skeleton and a topological order, guaranteeing acyclicity by construction. Given a new dataset, it uses a transformer-based architecture to contextualize variables within and across observations, then predicts skeleton edge probabilities and node order scores that together define a graph. Arrow is trained in a supervised fashion on synthetic datasets with ground-truth graphs, using an end-to-end differentiable directed edge composite likelihood induced by the skeleton-order factorization. The training distribution spans diverse graph families, functional forms, noise models, and dataset shapes. Across in- and out-of-distribution synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real datasets, Arrow matches or outperforms existing causal discovery methods at substantially lower inference cost than competitive alternatives. Our results demonstrate that large-scale pretraining on diverse synthetic data can yield zero-shot causal discovery models that are fast, accurate, and reusable on new datasets.

Motivated by equilibrium models of labor markets, we develop a formulation of causal strategic classification in which strategic agents can directly manipulate their outcomes. As an application, we compare employers that anticipate the strategic response of a labor force with employers that do not. We show through a combination of theory and experiment that employers with performatively optimal hiring policies improve employer reward, labor force skill level, and in some cases labor force equity. On the other hand, we demonstrate that performative employers harm labor force utility and fail to prevent discrimination in other cases.

The ability to perform causal reasoning is widely considered a core feature of intelligence. In this work, we investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can coherently reason about causality. Much of the existing work in natural language processing (NLP) focuses on evaluating commonsense causal reasoning in LLMs, thus failing to assess whether a model can perform causal inference in accordance with a set of well-defined formal rules. To address this, we propose a new NLP task, causal inference in natural language, inspired by the "causal inference engine" postulated by Judea Pearl et al. We compose a large dataset, CLadder, with 10K samples: based on a collection of causal graphs and queries (associational, interventional, and counterfactual), we obtain symbolic questions and ground-truth answers, through an oracle causal inference engine. These are then translated into natural language. We evaluate multiple LLMs on our dataset, and we introduce and evaluate a bespoke chain-of-thought prompting strategy, CausalCoT. We show that our task is highly challenging for LLMs, and we conduct an in-depth analysis to gain deeper insights into the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs. Our data is open-sourced at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalNLP/cladder, and our code can be found at https://github.com/causalNLP/cladder.

Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing. There are a large number of methods to predict the effect of an existing intervention based on historical data from individuals who received it. However, in many settings it is important to predict the effects of novel interventions (e.g., a newly invented drug), which these methods do not address. Here, we consider zero-shot causal learning: predicting the personalized effects of a novel intervention. We propose CaML, a causal meta-learning framework which formulates the personalized prediction of each intervention's effect as a task. CaML trains a single meta-model across thousands of tasks, each constructed by sampling an intervention, along with its recipients and nonrecipients. By leveraging both intervention information (e.g., a drug's attributes) and individual features~(e.g., a patient's history), CaML is able to predict the personalized effects of novel interventions that do not exist at the time of training. Experimental results on real world datasets in large-scale medical claims and cell-line perturbations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Most strikingly, CaML's zero-shot predictions outperform even strong baselines trained directly on data from the test interventions.

Discovering causal structures from data is a challenging inference problem of fundamental importance in all areas of science. The appealing properties of neural networks have recently led to a surge of interest in differentiable neural network-based methods for learning causal structures from data. So far, differentiable causal discovery has focused on static datasets of observational or fixed interventional origin. In this work, we introduce an active intervention targeting (AIT) method which enables a quick identification of the underlying causal structure of the data-generating process. Our method significantly reduces the required number of interactions compared with random intervention targeting and is applicable for both discrete and continuous optimization formulations of learning the underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) from data. We examine the proposed method across multiple frameworks in a wide range of settings and demonstrate superior performance on multiple benchmarks from simulated to real-world data.

This paper proposes an approach to analyze an event log of a business process in order to generate case-level recommendations of treatments that maximize the probability of a given outcome. Users classify the attributes in the event log into controllable and non-controllable, where the former correspond to attributes that can be altered during an execution of the process (the possible treatments). We use an action rule mining technique to identify treatments that co-occur with the outcome under some conditions. Since action rules are generated based on correlation rather than causation, we then use a causal machine learning technique, specifically uplift trees, to discover subgroups of cases for which a treatment has a high causal effect on the outcome after adjusting for confounding variables. We test the relevance of this approach using an event log of a loan application process and compare our findings with recommendations manually produced by process mining experts.

The majority of available text summarization datasets include short-form source documents that lack long-range causal and temporal dependencies, and often contain strong layout and stylistic biases. While relevant, such datasets will offer limited challenges for future generations of text summarization systems. We address these issues by introducing BookSum, a collection of datasets for long-form narrative summarization. Our dataset covers source documents from the literature domain, such as novels, plays and stories, and includes highly abstractive, human written summaries on three levels of granularity of increasing difficulty: paragraph-, chapter-, and book-level. The domain and structure of our dataset poses a unique set of challenges for summarization systems, which include: processing very long documents, non-trivial causal and temporal dependencies, and rich discourse structures. To facilitate future work, we trained and evaluated multiple extractive and abstractive summarization models as baselines for our dataset.

Recent advances in artificial intelligence reveal the limits of purely predictive systems and call for a shift toward causal and collaborative reasoning. Drawing inspiration from the revolution of Grothendieck in mathematics, we introduce the relativity of causal knowledge, which posits structural causal models (SCMs) are inherently imperfect, subjective representations embedded within networks of relationships. By leveraging category theory, we arrange SCMs into a functor category and show that their observational and interventional probability measures naturally form convex structures. This result allows us to encode non-intervened SCMs with convex spaces of probability measures. Next, using sheaf theory, we construct the network sheaf and cosheaf of causal knowledge. These structures enable the transfer of causal knowledge across the network while incorporating interventional consistency and the perspective of the subjects, ultimately leading to the formal, mathematical definition of relative causal knowledge.

Forced alignment (FA) predicts start and end timestamps for words or characters in speech, but existing methods are language-specific and prone to cumulative temporal shifts. The multilingual speech understanding and long-sequence processing abilities of speech large language models (SLLMs) make them promising for FA in multilingual, crosslingual, and long-form speech settings. However, directly applying the next-token prediction paradigm of SLLMs to FA results in hallucinations and slow inference. To bridge the gap, we propose LLM-ForcedAligner, reformulating FA as a slot-filling paradigm: timestamps are treated as discrete indices, and special timestamp tokens are inserted as slots into the transcript. Conditioned on the speech embeddings and the transcript with slots, the SLLM directly predicts the time indices at slots. During training, causal attention masking with non-shifted input and label sequences allows each slot to predict its own timestamp index based on itself and preceding context, with loss computed only at slot positions. Dynamic slot insertion enables FA at arbitrary positions. Moreover, non-autoregressive inference is supported, avoiding hallucinations and improving speed. Experiments across multilingual, crosslingual, and long-form speech scenarios show that LLM-ForcedAligner achieves a 69%~78% relative reduction in accumulated averaging shift compared with prior methods. The checkpoint and inference code will be released later.

In-context learning is a powerful emergent ability in transformer models. Prior work in mechanistic interpretability has identified a circuit element that may be critical for in-context learning -- the induction head (IH), which performs a match-and-copy operation. During training of large transformers on natural language data, IHs emerge around the same time as a notable phase change in the loss. Despite the robust evidence for IHs and this interesting coincidence with the phase change, relatively little is known about the diversity and emergence dynamics of IHs. Why is there more than one IH, and how are they dependent on each other? Why do IHs appear all of a sudden, and what are the subcircuits that enable them to emerge? We answer these questions by studying IH emergence dynamics in a controlled setting by training on synthetic data. In doing so, we develop and share a novel optogenetics-inspired causal framework for modifying activations throughout training. Using this framework, we delineate the diverse and additive nature of IHs. By clamping subsets of activations throughout training, we then identify three underlying subcircuits that interact to drive IH formation, yielding the phase change. Furthermore, these subcircuits shed light on data-dependent properties of formation, such as phase change timing, already showing the promise of this more in-depth understanding of subcircuits that need to "go right" for an induction head.

Despite the importance of causal reasoning, training LLMs to reason causally remains underexplored. Existing data efforts mostly focus on benchmarking LLMs on specific aspects of causality, making them less suitable for training generalizable causal reasoners. To address this, we propose UniCo, a data generation framework that both (1) addresses 18 causal query types across Pearl's Causal Ladder and (2) translates natively symbolic examples into code and natural language forms to simulate real-world use cases where causal terms are not explicitly specified. To ensure data quality, UniCo grounds answers with exact causal inference and filters cases with reasoning shortcuts. Upon supervised finetuning with 66.6K UniCo-generated instances, Qwen3-4B, Qwen3-8B and Olmo-3-7B-Instruct achieve an average of 22.9% improvements across all 18 in-distribution query types, and 8.1% over state-of-the-art causal data generation frameworks on 7 established causal benchmarks outside the training distribution. More importantly, in real-world medical understanding, legal decision, and tabular reasoning, UniCo-trained models consistently display more faithful reasoning traces, outperforming the base models by an average of 20.2% in faithfulness metrics. These suggest that causality-centered training not only strengthens causal reasoning, but also equips LLMs with a causal mindset in general reasoning tasks.

We explore efficient strategies to fine-tune decoder-only Large Language Models (LLMs) for downstream text classification under resource constraints. Two approaches are investigated: (1) attaching a classification head to a pre-trained causal LLM and fine-tuning on the task (using the LLM's final token embedding as a sequence representation), and (2) instruction-tuning the LLM in a prompt->response format for classification. To enable single-GPU fine-tuning of models up to 8B parameters, we combine 4-bit model quantization with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) for parameter-efficient training. Experiments on two datasets - a proprietary single-label dataset and the public WIPO-Alpha patent dataset (extreme multi-label classification) - show that the embedding-based method significantly outperforms the instruction-tuned method in F1-score, and is very competitive with - even surpassing - fine-tuned domain-specific models (e.g. BERT) on the same tasks. These results demonstrate that directly leveraging the internal representations of causal LLMs, along with efficient fine-tuning techniques, yields impressive classification performance under limited computational resources. We discuss the advantages of each approach while outlining practical guidelines and future directions for optimizing LLM fine-tuning in classification scenarios.

Urban causal research is essential for understanding the complex dynamics of cities and informing evidence-based policies. However, it is challenged by the inefficiency and bias of hypothesis generation, barriers to multimodal data complexity, and the methodological fragility of causal experimentation. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) present an opportunity to rethink how urban causal analysis is conducted. This Perspective examines current urban causal research by analyzing taxonomies that categorize research topics, data sources, and methodological approaches to identify structural gaps. We then introduce an LLM-driven conceptual framework, AutoUrbanCI, composed of four distinct modular agents responsible for hypothesis generation, data engineering, experiment design and execution, and results interpretation with policy recommendations. We propose evaluation criteria for rigor and transparency and reflect on implications for human-AI collaboration, equity, and accountability. We call for a new research agenda that embraces AI-augmented workflows not as replacements for human expertise but as tools to broaden participation, improve reproducibility, and unlock more inclusive forms of urban causal reasoning.

Causal reasoning in natural language requires identifying relevant variables, understanding their interactions, and reasoning about effects and interventions, often under noisy or ambiguous conditions. While large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong general reasoning abilities, they struggle to disentangle correlation from causation, particularly when observations are partially incorrect or irrelevant information is present. In this work, we introduce NoisyCausal, a new benchmark designed to evaluate causal reasoning under structured noise. Each instance is generated from a ground-truth causal graph and contextualized with a natural language scenario by injecting controllable forms of noise, such as irrelevant distractors, value perturbations, confounding, and partial observability. Moreover, we propose a modular reasoning framework that combines LLMs with explicit causal structure to address these challenges. Our method prompts the LLM to extract variables, construct a causal graph from context, and then reformulates the reasoning task as a structured prompt grounded in this graph. Rather than relying on statistical patterns alone, the LLM is guided by symbolic structure, enabling more interpretable and robust inference. Experimental results show that our method significantly outperforms standard prompting and reasoning baselines on NoisyCausal. Furthermore, it generalizes well to external benchmarks such as Cladder without task-specific tuning. Our findings highlight the importance of combining causal abstractions with language-driven reasoning to achieve faithful and robust causal understanding in LLMs.

Autoencoders have been used for finding interpretable and disentangled features underlying neural network representations in both image and text domains. While the efficacy and pitfalls of such methods are well-studied in vision, there is a lack of corresponding results, both qualitative and quantitative, for the text domain. We aim to address this gap by training sparse autoencoders (SAEs) on a synthetic testbed of formal languages. Specifically, we train SAEs on the hidden representations of models trained on formal languages (Dyck-2, Expr, and English PCFG) under a wide variety of hyperparameter settings, finding interpretable latents often emerge in the features learned by our SAEs. However, similar to vision, we find performance turns out to be highly sensitive to inductive biases of the training pipeline. Moreover, we show latents correlating to certain features of the input do not always induce a causal impact on model's computation. We thus argue that causality has to become a central target in SAE training: learning of causal features should be incentivized from the ground-up. Motivated by this, we propose and perform preliminary investigations for an approach that promotes learning of causally relevant features in our formal language setting.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown great promise in planning and reasoning applications. These tasks demand robust systems, which arguably require a causal understanding of the environment. While LLMs can acquire and reflect common sense causal knowledge from their pretraining data, this information is often incomplete, incorrect, or inapplicable to a specific environment. In contrast, causal representation learning (CRL) focuses on identifying the underlying causal structure within a given environment. We propose a framework that integrates CRLs with LLMs to enable causally-aware reasoning and planning. This framework learns a causal world model, with causal variables linked to natural language expressions. This mapping provides LLMs with a flexible interface to process and generate descriptions of actions and states in text form. Effectively, the causal world model acts as a simulator that the LLM can query and interact with. We evaluate the framework on causal inference and planning tasks across temporal scales and environmental complexities. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, with the causally-aware method outperforming LLM-based reasoners, especially for longer planning horizons.

Fair machine learning aims to prevent discrimination against individuals or sub-populations based on sensitive attributes such as gender and race. In recent years, causal inference methods have been increasingly used in fair machine learning to measure unfairness by causal effects. However, current methods assume that the true causal graph is given, which is often not true in real-world applications. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a framework for achieving causal fairness based on the notion of interventions when the true causal graph is partially known. The proposed approach involves modeling fair prediction using a Partially Directed Acyclic Graph (PDAG), specifically, a class of causal DAGs that can be learned from observational data combined with domain knowledge. The PDAG is used to measure causal fairness, and a constrained optimization problem is formulated to balance between fairness and accuracy. Results on both simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of this method.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation. This disconnect is especially critical in Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) for causal inference, where propensity score errors near 0 and 1 often lead to high bias and variance. We propose a principled framework for deriving task-specific strictly proper scoring rules by matching the local curvature of the downstream error metric. We apply this to the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimation, deriving a closed-form loss and its corresponding canonical probability mapping that can be readily integrated with any model like a neural network or a gradient boosting algorithm. Extensive evaluations on causal inference benchmarks demonstrate that our tailored objective consistently outperforms standard likelihood-based and covariate-balancing approaches.

Causal reasoning, the ability to identify cause-and-effect relationship, is crucial in human thinking. Although large language models (LLMs) succeed in many NLP tasks, it is still challenging for them to conduct complex causal reasoning like abductive reasoning and counterfactual reasoning. Given the fact that programming code may express causal relations more often and explicitly with conditional statements like ``if``, we want to explore whether Code-LLMs acquire better causal reasoning abilities. Our experiments show that compared to text-only LLMs, Code-LLMs with code prompts are significantly better in causal reasoning. We further intervene on the prompts from different aspects, and discover that the programming structure is crucial in code prompt design, while Code-LLMs are robust towards format perturbations.

We verify that persistent observers in causally invariant hypergraph substrates satisfy the conditions of the Conant-Ashby Good Regulator Theorem. Building on Wolfram's hypergraph physics and Vanchurin's neural network cosmology, we formalize persistent observers as entities that minimize prediction error at their boundary with the environment. Applying a modern reformulation of the Conant-Ashby theorem, we demonstrate that hypergraph observers satisfy Good Regulator conditions, requiring them to maintain internal models. Once an internal model with loss function exists, the emergence of a Fisher information metric follows from standard information geometry. Invoking Amari's uniqueness theorem for reparameterization-invariant gradients, we show that natural gradient descent is the unique admissible learning rule. Under the ansatz M=F^2 for exponential family observers and one specific convergence time functional, we derive a closed-form formula for the regime parameter alpha in Vanchurin's Type II framework, with a quantum-classical threshold at kappa(F)=2. However, three alternative convergence models do not reproduce this result, so this prediction is strongly model-dependent. We further introduce the directional regime parameter alpha_{v_k} and the trace-free deviation tensor, showing that a single observer can simultaneously occupy different Vanchurin regimes along different eigendirections of the Fisher metric. This connects Wolfram and Vanchurin frameworks through established theorems, providing approximately 25-30% novel contribution.

As foundation models (FMs) approach human-level fluency, distinguishing synthetic from organic content has become a key challenge for Trustworthy Web Intelligence. This paper presents JudgeGPT and RogueGPT, a dual-axis framework that decouples "authenticity" from "attribution" to investigate the mechanisms of human susceptibility. Analyzing 918 evaluations across five FMs (including GPT-4 and Llama-2), we employ Structural Causal Models (SCMs) as a principal framework for formulating testable causal hypotheses about detection accuracy. Contrary to partisan narratives, we find that political orientation shows a negligible association with detection performance (r=-0.10). Instead, "fake news familiarity" emerges as a candidate mediator (r=0.35), suggesting that exposure may function as adversarial training for human discriminators. We identify a "fluency trap" where GPT-4 outputs (HumanMachineScore: 0.20) bypass Source Monitoring mechanisms, rendering them indistinguishable from human text. These findings suggest that "pre-bunking" interventions should target cognitive source monitoring rather than demographic segmentation to ensure trustworthy information ecosystems.

Failure attribution in multi-agent systems -- pinpointing the exact step where a decisive error occurs -- is a critical yet unsolved challenge. Current methods treat this as a pattern recognition task over long conversation logs, leading to critically low step-level accuracy (below 17\%), which renders them impractical for debugging complex systems. Their core weakness is a fundamental inability to perform robust counterfactual reasoning: to determine if correcting a single action would have actually averted the task failure. To bridge this counterfactual inference gap, we introduce Abduct-Act-Predict (A2P) Scaffolding, a novel agent framework that transforms failure attribution from pattern recognition into a structured causal inference task. A2P explicitly guides a large language model through a formal three-step reasoning process within a single inference pass: (1) Abduction, to infer the hidden root causes behind an agent's actions; (2) Action, to define a minimal corrective intervention; and (3) Prediction, to simulate the subsequent trajectory and verify if the intervention resolves the failure. This structured approach leverages the holistic context of the entire conversation while imposing a rigorous causal logic on the model's analysis. Our extensive experiments on the Who\&When benchmark demonstrate its efficacy. On the Algorithm-Generated dataset, A2P achieves 47.46\% step-level accuracy, a 2.85times improvement over the 16.67\% of the baseline. On the more complex Hand-Crafted dataset, it achieves 29.31\% step accuracy, a 2.43times improvement over the baseline's 12.07\%. By reframing the problem through a causal lens, A2P Scaffolding provides a robust, verifiable, and significantly more accurate solution for automated failure attribution. Ours code are released at https://github.com/ResearAI/A2P.

The aim of Logic2Text is to generate controllable and faithful texts conditioned on tables and logical forms, which not only requires a deep understanding of the tables and logical forms, but also warrants symbolic reasoning over the tables. State-of-the-art methods based on pre-trained models have achieved remarkable performance on the standard test dataset. However, we question whether these methods really learn how to perform logical reasoning, rather than just relying on the spurious correlations between the headers of the tables and operators of the logical form. To verify this hypothesis, we manually construct a set of counterfactual samples, which modify the original logical forms to generate counterfactual logical forms with rarely co-occurred table headers and logical operators. SOTA methods give much worse results on these counterfactual samples compared with the results on the original test dataset, which verifies our hypothesis. To deal with this problem, we firstly analyze this bias from a causal perspective, based on which we propose two approaches to reduce the model's reliance on the shortcut. The first one incorporates the hierarchical structure of the logical forms into the model. The second one exploits automatically generated counterfactual data for training. Automatic and manual experimental results on the original test dataset and the counterfactual dataset show that our method is effective to alleviate the spurious correlation. Our work points out the weakness of previous methods and takes a further step toward developing Logic2Text models with real logical reasoning ability.

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful inductive biases, which constrain the regression hypothesis space and improve predictive performance. We introduce collider regression, a framework to incorporate probabilistic causal knowledge from a collider in a regression problem. When the hypothesis space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we prove a strictly positive generalisation benefit under mild assumptions and provide closed-form estimators of the empirical risk minimiser. Experiments on synthetic and climate model data demonstrate performance gains of the proposed methodology.

Automated discovery of physical laws from observational data in the real world is a grand challenge in AI. Current methods, relying on symbolic regression or LLMs, are limited to uni-modal data and overlook the rich, visual phenomenological representations of motion that are indispensable to physicists. This "sensory deprivation" severely weakens their ability to interpret the inherent spatio-temporal patterns within dynamic phenomena. To address this gap, we propose VIPER-R1, a multimodal model that performs Visual Induction for Physics-based Equation Reasoning to discover fundamental symbolic formulas. It integrates visual perception, trajectory data, and symbolic reasoning to emulate the scientific discovery process. The model is trained via a curriculum of Motion Structure Induction (MSI), using supervised fine-tuning to interpret kinematic phase portraits and to construct hypotheses guided by a Causal Chain of Thought (C-CoT), followed by Reward-Guided Symbolic Calibration (RGSC) to refine the formula structure with reinforcement learning. During inference, the trained VIPER-R1 acts as an agent: it first posits a high-confidence symbolic ansatz, then proactively invokes an external symbolic regression tool to perform Symbolic Residual Realignment (SR^2). This final step, analogous to a physicist's perturbation analysis, reconciles the theoretical model with empirical data. To support this research, we introduce PhysSymbol, a new 5,000-instance multimodal corpus. Experiments show that VIPER-R1 consistently outperforms state-of-the-art VLM baselines in accuracy and interpretability, enabling more precise discovery of physical laws. Project page: https://jiaaqiliu.github.io/VIPER-R1/

This paper aims to quantitatively evaluate the performance of ChatGPT, an interactive large language model, on inter-sentential relations such as temporal relations, causal relations, and discourse relations. Given ChatGPT's promising performance across various tasks, we proceed to carry out thorough evaluations on the whole test sets of 11 datasets, including temporal and causal relations, PDTB2.0-based, and dialogue-based discourse relations. To ensure the reliability of our findings, we employ three tailored prompt templates for each task, including the zero-shot prompt template, zero-shot prompt engineering (PE) template, and in-context learning (ICL) prompt template, to establish the initial baseline scores for all popular sentence-pair relation classification tasks for the first time. Through our study, we discover that ChatGPT exhibits exceptional proficiency in detecting and reasoning about causal relations, albeit it may not possess the same level of expertise in identifying the temporal order between two events. While it is capable of identifying the majority of discourse relations with existing explicit discourse connectives, the implicit discourse relation remains a formidable challenge. Concurrently, ChatGPT demonstrates subpar performance in the dialogue discourse parsing task that requires structural understanding in a dialogue before being aware of the discourse relation.

Understanding causality has vital importance for various Natural Language Processing (NLP) applications. Beyond the labeled instances, conceptual explanations of the causality can provide deep understanding of the causal facts to facilitate the causal reasoning process. However, such explanation information still remains absent in existing causal reasoning resources. In this paper, we fill this gap by presenting a human-annotated explainable CAusal REasoning dataset (e-CARE), which contains over 21K causal reasoning questions, together with natural language formed explanations of the causal questions. Experimental results show that generating valid explanations for causal facts still remains especially challenging for the state-of-the-art models, and the explanation information can be helpful for promoting the accuracy and stability of causal reasoning models.

Self-reflection mechanisms that rely on purely text-based rethinking processes perform well in most multimodal tasks. However, when directly applied to long-form video understanding scenarios, they exhibit clear limitations. The fundamental reasons for this lie in two points: (1)long-form video understanding involves richer and more dynamic visual input, meaning rethinking only the text information is insufficient and necessitates a further rethinking process specifically targeting visual information; (2) purely text-based reflection mechanisms lack cross-modal interaction capabilities, preventing them from fully integrating visual information during reflection. Motivated by these insights, we propose REVISOR (REflective VIsual Segment Oriented Reasoning), a novel framework for tool-augmented multimodal reflection. REVISOR enables MLLMs to collaboratively construct introspective reflection processes across textual and visual modalities, significantly enhancing their reasoning capability for long-form video understanding. To ensure that REVISOR can learn to accurately review video segments highly relevant to the question during reinforcement learning, we designed the Dual Attribution Decoupled Reward (DADR) mechanism. Integrated into the GRPO training strategy, this mechanism enforces causal alignment between the model's reasoning and the selected video evidence. Notably, the REVISOR framework significantly enhances long-form video understanding capability of MLLMs without requiring supplementary supervised fine-tuning or external models, achieving impressive results on four benchmarks including VideoMME, LongVideoBench, MLVU, and LVBench.

A central puzzle for the behavioural sciences and for human-facing artificial intelligence is the persistence of within-person variability. The same individual, presented with the same observable input, produces different outcomes on different occasions, and different individuals produce divergent outcomes that no observable covariate fully predicts. We argue that this variability belongs in the dynamic latent state of the person, and that human outcomes are controllable in a precise and operational sense through interventions that target the state and its weighting at the moment a decision is being formed. We define a state as the time-indexed weighting vector over the dimensions that govern how an individual's biology, physiology, and neuropsychology process the next event into a decision and an outcome. The relationship between state, decision, and outcome is causal rather than correlational. The weighting vector is dynamic at sub-daily timescales. The conscious channel through which outcomes are reportable is a narrow attentional bottleneck whose contents are themselves state-dependent. Taken together, these claims imply that the outcome of a given event is controllable, conditionally, on the state-trajectory at the time of intervention. We motivate the framework with six strands of established evidence (causal inference, predictive processing, allostasis, attentional bottleneck, chronobiology, computational psychiatry) and a 24-month observational base from a deployed behavioural platform spanning more than 200,000 consented users across four occupational personas (research period 2023 to 2026). We derive seven testable predictions, list six operational requirements for state-aware systems, and discuss implications for digital health, education, AI personalisation, and personal agency.

The increasing rate of road accidents worldwide results not only in significant loss of life but also imposes billions financial burdens on societies. Current research in traffic crash frequency modeling and analysis has predominantly approached the problem as classification tasks, focusing mainly on learning-based classification or ensemble learning methods. These approaches often overlook the intricate relationships among the complex infrastructure, environmental, human and contextual factors related to traffic crashes and risky situations. In contrast, we initially propose a large-scale traffic crash language dataset, named CrashEvent, summarizing 19,340 real-world crash reports and incorporating infrastructure data, environmental and traffic textual and visual information in Washington State. Leveraging this rich dataset, we further formulate the crash event feature learning as a novel text reasoning problem and further fine-tune various large language models (LLMs) to predict detailed accident outcomes, such as crash types, severity and number of injuries, based on contextual and environmental factors. The proposed model, CrashLLM, distinguishes itself from existing solutions by leveraging the inherent text reasoning capabilities of LLMs to parse and learn from complex, unstructured data, thereby enabling a more nuanced analysis of contributing factors. Our experiments results shows that our LLM-based approach not only predicts the severity of accidents but also classifies different types of accidents and predicts injury outcomes, all with averaged F1 score boosted from 34.9% to 53.8%. Furthermore, CrashLLM can provide valuable insights for numerous open-world what-if situational-awareness traffic safety analyses with learned reasoning features, which existing models cannot offer. We make our benchmark, datasets, and model public available for further exploration.

Automatically detecting abnormal events in videos is crucial for modern autonomous systems, yet existing Video Anomaly Detection (VAD) benchmarks lack the scene diversity, balanced anomaly coverage, and temporal complexity needed to reliably assess real-world performance. Meanwhile, the community is increasingly moving toward Video Anomaly Understanding (VAU), which requires deeper semantic and causal reasoning but remains difficult to benchmark due to the heavy manual annotation effort it demands. In this paper, we introduce Pistachio, a new VAD/VAU benchmark constructed entirely through a controlled, generation-based pipeline. By leveraging recent advances in video generation models, Pistachio provides precise control over scenes, anomaly types, and temporal narratives, effectively eliminating the biases and limitations of Internet-collected datasets. Our pipeline integrates scene-conditioned anomaly assignment, multi-step storyline generation, and a temporally consistent long-form synthesis strategy that produces coherent 41-second videos with minimal human intervention. Extensive experiments demonstrate the scale, diversity, and complexity of Pistachio, revealing new challenges for existing methods and motivating future research on dynamic and multi-event anomaly understanding.

A pervasive intuition holds that vision-language models (VLMs) are most trustworthy when their attention maps look sharp: concentrated attention on the queried region should imply a confident, calibrated answer. We test this Attention-Confidence Assumption directly. We instrument three open-weight VLM families (LLaVA-1.5, PaliGemma, Qwen2-VL; 3-7B parameters) with a unified mechanistic pipeline -- the VLM Reliability Probe (VRP) -- that compares attention structure, generation dynamics, and hidden-state geometry against a single correctness label. Three results emerge. (i) Attention structure is a near-zero predictor of correctness (R_pb(C_k,y)=0.001, 95% CI [-0.034,0.036]; R_pb(H_s,y)=-0.012, [-0.047,0.024] on a pooled n=3,090 split), even though attention remains causally necessary for feature extraction (top-30% patch masking drops accuracy by 8.2-11.3 pp, p<0.001). (ii) Reliability becomes legible later in the computation: a single hidden-state linear probe reaches AUROC>0.95 on POPE for two of three families, and self-consistency at K=10 is the strongest behavioral predictor we measure at 10x inference cost (R_pb=0.43). (iii) Causal neuron-level ablations expose a sharp architectural split with direct monitor-design implications: late-fusion LLaVA concentrates reliability in a fragile late bottleneck (-8.3 pp object-identification accuracy after top-5 probe-neuron ablation), whereas early-fusion PaliGemma and Qwen2-VL distribute it widely and absorb destruction of ~50% of their peak-layer hidden dimension with <=1 pp degradation. The takeaway is narrow but consequential: in 3-7B VLMs, reliability is read more reliably off hidden-state geometry, layer-wise margin formation, and sparse late-layer circuits than off attention-map sharpness.

The design of safety-critical agents based on large language models (LLMs) requires more than simple prompt engineering. This paper presents a comprehensive information-theoretic analysis of how rule encodings in system prompts influence attention mechanisms and compliance behaviour. We demonstrate that rule formats with low syntactic entropy and highly concentrated anchors reduce attention entropy and improve pointer fidelity, but reveal a fundamental trade-off between anchor redundancy and attention entropy that previous work failed to recognize. Through formal analysis of multiple attention architectures including causal, bidirectional, local sparse, kernelized, and cross-attention mechanisms, we establish bounds on pointer fidelity and show how anchor placement strategies must account for competing fidelity and entropy objectives. Combining these insights with a dynamic rule verification architecture, we provide a formal proof that hot reloading of verified rule sets increases the asymptotic probability of compliant outputs. These findings underscore the necessity of principled anchor design and dual enforcement mechanisms to protect LLM-based agents against prompt injection attacks while maintaining compliance in evolving domains.

Estimating causal effect using machine learning (ML) algorithms can help to relax functional form assumptions if used within appropriate frameworks. However, most of these frameworks assume settings with cross-sectional data, whereas researchers often have access to panel data, which in traditional methods helps to deal with unobserved heterogeneity between units. In this paper, we explore how we can adapt double/debiased machine learning (DML) (Chernozhukov et al., 2018) for panel data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. This adaptation is challenging because DML's cross-fitting procedure assumes independent data and the unobserved heterogeneity is not necessarily additively separable in settings with nonlinear observed confounding. We assess the performance of several intuitively appealing estimators in a variety of simulations. While we find violations of the cross-fitting assumptions to be largely inconsequential for the accuracy of the effect estimates, many of the considered methods fail to adequately account for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. However, we find that using predictive models based on the correlated random effects approach (Mundlak, 1978) within DML leads to accurate coefficient estimates across settings, given a sample size that is large relative to the number of observed confounders. We also show that the influence of the unobserved heterogeneity on the observed confounders plays a significant role for the performance of most alternative methods.

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

Learning an agent model that behaves like humans-capable of jointly perceiving the environment, predicting the future, and taking actions from a first-person perspective-is a fundamental challenge in computer vision. Existing methods typically train separate models for these abilities, which fail to capture their intrinsic relationships and prevent them from learning from each other. Inspired by how humans learn through the perception-action loop, we propose EgoAgent, a unified agent model that simultaneously learns to represent, predict, and act within a single transformer. EgoAgent explicitly models the causal and temporal dependencies among these abilities by formulating the task as an interleaved sequence of states and actions. It further introduces a joint embedding-action-prediction architecture with temporally asymmetric predictor and observer branches, enabling synergistic optimization across all three capabilities. Comprehensive evaluations of EgoAgent on representative tasks such as image classification, egocentric future state prediction, and 3D human motion prediction demonstrate the superiority of our method. The code and trained models will be publicly available at https://github.com/zju3dv/EgoAgent.

The quadratic cost of scaled dot-product attention is a central obstacle to scaling autoregressive language models to long contexts. Linear-time attention and State Space Models (SSMs) provide scalable alternatives but are typically restricted to first-order or kernel-based approximations, which can limit expressivity. We introduce Higher-order Linear Attention (HLA), a causal, streaming mechanism that realizes higher interactions via compact prefix sufficient statistics. In the second-order case, HLA maintains a constant-size state and computes per-token outputs in linear time without materializing any n times n matrices. We give closed-form streaming identities, a strictly causal masked variant using two additional summaries, and a chunk-parallel training scheme based on associative scans that reproduces the activations of a serial recurrence exactly. We further outline extensions to third and higher orders. Collectively, these results position HLA as a principled, scalable building block that combines attention-like, data-dependent mixing with the efficiency of modern recurrent architectures. Project Page: https://github.com/yifanzhang-pro/HLA.

Causal transformer language models (LMs), such as GPT-3, typically require some form of positional encoding, such as positional embeddings. However, we show that LMs without any explicit positional encoding are still competitive with standard models, and that this phenomenon is robust across different datasets, model sizes, and sequence lengths. Probing experiments reveal that such models acquire an implicit notion of absolute positions throughout the network, effectively compensating for the missing information. We conjecture that causal attention enables the model to infer the number of predecessors that each token can attend to, thereby approximating its absolute position. Our findings indicate that causal LMs might derive positional awareness not only from the explicit positioning mechanism, but also from the effects of the causal mask.

Scaling multimodal alignment between video and audio is challenging, particularly due to limited data and the mismatch between text descriptions and frame-level video information. In this work, we tackle the scaling challenge in multimodal-to-audio generation, examining whether models trained on short instances can generalize to longer ones during testing. To tackle this challenge, we present multimodal hierarchical networks so-called MMHNet, an enhanced extension of state-of-the-art video-to-audio models. Our approach integrates a hierarchical method and non-causal Mamba to support long-form audio generation. Our proposed method significantly improves long audio generation up to more than 5 minutes. We also prove that training short and testing long is possible in the video-to-audio generation tasks without training on the longer durations. We show in our experiments that our proposed method could achieve remarkable results on long-video to audio benchmarks, beating prior works in video-to-audio tasks. Moreover, we showcase our model capability in generating more than 5 minutes, while prior video-to-audio methods fall short in generating with long durations.

As wearable devices enable continuous first-person recording, AI assistants must reason across long time horizons to recall past experiences-a capability known as episodic memory. Current benchmarks often rely on offline evaluation with access to entire video files, failing to simulate the streaming reality of wearable intelligence. We introduce S-EMBER (Streaming Egocentric Memory Benchmark for Episodic Retrieval), a large-scale benchmark comprising 3,141 videos totaling 388 hours of organic activity captured via Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses. S-EMBER formalizes grounded streaming episodic retrieval, a paradigm shift from global offline search to causal, active recall triggered by visual events in a continuous stream. We provide 9,448 QA pairs requiring manual visual proof through precise temporal localization and supporting flexible response lengths to simulate natural human-AI interaction. Our extensive benchmarking of frontier models uncovers a localization paradox: while semantic reasoning improves with parameter scale, temporal grounding precision remains a stagnant architectural bottleneck that does not benefit from brute-force increases in model size, resolution, or frame density. S-EMBER establishes a hardware-authentic foundation for developing grounded, reliable episodic memory in the next generation of wearable AI agents.

While safety alignment for Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) has gained significant attention, current paradigms primarily target malicious intent or situational violations. We propose shifting the safety frontier toward consequence-driven safety, a paradigm essential for the robust deployment of autonomous and embodied agents. To formalize this shift, we introduce OOD-MMSafe, a benchmark comprising 455 curated query-image pairs designed to evaluate a model's ability to identify latent hazards within context-dependent causal chains. Our analysis reveals a pervasive causal blindness among frontier models, with the highest 67.5% failure rate in high-capacity closed-source models, and identifies a preference ceiling where static alignment yields format-centric failures rather than improved safety reasoning as model capacity grows. To address these bottlenecks, we develop the Consequence-Aware Safety Policy Optimization (CASPO) framework, which integrates the model's intrinsic reasoning as a dynamic reference for token-level self-distillation rewards. Experimental results demonstrate that CASPO significantly enhances consequence projection, reducing the failure ratio of risk identification to 7.3% for Qwen2.5-VL-7B and 5.7% for Qwen3-VL-4B while maintaining overall effectiveness.

We revisit a basic question in sequence modeling: is explicit self-attention actually necessary for strong performance and reasoning? We argue that standard multi-head attention is best seen as a form of tensor lifting: hidden vectors are mapped into a high-dimensional space of pairwise interactions, and learning proceeds by constraining this lifted tensor through gradient descent. This mechanism is extremely expressive but mathematically opaque, because after many layers it becomes very hard to describe the model with a small family of explicit invariants. To explore an alternative, we propose an attention-free architecture based on Grassmann flows. Instead of forming an L by L attention matrix, our Causal Grassmann layer (i) linearly reduces token states, (ii) encodes local token pairs as two-dimensional subspaces on a Grassmann manifold via Plucker coordinates, and (iii) fuses these geometric features back into the hidden states through gated mixing. Information therefore propagates by controlled deformations of low-rank subspaces over multi-scale local windows, so the core computation lives on a finite-dimensional manifold rather than in an unstructured tensor space. On the Wikitext-2 language modeling benchmark, purely Grassmann-based models with 13 to 18 million parameters achieve validation perplexities within about 10 to 15 percent of size-matched Transformers. On the SNLI natural language inference task, a Grassmann-Plucker head on top of DistilBERT slightly outperforms a Transformer head, with best validation and test accuracies of 0.8550 and 0.8538 compared to 0.8545 and 0.8511. We analyze the complexity of Grassmann mixing, show linear scaling in sequence length for fixed rank, and argue that such manifold-based designs offer a more structured route toward geometric and invariant-based interpretations of neural reasoning.

Graph anomaly detection (GAD) has become an increasingly important task across various domains. With the rapid development of graph neural networks (GNNs), GAD methods have achieved significant performance improvements. However, fairness considerations in GAD remain largely underexplored. Indeed, GNN-based GAD models can inherit and amplify biases present in training data, potentially leading to unfair outcomes. While existing efforts have focused on developing fair GNNs, most approaches target node classification tasks, where models often rely on simple layer architectures rather than autoencoder-based structures, which are the most widely used architecturs for anomaly detection. To address fairness in autoencoder-based GAD models, we propose DisEntangled Counterfactual Adversarial Fair (DECAF)-GAD, a framework that alleviates bias while preserving GAD performance. Specifically, we introduce a structural causal model (SCM) to disentangle sensitive attributes from learned representations. Based on this causal framework, we formulate a specialized autoencoder architecture along with a fairness-guided loss function. Through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that DECAF-GAD not only achieves competitive anomaly detection performance but also significantly enhances fairness metrics compared to baseline GAD methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/Tlhey/decaf_code.

Alignment, endowing a pre-trained Large language model (LLM) with the ability to follow instructions, is crucial for its real-world applications. Conventional supervised fine-tuning (SFT) methods formalize it as causal language modeling typically with a cross-entropy objective, requiring a large amount of high-quality instruction-response pairs. However, the quality of widely used SFT datasets can not be guaranteed due to the high cost and intensive labor for the creation and maintenance in practice. To overcome the limitations associated with the quality of SFT datasets, we introduce a novel preference-oriented supervised fine-tuning approach, namely PoFT. The intuition is to boost SFT by imposing a particular preference: favoring the target model over aligned LLMs on the same SFT data. This preference encourages the target model to predict a higher likelihood than that predicted by the aligned LLMs, incorporating assessment information on data quality (i.e., predicted likelihood by the aligned LLMs) into the training process. Extensive experiments are conducted, and the results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. PoFT achieves stable and consistent improvements over the SFT baselines across different training datasets and base models. Moreover, we prove that PoFT can be integrated with existing SFT data filtering methods to achieve better performance, and further improved by following preference optimization procedures, such as DPO.

Counterfactual data augmentation has recently emerged as a method to mitigate confounding biases in the training data for a machine learning model. These biases, such as spurious correlations, arise due to various observed and unobserved confounding variables in the data generation process. In this paper, we formally analyze how confounding biases impact downstream classifiers and present a causal viewpoint to the solutions based on counterfactual data augmentation. We explore how removing confounding biases serves as a means to learn invariant features, ultimately aiding in generalization beyond the observed data distribution. Additionally, we present a straightforward yet powerful algorithm for generating counterfactual images, which effectively mitigates the influence of confounding effects on downstream classifiers. Through experiments on MNIST variants and the CelebA datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of our approach.

Three paradigmatic forms of inference recur across scientific reasoning: deduction, induction, and causal abduction. Reliably evaluating LLMs on these in scientific settings is currently out of reach: scientific benchmarks built on human annotations are costly and lack mechanistic ground truth, while synthetic logical-reasoning benchmarks do not resemble real scientific documents. We introduce SciR, a benchmark that combines multi-paradigm reasoning with controllable scientific rendering, anchored on three paradigmatic scientific problems. Tasks are generated from formal objects (deduction tree, inductive rule hypothesis, causal graph) to guarantee verifiable answers, then rendered into multi-document scientific discourse via per-track domain-tuned genres. The construction lets us independently vary two difficulty axes: how hard it is to extract the key information needed for inference, and how hard the principled inference itself is. We test six models. Both axes hurt every model, and their effects compound. The rendering even hurts neurosymbolic pipelines, which hand inference to a verified solver. The two axes yield a per-model extraction-vs-inference profile: for instance, reasoning models like deepseek-r1 mostly surpass non-reasoning instruct models on the inference axis. To our knowledge, SciR is the first multi-paradigm scientific-reasoning benchmark with parametric control on both extraction and inference difficulty.

Human conversation is organized by an implicit chain of thoughts that manifests as timed speech acts. Capturing this perceptual pathway is key to building natural full-duplex interactive systems. We introduce a framework that models this process as multi-level perception, and then reasons over conversational behaviors via a Graph-of-Thoughts (GoT). Our approach formalizes the intent-to-action pathway with a hierarchical labeling scheme, predicting high-level communicative intents and low-level speech acts to learn their causal and temporal dependencies. To train this system, we develop a high quality corpus that pairs controllable, event-rich dialogue data with human-annotated labels. The GoT framework structures streaming predictions as an evolving graph, enabling a transformer to forecast the next speech act, generate concise justifications for its decisions, and dynamically refine its reasoning. Experiments on both synthetic and real duplex dialogues show that the framework delivers robust behavior detection, produces interpretable reasoning chains, and establishes a foundation for benchmarking conversational reasoning in full duplex spoken dialogue systems.